Trade for Charlie Morton Might be Just What Chicago Cubs Need

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

It's no secret that the Cubs need starting pitching depth between today and the trade deadline. I also think it's no secret that they will acquire starting pitching. Jim Bowden of the Athletic claims that the Cubs are "all-in", and the hope of many Cub fans (myself included) is that the team acquires some top-end starting pitching talent—perhaps the Marlins' Edward Cabrera, for example. However, with a recent injury to Jameson Taillon and Cade Horton's impending innings limit, the Cubs could probably stand to acquire two pitchers. Enter: Orioles starting pitcher, Charlie Morton.

Let's get to the elephant in the room: his 5.47 ERA is ugly. But I'm going to ask you to bear with me for a few moments and set the ERA to the side, because I think Morton has some gas left in the tank. While it can be bad form to stake an argument to numbers defined by arbitrary end points, Morton has essentially had two seasons within 2025—one terrible, and one excellent. 

Over Morton's first 36 2/3 innings, the right-handed pitcher had a disgusting ERA that sat over 8.00, struck out under 20% of hitters, and walked a whopping 12.8% of those he faced. This is very much un-Morton-like; he's had just one season where he walked even 10% of hitters since his revolution in Houston back in 2016. It was looking pretty ugly for the pitcher early in 2025. Morton's numbers made him look washed.

It would be fair, at this stage of the 41-year-old's career, to think that this is Father Time coming for yet another player, but there was some hope left. Morton's fastball velocity hadn't fallen off a cliff entirely, with his average heater sitting at 93.9 mph (last year, he was at 94.3) while showing pretty similar Stuff+ to his career lines. Maybe something could get fixed, and he could find some footing.

Something seemed to click on May 17, however, because since then, he's been significantly better. Since then, in a sample size over 40 innings pitched (and six starts), he has posted a 2.88 ERA. While this kind of drastic improvement could suggest Morton has just been the recipient of positive luck or variance, I don't think the rest of his data supports that conclusion. Looking beyond his ERA improvement, we can see that his xFIP is 3.19 in that span, and goes along with a .349 opponent BABIP. As well, his strikeout rate has shot up to over 28% and his walk rate has dropped below 7%. Even better, Morton's average fastball velocity has jumped over 0.5 mph, as his average velocity now sits at 94.5 mph. He's not merely the beneficiary of good sequencing, stranding lots of runners, or great defensive support—signs we'd expect if a pitcher was just getting lucky. Maybe Morton's still fighting off Father Time, after all. 

To determine further whether or not Morton has rebounded, diagnosing the fix can help us decide whether we believe it or not. I think the issue for Morton was that he was getting himself in bad counts, thus making him fairly easy to hit. Looking back at Morton's Stuff+ chart, it's obvious based on pitch shape that his best pitch is his curveball. It shouldn't surprise us, then, that it's also his best whiff-inducing pitch, as well as his best put-away pitch. Comparatively, Morton's fastball is quite hittable, as hitters have a .534 SLG against this pitch on the year, compared to a .385 on the curve. Therefore, it's easy to conclude: more curveballs are good for Mr. Morton. The problem? Morton wasn't throwing enough strikes early in the count, and thus, HE was leaning heavily on the fastball. 

Look, here, then, at how Morton's in-zone% seems to work hand-in-hand with two things: more curveballs and fewer fastballs. The goal for Morton is clear: get ahead in the count.

Between Opening Day and his appearance against Minnesota on May 14, Charlie threw a strike on just 55.3% of hitters he faced. This is around 4-5% lower than Morton is used to getting, putting him behind in the count and forcing him to rely more on the fastball. He had one start, specifically against the Cincinnati Reds, where he seemed to bottom out, getting behind two out of every three hitters, giving up seven runs, and walking four, compared to just two strikeouts. That day, he didn't even last three full innings. He came back the next game and got blasted by the Tigers, once again struggling to find strikes. 

Things have looked up since then, however. Since re-joining the Baltimore rotation, Morton's first-strike% has jumped from just 55% to over 64%. Below is a chart highlighting Morton's swing-and-miss% by game. Take special notice of how Morton's whiffage was oscillating widely at the start of the year, as Morton's first-pitch-strike% struggled. Beginning May 17, however, things began to stabilize for the righty, as his swing-and-miss has been significantly better. To put the visualization into raw data, before May 17, Morton's swing-and-miss% was 9.3%. Since then, it's jumped to 16.5%. 

So what caused the swing-and-miss to jump? Pitch usage! Remember, Morton is more likely to use the fastball when behind, and through the first portion of the season (when his first-pitch-strike% was low) his fastball usage was over 34% and his curve usage was also 34%. This was a large departure from last year, when his curve usage was over 40% and his fastball usage was under 30%. But starting May 17, which coincides with an increase in first-pitch strikes, Morton's fastball usage has dipped to 27.2% (last year, it was 28.6%) and his curve soared to 42.5% (last year, he threw the curve 42.4% of the time). Go figure: when Morton has the ability to get to his best pitch more often, the results seem to follow.

Before we decide that Morton is 100% fixed, I will point out that Morton hasn't been entirely challenged over this recent 40-inning sample. He has only faced one top-10 offense in that span, according to wRC+, the Tampa Bay Rays—though it's fair to point out that the pitcher went six strong, striking out seven, walking none, surrendering only two hits and one run on that occasion. He's also had the benefit of seeing the Rangers, Angels and White Sox over that span, so if you'd like to remain a bit skeptical that prime Charlie Morton isn't entirely back, that's probably okay.

The great news for the Cubs is that Morton shouldn't cost much. At age 41, teams are likely to remain skeptical. The Orioles are starting their selling already, trading reliever Bryan Baker to Tampa on Thursday. They don't have the leverage of pretending they're contenders.

This shouldn't be the only trade the Cubs make, even for the rotation. (Please, Chicago, I implore you to go save Edward Cabrera from the depths of Miami.) Still, I think Morton is a wonderful secondary addition. Shota Imanaga's been worse than his top-line numbers suggest. Matthew Boyd has been amazing, but the concern of him slowing down has to remain in the back of your head, Horton is going to be limited at some point. Taillon's return date will be at least a fortnight past the trade deadline, so go get a second starter. If the Cubs want to be all-in, I'm not sure there's a better secondary pitching target than Morton. 

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What do you think of Charlie Morton? Do you buy his recent 6 starts as indicative of the rest of his 2025 season? Do you like someone else? Let us know in the comment section below!

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[Hot Sauce]

Great stuff as usual, Jason. Morton will be a tough sell for most on this forum. I, however, am buying what you’re selling here. My brother is a Braves fan and I have been a Charlie Morton apologist to him over the last several seasons.