Jordan Wicks is Back, and He's Not the Same Guy You Might Remember

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The discourse around Jordan Wicks's return has been fairly negative, in most of the circles I tend to run in. Whether that's my time here on NSBB, on reddit, or on social media, the Wicks return has been met with little fanfare. While I haven't seen the word "bust" associated with him, the general feeling I get is that many people are already chalking him up as one. Perhaps it's because his debut was made nearly two years ago, and he's been somewhat ineffective (coupled with a litany of nagging injuries which kept him out of the mainstream eye), but it's good to remember that in parts of three seasons at the highest level, Wicks hasn't even eclipsed 90 innings yet. 

Down in Iowa, his overall numbers don't paint a fantastic picture, either. His 4.06 ERA isn't special, and he's had a few clunkers, giving up seven runs in under three innings on April 26, and then (with just one start in between) he gave up another four, not lasting through five innings, on May 13. Add in some nagging injuries for Wicks and the Cubs' excellent season, and I wouldn't blame you if you missed that since that second poor showing, Wicks had been excellent—posting a 1.65 ERA, flashing improved fastball velocities, and striking out nearly one of every three hitters he faced.

On Sunday Night Baseball, against the St. Louis Cardinals, Wicks got a chance to show a bit of what he's been working on to the national audience, and it was pretty darn impressive. The first thing that caught my eye (and maybe yours, as well) was that the fastball velocity was way up, as he sat 94 mph on average (which is a far shout from the 91-92 mph pitcher we saw two years ago). He touched 96 on a strikeout. I will give some caution that this is probably a combination of knowing that his pitch count would be limited out of the bullpen, plus national audience juice, and that I wouldn't expect that velo moving forward. But the fastball caught my attention.

 

More than the velocity, the thing that really caught my eye was placement of the fastball; Jordan Wicks is a different guy. Yes, the video above shows a pitch that the ESPN K-Zone suggests is a ball (Statcast had a different idea, suggesting it clipped the zone), but it highlights a few things. First, it's his highest-velo pitch of the day at 96.1 mph, but also, we can see how he is using the fastball now, throwing it up in the zone. When Wicks first came up, his game was a pretty simple one: fastball (usually a sinker) down, changeup down, get groundballs. We can see that just from looking at his first game, way back in August 2023 against the Pirates. Pay attention to where the red dots (fastball), orange dots (sinker) and green dots (changeup) are. The latter two are located almost exclusively in the low-and-away corner of the zone, while the fastball sat middle and in on the hands.

Compare how he attacked hitters in 2023 to how he attacked the Cardinals Sunday night. You'll see a few sinkers down and away, but all of a sudden, the fastball is up (red is once again the fastball, green the changeup). He largely stays away from boring in on the hands of hitters the way he used to, and now focuses far more on the top third of the zone. It changes the eyeline of the hitters. No longer can you key in on an entire third of the plate. Now, you must defend up against the fastball and down against a change, sweeper, or slider. The more you can make a hitter consider, the better chance you have to catch them off-guard.

His fastball shape, as well, was different. He's getting a pretty decent amount of glove-side cut. In other words, his four-seam fastball is acting more like a cut fastball. That's an interesting highly Cubs-coded development. How he continues to use his slightly different shape will be something to follow.

Not only is the fastball different, but the lefty is flashing a different pitch arsenal. It's not a complete revolution—at his core, Wicks is still a fastball-changeup guy—but he's showing a slider/sweeper more than he has in the past. Five of his 41 pitches were in the sweeper/slider category, which can help add a chase/whiff pitch to his arsenal. Shota Imanaga uses a sweeper to add a little something extra to his fastball/splitter combination, using it just enough to make you know he has it, and Wicks adding in a horizontal mover is just enough to keep your eyes from zoning in on north-south. Since Wicks (unlike Imanaga) also has glove-side action on the fastball, he can use his slider a bit the way Justin Steele uses his, as well: to keep hitters reading any sidespin or glove-side movement from knowing which pitch they're seeing.

Following other Cubs pitchers (such as Colin Rea), he's not using the sinker very much anymore, either, and I'm okay with that. Sinkers have terrible splits against opposite-handed hitters (though they can be used to attack same-sided hitters). For Wicks, this creates a pretty glaring issue. Wicks is left-handed, and most hitters he'll see as a starter or long reliever will be right-handed. The league has figured out that left-handed hitters just don't hit left-handed pitchers very well, so Wicks can expect a heavy dosage of righty muscle when he pitches. The result? Only two sinkers Sunday night, which is the correct game plan. The Cubs' lefthander had already begun to decrease his sinker usage in 2024, but seeing him dump the pitch against righties in his return to the bigs was encouraging.

I'm going to stop short of telling you to go out and buy a Jordan Wicks Authentic replica jersey, and remind you that Sunday night was a 41-pitch outing that didn't last four full innings. His velocity was likely a bit higher than we should expect moving forward, and he did only generate four whiffs, so it wasn't as if he was entirely domineering. We'll need to see more of this before Wicks becomes a staple in Chicago for the remained of the 2025 season. 

But I will say that I am excited about the continued development. Throwing 94-96 mph out of the bullpen makes me more interested in Wicks as a member of the pen, if they choose to go that route. His fastball placement with that velocity, even more so. He's also done enough at Iowa that getting him a few looks as a starter is something I'd advocate for. He's been pretty great in Iowa, and he's clearly a different version of himself than we've seen in the past. I doubt that he's going to change the entire rotation dynamic, but no one is asking him to. If Wicks can simply be another Rea, that would be great. I know it's been a bit since we have seen Wicks have sustained success in the majors, but he's a former first-round pick; has flirted with being a top-100 prospect; and has had successful short stints already. Add in some cool changes in how he's attacking hitters, and I think the Cubs might have something here. 

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What did you think of Jordan Wicks' first appearance of the season Sunday night? Did you notice the fastball velocity or placement? Would you rather see him in the rotation or in the bullpen? Let us know in the comments below!

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