Waiting is the Hardest Part: Why Trades Might Not Happen Until the Last Minute

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Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Here we are at the beginning of July, just after Independence Day. As you know, the MLB trade deadline is the evening of July 31, and other than an insane and surprising Rafael Devers trade (which probably wouldn't have involved the Cubs but is fun to think about), nothing really has happened beyond a few waiver claims and minor trades. I've spoken at length, including on our hobby podcast, about how even the Cubs' earliest trades would have happened around this time (i.e., the Jeff Samardzija trade right as fireworks were going off a decade ago), and conventional wisdom suggests that any trade now, a month before the deadline, would require a premium to be surrendered. 

But there is another reason that I think is more impactful to most of the teams in MLB right now not named the Colorado Rockies, and that is the standings. Just past the halfway mark and with a week to go until the All-Star break (not to mention Sunday's MLB Draft), aside from the bottom three or four teams in either league, most teams are within seven games of the final playoff spot. Even the beleaguered Braves, who have suffered plenty of injuries and poor performances for what should have been a contender this season, are within 8.5 games. They would have to leapfrog six teams to get into that final spot, but there are over 70 games remaining for everyone and a few weeks until they have to make the "buy or sell" decision.

In the unusually mediocre American League, even though the Tigers and Astros have comfortable leads in their divisions and Toronto is taking advantage of a Yankees slump to move ahead, the Wild Card spots are there for the taking, so we are likely stuck in a waiting game until the days before the deadline, particularly with many organizations focusing their resources on the draft in the meantime.

Another consideration is the direction of a few clubs who would clearly be selling in the pre-expanded postseason era. Other than the Rockies, who should probably fire everyone (including their owner) and start over, most of the other teams have potential in the near future and might not want to do a full tear down, which limits the types of trades that could be available unless an aggressive team (maybe the Cubs?) pulls the trigger on a massive overpay. The general feeling I have in the modern baseball atmosphere is that trades where only one team clearly "wins" are no more. For the most part, you see both teams get exactly what they want for their overall vision going forward, similar to the recent Michael Busch or Kyle Tucker trades the Cubs were involved in. Certainly, unlike the amusing Twitter GM trades, you are unlikely to see a "steal" trade where one side offers their scraps and unwanted players for another team's superstar(s), because force trade is not enabled in the real world, barring a particularly gullible ownership group. 

The Orioles might well elect not to jeopardize a young, controlled core with that much potential to either add or subtract right now, despite being barely ahead of the bottom of the barrel. Ditto a team like the Washington Nationals, who have shown some spark but are battling through their own growing pains right now. I surmise that things could change rapidly in the games surrounding the All-Star break, as we see which teams give off indicators one way or the other, and then we can start dreaming on plucking some talent away from the Royals or the Twins, or grab the best available power bat from the Diamondbacks. Until then, it is no surprise that we are in an extreme holding pattern, and teams at the top will just have to keep grinding while awaiting their opportunity to strike.

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