Are the Cubs and Royals Inevitable Trade Partners?

[Paul Niemiec]

Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

With the trade deadline four weeks away, it's time to get serious about improving this Cubs club. Although they remain atop the division, a bit of that early shine has started to dim. The bullpen hasn’t faltered much, with baseball’s best ERA in the month of June, but every contender adds relievers at the deadline. The starting pitching, on the other hand, has the 7th-highest ERA in baseball since June 1. Ben Brown was sent down; Colin Rea looks like Colin Rea again; and Jameson Taillon seems to want to pitch in the home run derby.

On the offensive side, they are starting to rely too much on home runs. In June, the Cubs were 27th in baseball in on-base percentage. Justin Turner still has not figured things out, and it’s time to think about a short-term contingency plan for Matt Shaw. If the Cubs want to fix a few of these issues with a single trade, the Royals have some intriguing pieces and a history of trading with the Cubs. This season has not gone the way many anticipated for Kansas City, after their surprise playoff berth last season. At 40-47, the Royals are 14 games behind Detroit in the division, and 5.5 games back in the Wild Card race. They would also need to leapfrog six teams ahead of them. The future could still be very bright in Kansas City, but it sounds like this team might be looking to retool for next season. So who would make sense for the Cubs to target?

Starting Pitching
Cole Ragans isn't going anywhere, and he's injured anyway—but guys like Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Kris Bubic could be in play. Starting with Lugo, the 35-year-old has picked up right where he left off in 2024. He has a 2.74 ERA (albeit with a less impressive 4.10 FIP) and an ability to work deep into games. He comes with a player option for 2026 at $15 million, but with his performance this year, it would not be shocking to see him test the market for a two- or three-year deal. Lugo has some postseason experience, and would likely slot in right behind Shota Imanaga in a playoff series.

Similar to Lugo, Wacha is a veteran who has experienced a bit of a career resurgence since signing with Kansas City. He has an ERA of 3.62 through 17 starts, showing durability and a knack for getting batters out despite posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career, at 18.3%. Wacha did sign an extension with the Royals prior to this season and will be under contract through 2027, with a club option for 2028. Normally, a team hoping to return to contention probably would not want to trade a starter with years of control, but the frugal Royals might be itching to get Wacha off their books. Due to his age, there is some risk here for the Cubs, but the Cubs have more financial flexibility than the Royals and acquiring Wacha would likely cost less than Lugo or the next guy on this list. ZiPS projections have Wacha looking like a fine fourth or fifth starter in a rotation, even as he climbs into his mid-30s, and could be a worthy investment for 2025 and beyond.

Lastly, Kris Bubic is enjoying a breakout year, with a 2.25 ERA and 101 strikeouts. He's accumulated 3.3 WAR. Bubic is under team control through 2026 and would give the Cubs the best lefty trio in baseball next season, once Justin Steele returns. It is largely assumed that Bubic would not be traded, but MLB insider Jon Morosi hinted that if the Royals received two MLB-ready bats, they would have to consider it. Who would these bats be? Likely Owen Caissie as the first, but the Royals may also want Moisés Ballesteros or Kevin Alcántara as well. Alcántara alone should be enough to get a conversation going around Lugo.

As an added bonus, Lorenzen would not be a bad guy to target as a depth piece. His 4.91 ERA in 16 starts is not the most attractive statistic, but he can chew up innings late in the season and has experience pitching out of the bullpen. This is a guy the Cubs can find a use for immediately.

Relief Pitching
The Royals have quite a few relievers who are pitching well this season. Carlos Estévez, Steven Cruz, and Lucas Erceg all have ERAs under 3.00, and opposing hitters are batting under .200 against them as well. Taylor Clarke, John Schreiber and lefty Angel Zerpa are having solid seasons, too. Even though relievers are always the hottest commodity at the deadline, a Royals team that wants to contend as early as next season is not going to want to move many of these guys. Five of the 6 players mentioned above are pre-arbitration or hitting arbitration this year, so a small-market team is going to want to hold them.

Estévez, however, just signed a two-year contract worth $22 million. Similar to Wacha, the Royals might jump at an opportunity to clear this from their books. With 22 saves and a 2.08 ERA, Estévez has to be one of the top targets for the Cubs. Daniel Palencia has been a nice surprise, but another high-leverage arm with a proven track record would make the 8th and 9th innings go a whole lot smoother come October. Estévez may be due for some regression, as suggested by his 3.49 FIP, but he is still having a quality season. With the success of Palencia, Drew Pomeranz, Ryan Pressly and Brad Keller, Estévez won’t need to be the guy, either. Estévez to the Cubs sounds like something that needs to happen at the deadline, because it really should have happened over the offseason.

Infield
The Royals are a team that desperately needs hitting, so don’t expect any big-name, controllable pieces like Vinnie Pasquantino or Maikel García to be moved. The Cubs also don’t have a need for a big-time bat, but as I mentioned earlier, there needs to be another option for third base. This is not saying Shaw should be replaced, but there needs to be a more competent option than Jon Berti or Vidal Bruján. Would the Royals listen on a Jonathan India trade? He is not doing much, with a .247 average, only 4 homers, and a .663 OPS, but his career numbers and age (28) suggest he’s a better player than what we have seen in Kansas City.

He also has another year of arbitration eligibility remaining, and has started over 20 games each at third, second, and left field, so he can fill a utility role both this season and next. Even with his struggles this year, his OPS is over 100 points higher than the Cubs’ third baseman on the year. This is another guy that the Royals would happily move if they find a taker, and it should only cost the Cubs a fringe prospect or two.

The pitching in Kansas City is going to be their most valuable trade chips, but an India trade would go a long way in lengthening the bench and providing a replacement for Shaw if this turns out to just not be his year. One way or another, these potential trade partners seem to be circling ever nearer one another.

View full article