Jameson Taillon Made Sweeping Progress Sunday. Now, His Cutter Needs a Trim.

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-Imagn Images

The Cubs dropped the rubber game of their series against the Astros and sealed a losing road trip Sunday, as Houston starter Framber Valdez shut them down and Jose Altuve homered for a 2-0 Astros victory. Jameson Taillon needed 107 pitches to get through 4 2/3 innings, and he gave up the two-run wall scraper with which Altuve won the game in the bottom of the fifth. However, for Taillon, the start still marked meaningful progress.

In addition to striking out four and walking just one, Taillon yielded only one homer, after allowing three against the Cardinals on Tuesday and two to the Brewers on June 19. He's given up far too many long balls this season, but locked things in better on Sunday, thanks to much better feel for his sweeper.

First, consider a couple of images. Here's where Taillon located his sweepers in 2023 and 2024, with the locations only of hits allowed on sweepers superimposed over the map of all sweepers.

Obviously, the sweeper is a pitch Taillon needs to throw to the outside corner of the plate to righties, and even to work off that corner for chases and empty swings. The darker, denser plot overlaid onto all the locations shows where batters hit him hardest on that offering, but there's only so much damage you can do on a ball on the edge of the zone. That's especially true of righty batters, for whom the pitch is breaking away from their barrel.

Here's the same plot and overlay for 2025.

This is for all his starts prior to Sunday's, by the way. The difference is subtle, but clear. Taillon has tended to make a few more mistakes over the middle with that pitch, and batters have found it right in the middle of the plate, rather than out on the edges. That's a pitch you can turn on; that's a ball you can hit out of the park.

On Sunday, however, Taillon's sweeper was better. He located it more consistently, and when he made the rare mistake with it, it tended to be in counts where a hitter was defensive or prone to taking it for a strike.

That's how the Cubs need Taillon to execute on his sweeper every fifth day. He got three whiffs on 10 swings, earned a couple of called strikes, and forced weak contact even when he gave up a hit on it. The pitch had slightly more depth and slightly more sweep than its season averages. If he can replicate this version of the pitch, it can be an out-getter for him, as it was in 2024.

Alas, on Sunday, the cutter betrayed Taillon. He tried to sneak one past Altuve in the fifth, and when the pitch stayed in the middle of the plate (rather than veering to the outer edge, as intended), Altuve got the barrel to it, even if he was a bit early and a bit underneath it. The resulting fly ball wouldn't have left Wrigley Field, unless the wind was blowing out, but it easily made the Crawford Boxes.

That mistake was costly for Taillon, whose cutter stayed on the outer half but didn't consistently work down and away from righty batters Sunday.

 

Just as the sweeper found the consistency he's been craving, Taillon's cutter got him into trouble. He tried to lean on that pitch more Sunday than he has for most of this season, as the Astros' uniquely righty-heavy lineup forced some adjustments. Ultimately, though, he wasn't successful with that change in approach or execution.

That's been the unfortunate constant for him this year: the glove-side offerings aren't working as intended. Taillon's sweeper and cutter were worth a combined 17 runs prevented last year. This season, that pair of would-be weapons have been 14 runs worse than average. That swing is drastic and troubling, especially from a pitcher who's always been known for his ability to spin the ball and throw good breaking stuff.

Over the last few years, Taillon's arsenal has evolved. He's become more adept with the sinker, and (this season, thanks to the new grip he's using) with the changeup. He's throwing from a slightly higher slot, and his four-seamer has more carry. Alas, with that tilt toward more good arm-side movement, he's lost some of the deception and command that he used to achieve on his glove-side offerings—especially the sweeper and the cutter.

The slight change in the interaction of his pitch movements has been good for the sinker and changeup, but bad for the cutter and sweeper. It's possible to adapt to that, and indeed, Taillon is throwing many fewer cutters this year—but that adaptation can be difficult and slow. It requires a pitcher to embrace the idea that their identity has changed. Taillon, long a guy who leans on the four-seamer and utilizes multiple breaking balls, might now be better off leaning into his sinker, changeup and curveball. He's comfortable with the curve, because it's always been there for him, but the change and sinker aren't yet moving up in his hierarchy of pitch usage. Changing small things about grip, arm slot or mechanics is one thing. Bringing your mental game into harmony with those physical changes is another.

Whether they upgrade their starting rotation soon or not, the Cubs need Taillon to be a reliable starting pitcher for them the rest of the way. If they make it to the playoffs, they'll want him to make at least one start there. While he's had some rocky outings this year, Sunday's was a small step in the right direction. More will be needed.

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