What Would a Cubs Version of the Rafael Devers Trade Have Looked Like?

[Paul Niemiec]

Image courtesy of © Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

About 10 days have passed since one of the most shocking trades we have ever seen in MLB, and Rafael Devers has settled in with his new team. It's time to look at this trade from a Cubs point of view. Multiple sources reported that the Cubs “inquired” about the availability of Devers sometime before he was traded to San Francisco. Since there has been no information regarding a potential trade package, we are safe to assume that their “inquiry” did not go much deeper than surface level. Although the trade is done, and with the Giants stealing one of the game's premier sluggers in a salary dump, it’s fun to hypothesize about what a trade to Chicago could have looked like.

First, let's briefly review what led to the trade in the first place. Devers signed a 10-year deal worth $313 million prior to the 2023 season, with the deal set to kick in in 2024. This contract was originally thought to be a “make-good” for Boston’s Mookie Betts blunder, whereby the future Hall of Famer was traded to the Dodgers in a lopsided deal that felt like an insult to the fans. The 28-year-old has put up elite offensive numbers during his career in Boston, and was seemingly set to be the veteran presence in charge of leading their next wave of elite prospects.

Then, late in the most recent offseason, the Red Sox signed Gold Glove third baseman Alex Bregman. According to myriad reports since, the Red Sox blindsided Devers with the Bregman signing, or misled Devers by saying Bregman would get reps at second base. The idea that Devers should be pulled off third base was not exactly ludicrous. He has consistently ranked as one of the worst defensive third basemen in baseball since 2021. Despite this, Devers initially did not want to move off third when Bregman was signed, but eventually accepted his role as a DH.

Just a few months later, the Red Sox approached Devers with another ask: play first base because Triston Casas is done for the year. This time, Devers stood his ground and refused, creating quite a bit of discourse among fans, the media, and former players. This is when the grumblings came out regarding a possible trade, but it all seemed like hearsay. After all, this team was largely considered offseason winners, and ready to turn a corner with top prospects Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell all set to debut in 2025. Instead, the Red Sox’s relationship with Devers became unmendable. It was clear that Devers and top baseball executive Craig Breslow were not on the same page, and with Breslow not being part of the group that signed Devers, he didn't feel the same attachment to Devers that the Boston fans do. However, the point of this piece is not to dive into the questions regarding Devers being a team player; or Breslow’s robotic nature of running a baseball team. Let's talk about the resulting transaction.

The Trade:

• San Francisco receives 3B/1B/DH Rafael Devers
• Boston receives RHP Jordan Hicks, LHP Kyle Harrison, OF James Tibbs III, RHP Jose Bello

The real key that sent Devers to the Giants wasn't the return package, but the payroll relief. The Red Sox cleared nearly $250 million in future obligations with this trade, and although they are assuming Hicks’s slightly underwater deal, it gives Breslow a lot more room to get the players he wants next winter—or perhaps offer an extension to another young guy. Here is a brief synopsis of who they acquired:

Hicks is the name most Cub fans will recognize, from his days as a Cardinal. The fireballer has appeared in 13 games this season, starting 9 of them, and has an ERA north of 6.00. Since signing his deal before last season, Hicks has produced 0 WAR (.9 in 2024, -.9 in 2025). He's shifted back to the bullpen, which is probablt where he belonged all along. 

Harrison, the Giants’ top prospect (as well as the baseball’s top left-handed pitching prospect, according to some rankers) in both 2023 and 2024, is no longer that caliber of commodity. He hasn't been bad, with a 4.48 ERA through 182 Major League innings, but he has not looked like anyone's next great starter. Now there is some ambiguity in whether Harrison will be given more chances to start, or if he will pitch in relief. Boston's first move was to option him to Triple-A Worcester, which is telling.

A powerful left-handed slugger taken with pick No. 13 in the 2024 MLB Draft (and who was a popular choice for the Cubs at pick 14), Tibbs has shown some promise. So far, however, he struggles heavily against left-handed pitching and looks more like a project than a sure thing. Bello throws hard, but is very much the lottery ticket throw-in of this trade.

For those protective of the Cubs’ top prospects, this deal indicates that Devers could be acquired without them. It does not look like the Cubs would have needed to include any of Matt Shaw, Cade Horton, Moisés Ballesteros, or Owen Caissie, although the last of those might have been a good stand-in for Tibbs. The difficulty in putting together a package for Devers would have arisen elsewhere

The Giants included Hicks to offset some of the money, but the Cubs do not have a pitcher with a similar contract situation to Hicks's. In theory, Jameson Taillon could be that guy, but the Cubs need him—and all the rotation depth they can find. A money sink isn't necessarily an integral part of this deal, but... well, let's come back to that.

Harrison also doesn't have a directly comparable player on the Cubs. Jordan Wicks comes nearest, but his stock is down more than Harrison's is. He wouldn't have moved the needle for Boston, in all likelihood.

The most intriguing possibility here might be more along the lines of a challenge trade—an old-fashioned 1-for-1. The Cubs would have needed to make room for Devers at DH or first base (which he is now open to playing). Those spots are handled by Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch, and while Busch has been good, Suzuki is the most valuable right-handed hitter in the lineup. So here is the hypothetical trade: Devers for Michael Busch (with the Cubs getting some relief from Devers's contract in the process).

Boston has a glaring hole at first, and Casas's patellar tendon rupture leaves his future cloudy. On the Cubs side, it creates an interesting hypothetical: can Suzuki take reps at first base? He played infield in Japan, and seems eager to play defense whenever he can. Or, could the Cubs have simply slotted Devers in as the new long-term first baseman?

The point is, a Devers trade would not be a clean fit, but he is the kind of hitter that you make the adjustments for, so you can get him in the lineup. For 2025, Devers and Kyle Tucker would have been in the same lineup. That would move the team into the “best lineup in baseball” discussion, if they aren't there already. 

We do know the Cubs’ spending habits, and a Devers trade would all but certainly have reduced their chances of re-signing Tucker this winter. If Devers was a free agent now, he would likely be commanding the type of money Tucker will want, or a very similar deal to the $500 million given to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Eight years and roughly $250 million is a fair structure, compared to what we are seeing players of Devers's quality make. It clearly had enough value to the Giants that the Red Sox were able to procure some interesting pieces, rather than merely getting out from under the deal.

In reality, of course, the Cubs weren't doing this kind of a deal without Boston eating a substantial amount of that money—not the majority, but more than a nominal amount. John Henry, Craig Breslow and company were unwilling to eat the contract, so they made the deal with the first team who would; it is that simple. If this is an opportunity that the Cubs passed on in favor of a pursuit of Kyle Tucker; then so be it. If they didn't like the return they were asked for or the way they'd need to twist their roster to accommodate Devers, that's understandable. If ownership does let itself get outbid for Tucker, however, we may be sitting here nine months from now wondering what could have been.

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