We Can Actually Pinpoint the Ways Pete Crow-Armstrong Has Improved in Center Field This Year

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

Look, Pete Crow-Armstrong doesn't have to be a technician to rate as one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball. He has what football people call "recovery speed"; he could afford to get a late break on a ball or take a wrong first step, and still get to most things. Last season, he covered 2.6 feet more than an average outfielder over the moment of time Statcast labels as the "Burst" period, from 1.6 to 3.0 seconds after the ball leaves the bat. That was the best number in the majors.

Before that Burst period, though, comes the time from the crack of the bat to 1.5 seconds of hang time, which Statcast categorizes under Reaction. That's the window in which a fielder can get a head start on the ball, reducing the need for sheer speed to catch up to it. Last season, in his first extended stint in the majors, Crow-Armstrong was actually no better than a typical center fielder at getting moving in the right direction.

It's not quite clear based on how the graphic pops up, so to guide you, Crow-Armstrong's dot in this chart is the topmost, reddest one in the column just to the left of that box. As you can see, he was essentially average in terms of Reaction. He did two things meaningfully better than most outfielders, over the first three seconds of the ball's flight. The first, of course, is that acceleration and closing speed, categorized under Burst. The second is route efficiency. Crow-Armstrong took more direct paths to the ball than a typical outfielder, which (combined with that sheer speed) allowed him to stretch his range beyond what would be implied by his initial jump.

He was superb at getting to balls, even last year. He racked up lots of value that way. If you watched with a discerning eye, though, you could see him needing to make up for a fairly unremarkable first step, and you could see him taking big risks by crashing into walls or diving at full speed on hard-hit balls. He was never beating the ball to its spot, at the edges of his range, so much as catching up to it before it could quite reach its destination.

This year, it's a different story. His Burst is now 3.0 feet better than an average outfielder, which means he's leading the league even more handily. However, he's also doing that after getting one of the better first steps in the league. 

Again, for clarity's sake: the dot corresponding to Crow-Armstrong is the bright red one to the left of his ear. You can see the migration here. Yes, he's actually taking much less efficient routes to the ball—but only because he's learned to gain so much ground early in the flight of the ball that he can make late adjustments and avoid having to catch any but the toughest balls at full sprint. He's reading the ball so well and so early that he's a full five feet ahead of an average outfielder within three seconds, so giving a bit of that back on some balls (to bend his run away from a wall, for instance, or to bring his body under control for a throw, or to avoid a collision with a teammate) is no loss.

Here's just one, very subtle example of the difference this makes. Last year, in Colorado, he ran down a long fly ball to left-center field.

That's a fine play. Crow-Armstrong only had 4.4 seconds to cover 73 feet, and he had to angle slightly back toward the wall on the way. In the thin air of Coors Field in Denver, it's always especially tough to track a hard-hit ball with lots of hang time. He got to it, though, and still had his feet beneath him. On the other hand, he caught it at almost full speed, forcing him to spin and fire without loading anything into his throw, just to hold the trailing runner. Aaron Schunk got to third base on the play, with ease.

Here's an almost identical play, from this April in West Sacramento.

Crow-Armstrong had to cover 73 feet on this ball, too, but had a half-blink less time: 4.3 seconds. Yet, he's already decelerating when he gets to it. Not only did he face no threat of running headlong into Ian Happ or the wall, but if there had been baserunners aboard, he would have been in better position to make a play on them after running down the fly ball. All year, Crow-Armstrong has gotten not only to balls other players wouldn't reach, but to balls most players reach, under more control and via a safer route than they would take. 

Some of the credit for this goes to excellent outfield instructor Quintin Berry, but Crow-Armstrong deserves a heaping helping of praise, too. He's come in for his first full big-league season with a new level of refinement in his defensive game, turning him into the best version of himself—and the best all-around center fielder the league has seen since Kevin Kiermaier was in his prime. Crow-Armstrong's unexpected offensive breakout has drawn tons of attention, but don't overlook the way he's also stepped up his already strong fielding.

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