Do These National League Sellers Have Anything For The Cubs?

[Matthew Lenz]

With the July 31 MLB trade deadline looming on the horizon, urgency will begin to mount for many Major League Baseball teams. While some clubs are firmly entrenched in playoff contention and will be looking to bolster their rosters, there is a distinct group already facing the reality of a lost season. So, who are the likely sellers from the National League? What valuable assets might they put on the market, and how could the Chicago Cubs leverage these opportunities to their advantage? Let's delve into the teams poised to power the rumor mill, and the potential impact on the Cubs’ playoff aspirations.

Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are on pace for all sorts of records, and not in a good way. They're currently on pace to win 31 ball games, which is 10 fewer than the 2024 Chicago White Sox. The Rockies don't have much in the form of rentals, with starters Germán Márquez (6.62 ERA) and Austin Gomber (just returned from a shoulder injury) the only expiring deals, but that's not to say they don't have trade chips. Most notably, many teams will be calling about starter Kyle Freeland (controlled through 2026) and third baseman Ryan McMahon (controlled through 2027).

Freeland’s surface numbers are bloated by pitching in Coors Field half the time. On the road, the lefty has a 3.64 ERA (3.31 FIP) and a 14.6-point difference between his strikeout and walk rates. As for McMahon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today has reported that the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Cubs have already shown interest in the 30-year-old. Like Freeland, McMahon’s surface stats are impacted by Coors, but the effect is the opposite: a .739 OPS overall drops by nearly 200 points on the road. Other, less notable names who could be available are infielders Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer, who both have mutual options for 2026. 

Miami Marlins
The Marlins are 15 games under .500 and well outside of the playoff picture. However, they are the youngest team in Major League Baseball, which makes it a challenge to know how much they're willing to sell. Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, and Agustín Ramírez have all been great, but they're also in their pre-arbitration years. Would the rebuilding Marlins really sell what looks to be a solid core of hitters? I doubt it. On the other hand, starting pitchers Cal Quantrill (a free agent at season's end) and Sandy Alcántara (controllable through 2026) could be attractive buy-low options at the deadline. Quantrill has an ERA 1.27 runs higher than his FIP, and Alcántara, a former Cy Young award winner, has underperformed his ERA by 2.43 runs. Both, then, are better than a glance at their numbers would say.

However, both have below-average strikeout-to-walk rate differentials, suggesting their upside might be limited. The Marlins have gotten some good production out of their bullpen from guys like Ronny Henriquez, Janson Junk, and Patrick Monteverde. While these guys are controllable, it would make sense for the Marlins to listen to offers on any relievers.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are in a race for second-worst team in the NL with the Marlins. There's been (mostly sarcastic) speculation that they may trade starter Paul Skenes, but I don't think they will do that yet. Instead, they have a few assets who will likely have a market over the next month and a half. There's already been rumors floating around regarding infielder Isiah Kiner-Faleda, who has a solid (but empty) .714 OPS. Other solid players on expiring deals include outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Pham, as well as starter Andrew Heaney, and reliever Ryan Burocki.

Aside from Burocki, whose peripherals suggest some positive regression, all those players have been more than serviceable this season. However, the most valuable realistic trade chip is current closer David Bednar, who is controlled through the 2026 season. In 20 appearances, the righty has a 3.42 ERA, 2.14 FIP, and a 29.2 K%-BB%. He may end up being the most sought-after reliever on the market. 

Cubs’ Needs
Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer recently confirmed the team's priority for the upcoming trade deadline: pitching. On a New York Post podcast last week, Hoyer explicitly stated the Cubs will target "both rotation and bullpen" help. This declaration, while seemingly obvious given the team's recent injuries to their pitching staff, is a notable public affirmation of their intentions. While the Cubs anticipate some internal pitching reinforcements later in the season, there's no guarantee these players will return at full strength and immediately contribute to a playoff push. Despite acquiring Kyle Tucker this offseason, the Cubs still possess valuable prospect capital in the upper levels of their farm system, which could be used to facilitate trades.

With an offense that ranks among the best in baseball, Hoyer's focus on pitching makes perfect sense. The key question now is whether the Cubs will pursue a high-impact acquisition or opt for more modest additions.

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What level of pitching upgrade do you think the Cubs should target? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Bertz]

I generally think trying to predict specific trades is a fool's errand.  That said if I were trying to call my shot I think Owen Caissie and a SP prospect for Sandy Alcantara feels kind of glove perfect.  Assuming Alcantara continues rounding into form of course.

I'm also really interested in David Bednar.  I hadn't realized until I saw his numbers on screen earlier this past series that he was fixed.  And given some of his recent struggles plus the salaries that closers get in arb I would guess the player return for him would be fairly modest.