Q-Scores, Pt. II: How Quintin Berry, Jose Javier Have Maximized Cubs' Baserunners

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

The Cubs were quick to snatch up certain personnel for their coaching staff last fall. Quintin Berry was a priority; Craig Counsell convinced him to follow him down to Chicago from their previous collaboration in Milwaukee. So, too, were Jose Javier and Matt Talarico. Javier is the team's first-base coach and infield instructor, while Berry is their third-base coach and outfield instructor. Both Javier and Berry, however, have their hands deep in the team's baserunning, which has been a catalytic force for the league's most dynamic offense thus far. Talarico, for his part, preaches the same emphases and fundamentals of baserunning throughout the team's farm system.

This was nothing short of an overhaul in the team's approach to running the bases, with special attention paid to making sure they would be as dangerous as possible when stealing bags. It's worked, in eye-popping fashion. Only the Rays and the Brewers have more steals than the Cubs' 76 so far, and even that is just because those much weaker offenses need the running game much more than the Cubs do. Chicago has been caught fewer times and enjoys a higher success rate than either of the small-market teams just ahead of them in terms of stealing bases. The Cubs are a baserunning juggernaut.

Some of that is down to the new rules that govern the game, going back to 2023, of course. The running game is far more accessible and uncontrollable since the advent of the pitch timer, with its attendant limits on pitcher disengagements with the rubber. Another part is the team Jed Hoyer and his staff have cobbled together, with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner as the tip of the spear and Kyle Tucker joining them in sowing chaos after the offseason trade that folded him into the mix. The final ingredient, though, is the shared and accumulated wisdom of Javier and Berry, and the way they've helped the whole crew level up.

On their 90 stolen-base attempts this year, the Cubs have averaged 12.5 feet of lead distance gained from the pitcher's first move to their release of the pitch. That's good for second-best in the league, trailing only the Yankees. (That's no coincidence; both Javier and Talarico were pilfered from the Yankees specifically because they helped develop the Bombers' ability to establish bouncing, extra-length leads.) They're 25.1 feet from the base they're leaving behind by the time the hurler cuts the ball loose, second only to the Padres in that area, and with the speed and skill of the trio of Crow-Armstrong, Tucker and Hoerner, that's a head start for which opponents have no chance to make up.

Here's one of the times when Hoerner didn't even get a perfect jump, but had enough margin for error to take a base, anyway, thanks to the system installed by Berry and Javier and with their tutelage on getting reads.

Other examples are even more stark, though. Tucker specializes in catching opponents sleeping, which is something the coaches have helped the whole team spot better. Here, with two outs and Tucker already on second, the pitcher becomes inattentive. Sure, you don't want to be thrown out there, but if you get a jump like this one, there's literally zero chance of that—and by moving up, you put yourself in position to score more easily on an outfield hit or to come home on a wild pitch, passed ball or infield single.

The Cubs are also thoroughly ruthless with opponents if and when a pitcher uses up their two allotted unsuccessful pickoff attempts. Here's Tucker, after Sean Burke had exhausted his within one at-bat, taking off so aggressively he nearly fooled himself.

The team has also broken out the double-steal frequently, perhaps more so than any other team in the league. Here, notice (by following the bouncing helmet right off the bottom edge of the shot) the humongous head start Ian Happ gets, leaving only the tougher option of throwing to try to nail the trailing runner. Double-steals are underrated offensive plays. When the opportunity arises, executing one is a great way to increase the chances of a crooked number.

Nor do the Cubs reserve these lessons and their value for the guys who run most often. Here's a pivotal, high-leverage steal by Michael Busch, made possible by the techniques for timing a lead and a jump that Berry and Javier have helped the whole team understand.

The Cubs have not only been successful a huge share of the time, but often taken bases without drawing a throw. That's especially valuable, and a testament to what Berry and Javier have done for them. It might not seem like it matters by what margin a player is safe, but easy steals come with lower risks of injuries and leave a wider margin for error. They also require a smaller share of a player's energy, because one can let up a bit going into the bag. Racking up easy steals means frequent advancement without the tradeoffs that deter teams from seeking as many of those advancements as they could. The Cubs are the best in baseball at finding easy steals.

Both offensively and defensively, Berry has been a tremendous asset for the Cubs this season. They're a talented team with some depth, but things like great defensive positioning and lots of baserunning value explain their current position better than that sheer talent does. They're more than the sum of their parts, so far, thanks in no small part to the contributions of their new coaches.

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