With the Hardest Run-Ride Fastball on Record, Daniel Palencia Has Leveled Up

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

Since his blowup in Miami 10 days ago, Daniel Palencia has locked things down at the back ends of games. He collected his fourth save Wednesday night, and with each chance to secure a save, he looks a bit more confident—a bit more secure. Palencia seemed a bit too tightly wound for high-leverage work at times over his first two seasons, but he's settling into a role that typically defies settling. Palencia still cuts loose with his roaring exuberance once he records the final out, but until then, he seems to have figured out how to slow things down and keep his heart rate under control. The result has been better control, and with better control, Palencia could emerge as an irrefutable relief ace.

That's because his fastball shape, which is becoming more consistent this season, is as rare as his velocity. Now that he's learning to pump it into the zone, he's blossoming into a unicorn. In the Statcast era, no pitcher has had quite the combination of movement and velocity Palencia is demonstrating, and it seems likely that no one's thrown quite this type of fastball, ever.

Palencia's four-seamer is averaging 15.9 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) and 12.6 inches of arm-side run this year. With a slightly lower arm slot, he's found more of that horizontal movement, without giving up any significant amount of ride. Vertically speaking, it's a pretty flat fastball, but the run on the pitch is much greater than most fastballs, especially those that manage to maintain average vertical movement. Equally importantly, though, of course, is the fact that he throws the pitch nearly 100 miles per hour, with above-average extension, to boot. A triple-digit heater with that kind of run overpowers hitters. It's almost impossible to catch up to, let alone to hit while working uphill at all.

The Cubs like fastballs that can do that. Justin Steele, Porter Hodge and Cade Horton all throw cut-ride fastballs that work in on the hands of opposite-handed batters and away from same-handed ones, with much more lateral than vertical movement. Palencia's is just the mirror image of theirs. It runs in on same-handed batters and away from opposite-handed ones, but unlike most hard pitches with plus run in that direction (the lion's share of which are sinkers), it rides like a four-seamer. That's why Palencia can induce similarly flattened, late swings on his heater to the ones Hodge, Horton, Steele and Brad Keller have drawn.

Living on either end of this graph is better than being in the middle. Caleb Thielbar's fastball has elite vertical movement, but little horizontal wiggle. Hitters can get around on his 92-mph heat, but are usually underneath it. Palencia, Keller, Hodge, Steele and Horton force hitters to swing late and flat, thanks to that great horizontal movement. It's when a four-seamer moves more predictably that hitters tend to square it up best.

The only pitcher whose fastball has held a shape similar to Palencia's current one at a velocity north of 97 miles per hour is the Reds' Hunter Greene, and even he rarely gets so much horizontal movement on the offering. In effect, Palencia throws a fastball no one else in the majors has, because he can get up to 102 mph and still has such lively movement.

Palencia's slider is the pitch that will consistently miss more bats for Palencia, and because hitters have to respect his velocity so much, they also don't hit the ball hard against it. His slider is the out pitch in his arsenal, in the long term.

Nonetheless, after making that change to his slot and getting himself a hair more under control on the mound, Palencia's fastball has gone to a new level. It's a monster of a pitch, and armed with three offerings that work, he's become something better than the highest-upside pitcher in the Chicago bullpen: the best one.

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