Chicago Cubs Stock Watch: Buy or Sell?

[Paul Niemiec]

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

As we speed into summer at Wrigley Field, there’s a definite buzz around the 2025 Chicago Cubs. Despite the perennial bullpen woes and the loss of Justin Steele, the Cubs still sit atop the NL Central. The Cubs had a similar record after April in 2024, but something feels different about this team. Maybe it's Kyle Tucker, or the fact that they were already swimming upstream by the middle of May last year and now seem to be hitting their stride. Maybe the team is just really pumped about the opening of Stolen Saddle on Clark St. (They, uh, have that vibe, collectively, don't they?)

Whatever the reason, the vibes are good on the North Side. The Cubs currently stand second in the majors in runs per game; third in home runs; third in team slugging, and fourth in walks. If this offensive production is for real, the Cubs should be talked about as a legitimate contender that has what it takes to outhit any team on any day. On the pitching side, there is work to be done. Jed Hoyer and his staff know that, so we will see what kind of work they do. With that being said, let's dive into the legitimacy of some great (and less-than-great) starts to the season.

Carson Kelly
Did you really think we would start anywhere else? Carson Kelly has been the best offensive catcher in baseball so far this season. Did anyone have that on their bingo card? A former top prospect for St. Louis, Kelly was a key piece in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals. Kelly showed flashes of offensive potential with Arizona, but ultimately became expendable after they acquired Gabriel Moreno in 2023.

He bounced between the Tigers and Rangers over the next two seasons and put up a .687 OPS with 9 home runs over 313 plate appearances. When he signed with the Cubs, he certainly was not expected to do more than provide competent defense as a complementary backstop. Kelly grew up a Cubs fan; maybe his dream was always to be a star for the Cubs—and only the Cubs. Maybe this performance was always in him, but he was waiting for a team worthy enough. The truth is, Kelly does not need to have a four-digit OPS for this signing to be a major win. His production will inevitably drop, but if he can be a slightly above-average offensive catcher for the year, the Cubs will find themselves with the best catching situation they have had since Willson Contreras and Victor Caratini were at their best.

The Call: Sell Kelly as the best catcher in baseball, but Buy him as a productive roster piece. 

Pete Crow-Armstrong
If I was told, back in August of 2021, that exactly one player acquired in the sell-off of all sell-offs would be producing for the Cubs, I would be the first to show up at Hoyer's house with a pitchfork. Turns out, one player turning into the best center fielder in baseball is more than enough to make up for the Caleb Kilians, the Nick Madrigals, and the Alexander Canarios. [Ed. note: While the names listed here can fairly be called failures, we'll withhold torches and pitchforks alike for a bit, not only because of Crow-Armstrong, but until we see what becomes of Daniel Palencia (acquired for Andrew Chafin that July) and Kevin Alcántara.]

Crow-Armstrong was a first-round pick in 2020, and was immediately seen as a potential Gold Glove-caliber center fielder. He was praised as one of the top hitters in the 2020 high school class, citing a quick left-handed swing that could allow him to hit the ball to all fields. There was always a question regarding his power, though. MLB.com prospect rankings assumed, if all goes right, Crow-Armstrong could hit about 15 home runs per year.

Well, it's the middle of May, and the youngster leads the team in homers, with 11. He is third on the team in OPS, trailing only Tucker and Kelly. He has the fifth-highest WAR in baseball, sitting in the company of Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt, Jr., Corbin Carroll and Fernando Tatis, Jr. He leads the team in stolen bases, and his defense is a whole show unto itself. If he is can cut down on the strikeouts over the rest of the season, there is no reason he should not be picking up down-ballot MVP votes.

In 2023, Cody Bellinger reminded us what it's like to have a capable center fielder roaming Wrigley; something we have not seen since Dexter Fowler. This version of Crow-Armstrong is making us forget about both of those guys.

The Call: Buy

Miguel Amaya
Readers, I am sure you are familiar with this meme:

It was hard not to feel that way toward Miguel Amaya, entering the 2025 season. Amaya signed as an international free agent in 2015, and first started appearing on Cubs prospect lists in 2019—as the No. 1 organizational prospect and seventh-best catching prospect in baseball, according to mlb.com. He was viewed as the heir to Contreras, even before the collapse of the previous core. After dealing with Tommy John surgery in the 2021-2022 offseason, he made his MLB debut in 2023. However, he was very streaky during his first two big-league seasons. He would provide fans some hope for a few weeks, and then have fans begging for more Yan Gomes during other stretches.

This season, he is hitting .286 with an .815 OPS. I am unsure what the Cubs did to rejuvenate their catchers, but it is long overdue. Early scouting reports highlighted Amaya’s defensive ability, but stated he could turn into an above-average catcher with some pop. With catching being such a demanding position, it is not uncommon to see prospects need a bit of ramp-up time to fully embrace their potential. In the second half of last season, we saw Amaya get red-hot, and at just 26 years old, this does not seem like the peak of Amaya, this seems like the ascent into the top 10 at the position.

The Call: Buy

Matthew Boyd
Honestly, I hated this signing when it broke. "Here we go again,” I thought, "overpaying a mid-30s pitcher who has shown an inability to stay healthy throughout his entire career." I felt it was a slap in the face to Kyle Hendricks to give Boyd two years while letting the only remaining piece from 2016 walk to the Angels. After undergoing Tommy John in 2023, Boyd was effective in 2024, sporting an ERA under 3.00, but that was across only eight starts. He has not made more than 15 starts in a season since 2019, and for a team who needs starter depth, this was a questionable signing.

So, of course, he has been the Cubs' best pitcher (not named Shota Imanaga), and it looks like a dependable arm in a rotation that can’t get enough of them. Boyd has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start; has not gone fewer than 5 innings; and is doing it against good competition. Out of his eight starts, two were against the Dodgers, two against the Padres, and one each were against the Mets, Diamondbacks and Giants.

There are some reasons to be concerned, though. His FIP is almost a point higher than his ERA, and his batting average against is the highest it's been in since 2020. He is striking out a batter an inning, and not walking too many, but this seems to be more of a hot stretch than a 34-year-old, oft-injured journeyman turning into a front-line pitcher. He may continue to give quality innings, but this start looks like fool’s gold. 

The Call: Sell

Ryan Pressly
Brutal. The Cubs seemed to take an approach often used by the White Sox when they made the deal for Pressly: acquiring a veteran who is well past their prime. They did it twice for 2025, by also bringing in Justin Turner, who is also off to a miserable start. At least Turner finished 2024 on a hot streak, inspiring some confidence in the 40-year-old. Pressly was anointed the closer, but he has not closed since 2023. The two-time All-Star had seen his ERA rise and his strikeouts drop over his final three seasons in Houston, and started to lose high-leverage opportunities to Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu.

Pressly would have been a nice complementary piece to a bigger move, like a Jeff Hoffman or Tanner Scott signing, but the “big bullpen acquisition” never should have been a 37-year-old on the decline. Pressly currently has an ERA sniffing 7.00. He has more walks than strikeouts; a WHIP nearing 2.00; and the highest hard-hit percentage in his career (not something that tends to turn around with age). He's been removed from the closer's gig, but replacing him is tough. Porter Hodge is probably the next-best option, but he has struggled in his own opportunities. If you ask me, every day that David Robertson sits on his couch is an opportunity lost for the Cubs (unless he's simply contented himself with retiring, which looks possible). 

The Call: Buy... that Pressly is cooked.

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