Why Pete Crow-Armstrong's Stint in the Leadoff Spot Should End as Soon as Possible

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

 

The nature of baseball is such that discerning anything after three games is virtually impossible. Pete Crow-Armstrong might be giving us an exception. 

Over the winter, I floated the idea of the Chicago Cubs center fielder in the leadoff spot. I was hardly the only one. The justification was a combination of Crow-Armstrong's traditional skill set for the spot (read: he's fast), combined with the fact that Ian Happ's contract only runs through 2026. Thus, while it wasn't necessarily going to be in the cards for 2025, it's not unreasonable to foresee the team giving him some run there should Happ find himself on another roster in the not-too-distant future. 

An oblique injury to Happ is giving us our first look at just that scenario. Unfortunately, given Crow-Armstrong's penchant for swinging wildly, it's largely going about as expected. 

The trio of games in which he's hit out of the top spot has featured 13 plate appearances. Within that, he's recorded two hits (one home run) against six strikeouts. His slash reads .167/.231/.417, with a wRC+ of 80. His Swing% checks in at 60.3, his contact rate is 61.1%, and his whiff rate is 23.8%. Essentially, we're seeing the warts in his game become magnified when transitioning to a role in which on-base percentage becomes paramount. 

Not working in his favor is that Happ himself has evolved into the ideal leadoff hitter for this game. Despite the lowest power output of his career (.113 ISO), his .364 OBP is the highest of his career. The on-base outcomes, despite both modest power and speed, have allowed the larger bats down the lineup to generate runs with the fixture on the bases that Happ has become. 

With Crow-Armstrong, you're not getting that. While the approach has been better, per the eye test alone, he's still been prone to the same bouts of chase that we've seen in the past. It's why his overall swing and contact rates haven't changed that much. There's still a streakiness inherent in his game that makes him ill-suited for the role at present. The Cubs offense works because they're getting 'em on at the top and knocking 'em in from the middle. Crow-Armstrong's erratic approach strips you of that. 

It's not an unfounded decision by Craig Counsell—in theory, at least. Get one of your top hitters this year an extra appearance or two, while simultaneously hoping to catch a little lightning with the speed. It was also, in all likelihood, temporary by design. But in the wake of Happ's injury resulting in a stint on the injured list, the pivot to someone like Nico Hoerner (and his contact-oriented approach) might just be better. Crow-Armstrong simply isn't ready for this yet.

 

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