The (Temporary) Loss of Shota Imanaga Will Hurt, But Cubs Will Benefit from Cade Horton's Arrival

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

The tragedy of Shota Imanaga's injury is that it didn't have to happen—but there was no way for him to know that, until it was too late. On a medium-speed ground ball by Christian Yelich in the sixth inning Sunday, Imanaga broke into a sprint toward first base, hoping to be there in time to complete a double play after Michael Busch fielded and threw to Dansby Swanson at second. The rapid acceleration, always dangerous in this way and especially so for a player who left his last start with cramping in that very leg, led to a strain of Imanaga's hamstring. He still made it to the bag, but Swanson's relay throw didn't reach him in time, and was never going to. Yelich was safe, and the trouble was just beginning.

While the Cubs have yet to confirm that Imanaga will go on the injured list, they've already diagnosed him with a hamstring strain, rather than merely soreness or cramping. His gait was affected, at least in the immediate aftermath of the play. It seems inevitable that he will land on the shelf Monday, leaving the team without the two starters who headed their rotation coming into the season. 

That's the bad news. The good news is twofold. Firstly, this looks likely to be on the more mild side, as these injuries go. I did some analysis of recent hamstring injuries for pitchers after Twins ace Pablo López suffered a similar one early in April. In so doing, I found that injuries to a hurler's push-off leg—as López's was and Imanaga's is—tend to require less time for a return. López was back on the mound 16 days after landing on the shelf, and there's every reason to hope that Imanaga will be back by the end of May.

Second, while Imanaga was limping off the field in Milwaukee Sunday afternoon, the Iowa Cubs' ace was having no such trouble. Cade Horton pitched six sparkling innings in his second start of the weeklong series against the Buffalo Bisons, giving up just one run on two hits and striking out five, against a lone walk. Six starts into his season, Horton has a 1.24 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .129/.241/.204 against him. He's fanning 30.5% of them.

The 2022 first-round pick is primed for a big-league debut, just when the team needs him most. He's yet to crack 80 pitches in any start, so don't expect him to come up and give them tons of length, but it would be a minor upset if he makes his next start with the scripted "Iowa" scrawled across the Cubs logo on his chest. He's made material improvements this year, with the zip back on his four-seamer and a full five-pitch arsenal.

As that plot shows, Horton boasts two clearly above-average pitches, in his sweeper and changeup. His command of the latter is shaky, however, so he's thrown it much less this year. To make up for that, though, he's grown increasingly comfortable with his vertical breaking pitch (the one labeled above as a slider and lumped in with his sweeper under that label below, but which is just as much a curveball), and added a sinker to his mix.

Horton has thrown slightly less hard in his last two starts than his previous ones this spring, but that's corresponded with introducing the sinker into his mix, and he's also tinkering with the changeup. Even down a tick from earlier this year, he's up a tick from where he was last year. He's in bully mode.

Horton would need to have either a piggyback partner or a standard long reliever available in support. If the team calls him up, he's likely to pitch a Ben Brown-like number of innings in most outings at first, because he's been kept on such a short leash in terms of pitch count thus far. Bringing him up still makes a world of sense, though, because he was on the same schedule as Imanaga and because he's such an enticing prospect, so plainly ready for the next challenge.

You can rule out Horton starting on Friday. Only once in his professional career—last April, with Double-A Tennessee—has he started on four days' rest. The Cubs have an off day Thursday, so Friday will be Jameson Taillon's turn, anyway. Horton could start Saturday, in the second of a three-game series at Citi Field against the Mets, but if the Cubs want a softer landing for him, they could prepare him for the majors by having him work on four days' rest for Iowa this Friday. Then, he'd be ready to pitch next Wednesday against the Marlins, at Wrigley Field—and his second start would also come against the Triple A-caliber Marlins lineup, on May 20. Then he'd get the Rockies and Reds at home, on Memorial Day and on Sun., June 1, respectively. That would be an awfully sweet way to start a big-league career.

It's conjecture, for now, and when Imanaga (in all likelihood) lands on the injured list Monday, the team is likely to call up a reliever instead of Horton or any other starter. They don't have to reassign his rotation spot until Saturday. In the interim, plenty of options remain for them. Keegan Thompson, whom the team outrighted off the 40-man roster in March, has shown better command this year with Iowa than in his recent stints at any level and made some small but important gains in pitch quality. He's stretched out and could provide length out of the pen. 

Promoting either Thompson or Horton (or, for that matter, recent minor-league signee and former Cubs setup man Michael Fulmer) would require the team to open a 40-man roster spot, which they might prefer not to do any sooner than is absolutely necessary. If they do so, though, they could turn any of Tom Cosgrove, Drew Pomeranz or Chris Flexen from flotsam to jetsam. Otherwise, Ethan Roberts, Gavin Hollowell, or Cosgrove could return to the majors. Jack Neely, Nate Pearson, Luke Little and Jordan Wicks are all in a strange space, probably still too promising to be cut but too much of a mess to be called up right now.

One way or another, very soon, Horton is coming to the majors. Imanaga's injury opens the door for that to happen immediately. The Cubs can't afford to keep losing key pitchers to injuries, but the depth they amassed this winter is paying off, and they might now be able to benefit from steady, solid development of their top pitching prospect. Although the losses of Steele and (hopefully, for a much shorter time) Imanaga make their success to date feel somewhat fragile, the team is quickly approaching a softer stretch in the schedule—and their early success has given them some margin for error.

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