The Cubs Keep Winning, Amid a Truly Ferocious Schedule That Won't Let Up for Another Week

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It's been better than we thought, but it isn't about to get any easier.

Image courtesy of © Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

 

As of this writing, the Chicago Cubs are 12-9. They sit atop the National League Central, a game in front of the Milwaukee Brewers (10-9) and game-and-a-half ahead of the 9-9 Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals. They've scored 124 runs and sport a +36 run differential. The former leads the league by a wide margin, while the latter trails only the San Diego Padres, by just a run. 

Like I said, better than we expected. 

The March and April schedule was always going to be a gauntlet. Starting in Tokyo against the Los Angeles Dodgers before returning Stateside for tilts with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, and Padres was a tall order. Even the West Sacramento Athletics have looked awfully feisty, except in their games against the Cubs. And yet, Chicago has emerged from this stretch—to say nothing of an 0-2 start coming out of the aforementioned Tokyo series—a shade over .500. 

The offense has had a lot to say about that, but it goes beyond strictly run production. The Cubs are in the league's top six in on-base percentage (.340), ISO (.176), K% (20.2), BB% (10.6), and wRC+ (121). Their stranglehold on the league lead in swipes has shrunk a bit, but their 29 stolen bases are still pacing the field. While there are some individual nuances within the lineup, it's been a multi-faceted attack that goes beyond even the massive early success from the likes of Kyle Tucker and Michael Busch. 

It's a lineup that has propelled them in the face of some woes up on the bump. The Cubs' starting staff sports a 3.64 ERA that ranks ninth, but their bullpen ERA (4.92) sits 27th. The latter performance has resulted in just five saves, and a couple of blown ones, which is why it's been so essential that the offense has propped them up in the way that it has. It's harder to lose leads with a shaky relief corps when you've built up a healthy gap. 

The most important component of the start, though, is the quality of the opposition. While the A's are far less than a juggernaut, the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, and Rangers are formidable. All Cubs opponents are, in aggregate, 52-22 against teams other than the Cubs. The Padres, in particular, have only a single loss on the books vs. non-Cubs teams. 

Coming into this stretch, many would have been happy if the team had escaped as even a .500 club. That mindset really carries through the month of April, because they still have another round of games against the Snakes, the Dodgers, and the Philadelphia Phillies. Given where we already are, it isn't unreasonable to think that the Cubs could muster a .500 stretch through the end of April, at a minimum. Such an outcome would carry them to a 17-14 record to finish the month and, as such, would likely land above where we thought they'd be. 

While .500 should be a reasonable benchmark over the next 10 games, there's reason to think they can exceed even that. While projected to be quite a bit better, both the Diamondbacks and Phillies feature pitching staffs that have underachieved. They rank 20th and 21st, respectively, in ERA as a staff, with the former's rotation struggling and the latter facing some inconsistencies in their bullpen. 

Even with some new arms in the bullpen mix, there's more uncertainty for the Cubs' staff than that wrought by an uneven performance through 22 games. Justin Steele is gone from the rotation. The bullpen has been woeful. The burden will still need to be carried by the offense throughout this stretch. While they'll play host against the trio of contenders, each of the Diamondbacks (115) and Dodgers (110) sit in the top six in wRC+ on the road. 

If there's a narrative or a perception to be gleaned from the team's performance through the halfway point of April, it's that the Cubs can hang. Every team is going to experience some unevenness during April, as we watch factors related to health and weather manifest in ways they maybe wouldn't at other points during the year. That the Cubs are able to stave off those factors to a similar extent as their contending counterparts says a lot about this team. And as long as the team remains in contention, the expectation should be that additions will present themselves to allow them to continue to hang as the season progresses.

 

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