The Cubs May Be (Could Be?) Fine Without Justin Steele

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Losing your de facto ace probably isn't ideal. But what if the Chicago Cubs are... fine, without theirs?

Image courtesy of © Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

The following are objective statements: 

• Justin Steele is one of the Cubs' players most crucial to their success in 2025. 
• The Cubs can find success in 2025 without Justin Steele. 

Isn't it neat that two things can both be true?

The news that Steele will miss the remainder of the 2025 season (and possibly beyond) isn't something that anyone is going to say is a good thing for the Chicago Cubs. In fact, it's quite bad. Losing one of their top two arms from the rotation is a blow, especially with a bit of volatility further down the depth chart. It's going to lead to a brief scramble in the short term, with some potential impact in the longer term as they scour the trade market for a replacement (assuming continued contention as the year wears on). 

At the same time, it's not an injury that entirely unravels what the Cubs were trying to accomplish this season. In fact, Matt Trueblood's initial writeup of the news indicated that it's something the organization was likely prepared for, given recent concerns over his long-term durability. They might not have pursued a top-flight starter to the extent we expected at the winter's outset, but they at least have some depth assembled.

When you juxtapose that preparedness with what had been a fairly underwhelming start to the campaign for Steele, you're left with plenty of reason to believe that the Cubs can stave off the bulk of the negative impact wrought by such an injury.

Even in the absence of Steele, the Cubs have a durable, competitive rotation with a relatively traditional structure. Their actual ace, Shota Imanaga, remains healthy and effective. He's provided more stability both in health and start-to-start length, with home run issues serving as the only area where he comes up short against his top-of-the-rotation counterparts. The Cubs don't have one of the few truly elite "aces" in the sport, but their actual No. 1 is in good shape to continue leading the charge. 

Beyond Imanaga, there's still plenty of stability here. The upside play for Matthew Boyd has paid off thus far, courtesy of the evolution of his arsenal. There's more upside to be had in the form of Ben Brown, too. If he can build off a six-inning, scoreless start against the Dodgers, then you're looking at No. 2 or 3 starter upside, which allows Jameson Taillon to settle nicely into a No. 3 or 4 spot. There'll be some clunkiness here, but that's inherent in virtually any rotation. For now, 80 percent of the expected rotation remains intact and (with the exception of Taillon's poor batted-ball luck) is faring well.

When you get down beyond the four remaining starters, it's not as if the panic button is at the ready. There's not a lot of swing-and-miss, but anyone stepping in for Steele for any length of time has the support of an upper-tier defense. The Cubs' collective Fielding Run Value (4) is the second-best mark in the league, with the outfield alone accounting for a 2 FRV. 

As such, Colin Rea is perfectly acceptable every five days in the short term. He's not going to strike many batters out, but as long as he can avoid hard contact, his flyball rate will be served well by the exceptional defensive group the Cubs boast in the outfield. Javier Assad could be set to begin a rehab assignment soon. We know he brings a similar skill set. The Cubs could also move to Jordan Wicks or (later on) Brandon Birdsell. The latter three are all health-dependent, but none of the options would have to be perfect in order to be effective, given the team's defensive structure.

This also opens the door for Cade Horton to make an appearance at Wrigley Field this summer. He was, after all, supposed to be here already, if health issues in 2024 didn't push that back. So far, he's thrown 7 1/3 innings across two starts that have included an even dozen strikeouts. The stuff is undeniably there. His durability will have to be built up and command reined in before it becomes reality, but it's not as if you're going to throw any of the other four above a healthy, stretched-out Horton. 

None of this is to say that the Cubs shouldn't pursue outside options should they become available. A chance to be aggressive at some point exists. Nor are we suggesting that these are benefits to being sans Justin Steele for the balance of 2025. But there are silver linings here. There's volume. There's opportunity. Many teams would be pressed into making a dramatic decision in the short term. The Cubs, however, can push that off for a time. In the interim, we could get a decent look at the longer-term picture in the rotation—all while the options have the comfort of an elite defense behind them. 

It'll be fine. (You know, hopefully.)

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[ryanrc]

Will be. 

Wr cling too closely to one person in a team sport. 

Even the Dodgers survive without Ohtani.