NEWS: Justin Steele to Undergo Elbow Surgery, Miss Rest of Season

Like Death, Tommy John surgery (and its cousin, the internal brace procedure that performs the same reconstruction but permits slightly faster healing) can be put off, but once you're on its cosmic to-do list, your box will eventually be checked. So it went for Justin Steele, who weathered an elbow flareup in the summer of 2023 and the fall of last year but couldn't quite escape the maw of the beast a third time this spring. Whether it will be possible to perform the slightly preferable version of the operation isn't yet clear, but that will affect only his availability for early next year.

Earlier this weekend, the news broke that Steele was seeking a second opinion, which is rarely a good sign. That opinion concurred with the first, as it usually does. He's pitched with damage in the elbow ever since the forearm strain that shelved him in June 2023, but it worsened over time. The best efforts of both team and player were probably doomed all along; the ulnar collateral ligament can't heal while you're still pitching.

The Cubs knew that Steele's elbow was a ticking time bomb, even more than most pitchers' are. It's why they worked so hard to amass extra pitching depth this winter, and why they were bitterly disappointed when a trade for now-Phillies lefty Jesús Luzardo fell through due to the Marlins balking at the medical report on outfield prospect Owen Caissie. It's why the team signed Colin Rea, whom they knew might not make the Opening Day rotation but would be needed somewhere along the way, and why they were in touch with veterans Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson earlier this spring. They've been quietly managing Steele over the last eight months, if not the last 20.

Now, though, they've lost that slow-motion battle with the inevitable, and they're very likely to look outside the organization for rotation reinforcement—not now, perhaps, but before the trade deadline at the end of July. The Marlins could be back in their sights, as Sandy Alcántara has returned from his own elbow surgery with his stuff largely intact. Caissie is off to a strong start at Triple-A Iowa, but unlike Luzardo, Alcántara is too rich a prize to even hope to pry loose with Caissie alone. He could be part of a package, after another month or so of proving himself healthy, and the Marlins have proved themselves willing to deal early in the season during their current rebuild. but the odds are that such a deal would involve a second high-caliber prospect, as well.

While they wait for the rest of the market (Dylan Cease? Pablo López? Others?) to develop, the Cubs will lean on the balance of their veteran rotation, and a bit of increased pressure accrues on rehabbing young arm Javier Assad. Cade Horton, who was bound to step up in a situation like this at some stage, could get his call sooner than first hoped. The team did its best to prepare for this, but just as you can't dodge a thousand anvils, you can't truly prepare for when it lands on your toe—or your best arm.