Justin Steele Lands on the IL with Elbow Trouble Again, Leaving Cubs in Rotation Danger

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Cubs' frontline lefty has now been shelved with one arm problem or another in three consecutive seasons. This is likely to be his longest absence of the three, and it's a major problem for the surging North Siders.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

 

The Cubs placed lefthander Justin Steele on the 15-day injured list Wednesday, with elbow tendinitis. It's the second time in seven months that he's landed there with that very ailment, after he missed the first half of September 2024. Steele was also shelved with a forearm strain in June 2023, not to mention the hamstring strains that stole significant stretches of his 2021 and 2024 campaigns or the back trouble that ended his 2022 early.

Steele is a tenacious competitor, and so far, the arm-related injuries have been the ones that kept him out the shortest time. However, durability has been the biggest question mark about his value since before he even debuted, and has remained so throughout his career. As he's sidelined for the second time in such a short window with tendinitis, it feels unlikely that he'll be back as soon this time as he was last year.

Tendinitis can vary widely and idiosyncratically in severity, and the median time missed with this injury over the last nine big-league seasons is just 17 days. However, that number is artificially lowered by the fact that some players (Brad Hand in 2022; Julian Merryweahter in 2020) were hurt so late in the season that there wasn't much time left to miss. This diagnosis led to so much trouble for Tyler Glasnow and Rob Zastryzny last summer that it ended each of their seasons.

There's also some evidence that Steele has been dealing with this all spring, and that the Cubs knew about it. Firstly, of course, there's his significantly diminished velocity—including a further loss of heat in his most recent start, despite good results against the Rangers Monday night.

Secondly, though, flash back to Sunday. When Ben Brown had to leave the game after four crummy innings against the Padres, Craig Counsell had a two-run cushion and 15 outs left to get. He didn't turn to Colin Rea, despite the fact that Rea hadn't pitched in the previous five days. On Monday night, by contrast, Rea came in and got the final six outs after Steele's strong seven-inning start. It sure feels as though the team knew Steele wasn't at 100 percent, and that they kept Rea ready in case they needed length behind or in place of Steele even in that game.

It's unsurprising to get this news, then, because of what we've seen from Steele both very recently and throughout his career, and because of the way the team has been behaving. That doesn't make it less emergent a situation, though. Rea figures to step right into Steele's rotation spot, and the team will hope to get Javier Assad back by the end of the month, but at his best, Steele is better than either of those hurlers. If Steele is out for something closer to six weeks than to three, this time, there's always the risk of further attrition in the rotation, and it will be harder to replace Brown if he continues to look unequal to the task of starting games in the majors.

This also takes a huge bite out of whatever hopes the team might have had to move to a six-man rotation as their schedule fills in. Fortunately, they still have ample off days for the balance of April and May, but if Steele isn't back by June, the team will need to find ways to get their starters the rest they need amid a heavy slate.

Cade Horton was always part of the plans for this season, but the team doesn't want to make that call until they have to. That they're already down two key starters in the majors and prospect Brandon Birdsell leaves the team thinner than they'd hoped to be. This is part of why they talked to still-available veterans Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson last month. A trade could patch a hole in their rotation before one even fully opens, but only if the team can stay healthy and in a strong competitive position for the next several weeks. With Steele landing on the shelf already, the odds of that appear to have taken a hit.

 

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