Data Shows a Steady, Major Transformation in Kyle Tucker's Approach

[Matthew Trueblood]

Remarkably, the superstar right fielder has undergone a stepwise evolution into more of a lethal slugger, without losing anything major in the process.

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The new batter stance and contact point data that went up on Baseball Savant one week ago include several pieces of information. We don't yet have access to pitch-by-pitch data on contact point or stride length for individual events, but we do have each player's average:

• Depth in the batter's box (relative to the front edge of home plate)
• Distance from the plate (relative to the inner edge of the dish)
• Distance between front and back foot in their stance
• Angle (in degrees) of openness or closedness in stance
• Contact point, relative to the front edge of home plate
• Contact point relative to the player's center of mass

Each of these tells us something in itself—in a vacuum—but some of them are much more powerful than others. Where even the less obviously valuable data can play up, though, is when we compare players not to each other, but to various versions of themselves. If a hitter changes where they set up in the box based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher, or based on the count, or if they have a very different contact point on balls they hit hard than on those they hit weakly, that can tell us as much as (or more than) how they rank on a league-wide leaderboard in that regard.

Kyle Tucker is a great example. None of his numbers in terms of stance or contact point (or, for that matter, in terms of bat speed) put him at the very top or bottom of a leaderboard. When you break out the partial samples provided by these data over the last 21 months, though, you can see different versions of Tucker—including a particularly intriguing new one, just emerging.

In the second half of 2023, Tucker was a hitter who set up very deep in the batter's box, maximizing the amount of time he would have to track the ball before making a swing decision. His stride was short; his swing was focused on balance. He had a deep contact point, over 4 inches behind the front edge of home plate. He stood close to the plate, where he could keep his swing short and still cover the outer third fairly well. Here's what that looks like in Baseball Savant's new graphics package for these data:

And here's what it looks like, looks like: 

In 2024, he made a noticeable change. He only played half the season, but the samples on things this focused on a player's process don't need to be large at all to be telling. Tucker set up slightly less deep in the box, with his feet slightly more spread out. He moved slightly off the plate, the better to get his arms extended on pitches down and in and generate power when pitchers attacked him there. His average contact point moved infinitesimally forward and slightly toward him, which fits neatly with that shift. His stride remained conservative, but he shifted his weight slightly more to put more energy into the ball.

The data tells that story; so does the tape.

Now, the samples this year are so small that we do need to wait just a bit before making any asseverations about what his changing data mean. Nonetheless, the changes are stark and suggestive. Tucker is noticeably farther up in the batter's box this season, and has again shifted a bit farther from the plate. That's to facilitate a much more aggressive set of swing moves, whereby he's striding farther, opening his front hip more, and generating more torque. He's much more likely to pull the ball with authority, especially on the inner half. He's much more focused on handling that pitch, specifically. And he's going and getting it considerably farther out than he was in the past.

What doesn't show up here is that Tucker is also markedly more "hitterish" in the box. He's moving a bit more in his stance, and watch the way he paws at the ground with his back foot as he prepares to attack the pitch. There's been a shift in mentality here, expressed in his physical movements.

Tucker's average swing speed is up to 72.6 mph this spring, from 71.8 in 2023 and 72.1 in 2024. He's built a swing with more danger in it, but so far, he's not paying a big price in terms of more strikeouts or fewer walks. He's capable of generating hard contact from foul line to foul line, and he's trying to make as much of that hard contact pay off in the form of extra-base hits as possible.

This might just be one of several adjustments he'll make throughout this season, but it's fascinating to see a wildly successful hitter making fairly pointed changes over the last year and a half. Tucker seems to be aiming for a big season of power production as he gears up for free agency, and that doesn't just have to be for selfish reasons. That is likely to be the most valuable version of Tucker, too—and now, we can compare it to the last couple versions in ways that go deeper than BABIP, or even exit velocity.

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