Wide Awake This Time, Cubs Bats Secure the Team's First Win of 2025

[Matthew Trueblood]

The lineup was held in check in the Tokyo Series against the Dodgers, but in their domestic opener, the Cubs made a statement: this team will be dangerous.

Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

There are questions hanging over this Cubs season that can't be answered in just a few games. After a pair of disappointing showings and a week's wait for another game that counted, though, the team had to withstand a rising tide of criticism and pessimism among fans and media members. A single victory won't erase that trend, but they thumped the Diamondbacks 10-6 on Thursday night, to at least get the goose egg out of their win column and start accumulating some cause for confidence.

Miguel Amaya looks every bit as good this spring as he did during his hot stretch last July and August, which is terrific news. Amaya hit two doubles that drove home half the team's runs Thursday, each jumping off his bat at over 100 miles per hour. That comes after he smoked an RBI double during the Tokyo Series, and after he batted .500 (and slugged .808) in his limited Cactus League play. His plate discipline needs to tighten up, but he's shown that skill in the past, and the hard contact he's making already is very encouraging.

Ian Happ was a very suitable engine for the offense from the leadoff spot Thursday, too. He had a double and a home run, each hit at 109 miles per hour. Kyle Tucker had two more narrow misses, if you're a person jonesing for the high of that first home run by the newly acquired star. Tucker's still pulling off the ball a bit when he has leverage in the count, trying to do too much, but it hasn't been hard to see how good a hitter he is, and his one hit did bring home an important early run.

Dansby Swanson saved Michael Busch from an error on a 3-6-3 double play, and ordinarily, you feel good about such plays ending up as a fielder's choice. Swanson, though, stayed on the base as he corraled a throw too far to the third-base side of the baseline, and then threw accurately back to Busch from a leaning kneel. Without that bit of defensive wizardry, it's not clear whether Justin Steele would have survived the fifth inning.

Two Steele starts into the young season, it's far too early to panic, but not too early to note some concerning trends. Steele only induced four swinging strikes in 77 pitches, his fewest in a regular-season start since May 31, 2023. His velocity is down this spring.

Obviously, the value of Steele's unique fastball shape is that it can work even at a lower velocity than most pitchers require. As Cubs fans know well, though, even pitchers who don't rely on speed get into some trouble once they've lost enough of it. Steele threw 92.4 mph and could top 96 when he broke out in 2022. Last year, he sat at 91.8 and barely touched 95. In his early starts this year, he's at a flat 91, and hasn't even hit 94 yet.

There's time for all that to turn around, of course. As I mentioned in the wake of the Tokyo Series, there's a case to be made that Steele shouldn't have pitched in Japan, after his ramp-up was slowed down by an illness earlier in the month. If this loss of velocity is real, though, he'll have to adjust to his new reality. In fact, there's already some evidence that he's doing so.

The less dominant Steele is capable of being with the heater, the more reliant he becomes on his slider, and the more he needs the trio of complementary pitches we saw him work to revive as tertiary options last year. That's the way he's trending to start 2025, too. If he's the multi-talented competitor he's always expected himself to be, Steele can survive at 90 or 91 miles per hour. As the Cubs ponder their rotation for a potential playoff series this fall (let alone in future years), however, they'll have to be cognizant of this.

Arizona is a tough opponent, and the Cubs always seem to have a hard time when they play them at Chase Field. They got the better of them Thursday, though, and came away with some positives to savor—even as a new lurking area of concern came into sharper focus.

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