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With two more cuts from their spring roster Thursday, the Cubs pared the number of healthy pitchers assigned to their big-league club to 14. There are one or two spots to be had, and two or three candidates for it.

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

When the Cubs open the season in earnest against the Diamondbacks in Phoenix next Thursday, they'll start with a rotation of Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, and Colin Rea. It's vaguely possible that Steele will land on the injured list while he ramps up more fully, after an illness earlier in camp and the trip to Tokyo slowed him down, but it's likely to be those five who comprise the starting staff. We know the identities of six of the pitchers who will come in to relieve those hurlers, too. On Thursday, the Cubs optioned Jordan Wicks and Eli Morgan to Triple-A Iowa, further clarifying who is and isn't in contention for the final spot on the active roster.

It was no surprise to see Wicks sent down; it's pretty clear that he'll stay stretched out as a starter in the minors for the time being. Morgan was a bit more of an eyebrow-raiser, but ever since he was acquired, the glaring reality has been that he can be optioned to the minors, whereas veteran hurlers Tyson Miller and Julian Merryweather can't be. Since acquiring Morgan, the team has also brought in Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier, Caleb Thielbar, and Rea, all of whom have to stay on the active roster (barring injury). That made optioning Morgan one possibility, all along.

Obviously, Porter Hodge can be sent to the minors, but just as obviously, he won't be, at least to start the campaign. The only other pitcher with options who is being treated more or less as safe is Nate Pearson—and even he now has to fend off at least one of two contenders to hang onto one of the final two spots in the Chicago pen. 

As good as Pearson's velocity and sheer stuff have been this spring, he's still scattering his release points and struggling with command. It's not wholly implausible that the Cubs could send him to Iowa to continue working on that, but they seem committed to getting as much from his arm as possible before it fails again. Thus, the most likely shape for the final showdown on the pitching staff is a head-to-head battle between Ben Brown and Brad Keller.

Brown, of course, offers the team some length, and a greater sheen of youth and dynamism. This spring, though, it's Keller who has thrown harder. He has a deeper arsenal than Brown (admittedly, it's hard not to). He's shown the ability to compile innings without breaking. He's also the one the team will lose, if they don't add him to the 40-man roster. Brown, though tantalizing as ever this spring, still doesn't seem likely to force his way into their plans just yet.

As Pearson could, in theory, Brown stands to benefit significantly from more time to work on things without the outcome pressure of big-league games that count. In extended spring training and/or Triple A, he could work on getting comfortable with a third pitch—be it the changeup that seems most natural, the slider we might have seen a recent glimpse of, or a cutter. He's never given the latter a try before, but it would seem like a perfect fit to give his arsenal a new dimension. He might also benefit from some time to make sure that he's comfortable with and able to command his existing two-pitch combination, since he seems to have slightly modified his arm slot and the relative shapes of his fastball and curve this spring. 

It's still not quite clear how Brown can help the Cubs, in the first half of this season. He doesn't have the pitch mix to start. He doesn't seem to have the command or the overpowering stuff to dominate in relief, at the moment. He also hasn't demonstrated the durability to do either in anything but very brief parts of seasons. Like Pearson, Daniel Palencia, Jack Neely and Cade Horton, he seems almost certain to play a big role for this team, but he needs to shore up some glaring weaknesses before he can be fully trusted by Craig Counsell—and in the meantime, it seems unlikely that the team will be willing to lose Keller when they could keep both by farming out Brown.

An injury could change all of this, of course. Take Steele out of the rotation, even for one turn, and Brown becomes a more tempting addition to the roster—perhaps in lieu of Pearson, rather than Keller. If any of the team's older relief arms go through a dead-arm phase as the season gets ready to spark into life, an extra spot could open for a week or two. Ultimately, though, Thursday's moves just sharpen the focus on a battle that has been looming for over a fortnight. It's time to either give Keller the gig or give him his walking papers, so Brown might have to prove himself a bit more in the minors before getting another look in the Cubs pen.


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