Keegan Thompson Looks Likely to Be Roster Victim When Cubs Activate Matt Shaw

[Matthew Trueblood]

It will be a bitter pill to swallow for some of the righthander's longtime boosters, but this move was inevitable, and the Cubs made the right decision this spring.

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Matt Shaw made it onto the plane to Tokyo, but he hasn't yet (officially) made it onto the Chicago Cubs' 40-man roster. Presumably, that move will come soon, because as important to the team's future as he is, Shaw hasn't earned a place within the organization sufficiently prominent to have gotten him across the ocean if they didn't plan to actually use him.

When the team does add him to the roster (making him eligible to play in the regular-season games next week that are the central purpose of the trip), it looks as though Keegan Thompson will be the roster casualty. Thompson is out of options, but got beaten out for the final places in the bullpen this spring by minor-league free agent Brad Keller, offseason trade acquisition Eli Morgan, and even young fireballer Daniel Palencia. Not so long ago, there was little to separate Thompson from fellow Southern product Justin Steele. In 2021, both were swingmen for the Cubs, and if anything, Thompson had slightly better numbers. Since then, though, the two hurlers' careers have diverged.

Injuries are one culprit for Thompson's downward trend over the last few years, but not the only one. He always walked too many batters, and the two ways to make up for that are to consistently force weak contact or consistently strike batters out at an above-average rate. Thompson has only very inconsistently, very intermittently done either. Over the last few seasons, even when healthy, he's often ridden the shuttle between Des Moines and Chicago, and if the team had been better and more intentional about amassing pitching depth, he would have been jettisoned from the roster sooner.

This winter, they finally got serious, adding not only Morgan, Keller, and starters Colin Rea and Matthew Boyd, but fellow relievers Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier, and Caleb Thielbar and swingman Cody Poteet. That was after trading for both Nate Pearson and Jack Neely during the summer. With a more robust collection of options, Thompson (who can't be sent to the minors without passing through waivers anymore) was never going to last long in the organization. He probably won't clear waivers, so the Cubs might try to trade him within the next week, but (of course) the return on such a deal would be minimal.

This is healthy. Teams need to turn over their roster with some alacrity, to keep things fresh and ensure that they continuously improve. The Cubs have been guilty of some stagnation over the last several years, and Thompson has been a symbol thereof. He's tantalizing, in a sense, and his strikeout rate did tick up in 2024. His stuff has intrigued many fans. Nonetheless, he's mostly performed poorly, and the fact that they had no superior options for that roster spot over the last two years has been a constant indictment of their proactivity and perspicacity as an organization. Thompson has been the pitcher version of Nick Madrigal, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Patrick Wisdom.

Now, like those three players, he's likely to be gone from the organization, which will signify the completion of a year of hard work by the front office to catch up. It's their own fault that they ever fell so far behind, but it's still good to see them make up as much ground as they have. There's better depth on both the position-player and the pitching sides of the clubhouse, and the fact that Thompson couldn't make the cut is an overdue but positive sign.

Meanwhile, Shaw getting that 40-man spot will obviate further questions about his place on the active roster once the team comes home to start the bulk of the regular season. The Cubs have paid some lip service to the idea that they might continue evaluating him on this trip and option him to Iowa after it, but if they wanted to do that, they should and would have kept him in Arizona this week and saved themselves this 40-man spot for the next fortnight—and, perhaps, until mid- or late April. At this time of year, those roster spots are precious commodities.

Being on the roster doesn't mean Shaw must automatically play every day. Gage Workman might well steal some starts from him at third base, while the team figures out how well Shaw can adapt his unique swing (with all that noise in the lower half and a quick but punchy bat path) to big-league pitching. The team has already crossed a Rubicon with Shaw, though, and the sensible choice now is to keep plunging forward. He'll be on the active roster next week, and unless his introduction to the majors goes mortifyingly badly, he'll stick around for the whole season.

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