The Cubs Should Just Plan to Start Jon Berti and Vidal Bruján During the Tokyo Series

[Matthew Trueblood]

They don't have to commit to playing either much, long-term. For these two games, though, it makes far more sense to role with one of the two veterans than with their potential rookie alternatives.

Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-Imagn Images

Undeniably, Gage Workman has had the best Cactus League showing of any of the Cubs in the mix for second or third base, so far. His tools have been on full display—especially plus power and a suite of defensive skills. Last week, I wrote that the team needs to hold onto him for the time being, and that remains my stance now.

However, it's also important to note that in his 86 tracked pitches seen in games with Statcast systems rigged up to feed us public data, Workman has 19 whiffs. He's missed on seven of the nine offspeed pitches he's swung at, and done most of his damage on fastballs—while even missing those around 30% of the time. The eye test says this is not a sampling problem; he's had lots of swing-and-miss, especially against soft stuff, even in non-Statcast games.

While his spring showing is encouraging, therefore, we should retain some skepticism about his ability to make consistent enough contact to contribute much in a regular-season big-league setting, especially right away—and especially against the best pitching the Dodgers have to offer, led by offspeed specialist Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Workman gives you the chance to run into one, but he could easily go 0-for-8 with six strikeouts once the games count; velocity ticks up for all the pitchers he faces; and those bedeviling slow or spin-centric pitches become more common.

Matt Shaw, by contrast, has phenomenal feel for contact. We've already seen that this spring, including and especially in his two-hit performance Monday against the Guardians. It's much less clear, though, where he's going to get any meaningful power in the near term. Shaw's swing is so geared to reaction and hand-eye coordination that he's unlikely to turn on drive the ball much at all against big-league pitchers right now. Maybe the lingering effects of the minor oblique injury that slowed him at the start of camp partially explain that, but nonetheless, it's real. Shaw doesn't have an extra-base hit this spring, or even an especially strong bid for one.

Meanwhile, Vidal Bruján has had a very well-roundedly impressive spring. He's batting .259/.344/.481, and while he's struck out 10 times in 32 plate appearances, that's much more about approach than having big holes in his swing—and he's balanced out some of those whiffs by walking four times. Bruján is a better defensive second baseman, at this moment, than either Workman or Shaw, and he has a better blend of offensive skills to offer. Unlike either of his teammates, he also has some experience facing pitchers of this caliber, and is more likely to make a good adjustment or two.

Jon Berti, of course, is the safest (if lowest-ceiling) bet in this bunch. He's hit well and shown a good approach this spring, and he can capably man third base. Unlike any of the other three, he has a contract (and a service time accumulation) that makes him impossible to cut, anyway, but the smart thing would be for the team to treat him as a start for this series.

That set of choices wouldn't foreclose any options for the team on the other side of their trip to Japan. When they get back, they'll still have a couple of days to play final Cactus League games and evaluate the readiness of Shaw and Nico Hoerner, and it's a virtual lock that at least one of Workman and Bruján is cut at that point. For now, though, Bruján and Berti give the team the best chance to win. Shaw and Workman, though miles more promising, aren't ready to put up much of a fight against Dodgers pitching in a huge showcase series. 

View full article