Predicting the Chicago Cubs' Daily Lineups After Acquiring Justin Turner

[Andrew Wright]

Signing the hirsute veteran makes all the Cubs' likely combinations of positions and batting order slots a bit more appealing. How often will he play, though—and where will he best bolster the existing lineup?

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

In response to losing out in the Alex Bregman sweepstakes, the Chicago Cubs signed Justin Turner to a one-year deal worth $6 million this week. It's expected that Turner will serve as the backup first baseman to Michael Busch, and may also get some occasional starts as the Cubs DH. With Turner presumably backing up Busch at first, it may turn into a platoon situation in which Busch plays against right-handed pitching and Turner plays against lefties. If that is the case, here is a look at what both of those starting lineups could look like for the Cubs.

VS. RHP

1. Ian Happ - LF
2. Michael Busch - 1B
3. Seiya Suzuki - DH
4. Kyle Tucker - RF
5. Dansby Swanson - SS
6. Nico Hoerner - 2B
7. Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF
8. Matt Shaw - 3B
9. Miguel Amaya - C

The order of the players could be switched around in any variation that manager Craig Counsell thinks will work for his team, but those are the nine players who are expected to be in the lineup most days when facing a right-hander. The lineup against a lefty will look a bit different,

VS. LHP

1. Nico Hoerner - 2B
2. Ian Happ - LF
3. Seiya Suzuki - DH
4. Kyle Tucker - RF
5. Justin Turner - 1B
6. Dansby Swanson - SS
7. Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF
8. Matt Shaw - 3B
9. Carson Kelly - C

Once again, the order of those nine can be switched around and maneuvered any different way you'd like, but the depth of the lineup with it being arranged the way it is looks extremely promising. Turner and Kelly are the two primary players expected to join the lineup against southpaws. Yes, we all want to see Michael Busch get an opportunity to play against left-handers sometimes, but it will be hard to keep Turner's career .275 average against lefties out of the mix.

The most likely outcome for both Busch and Turner to be in the lineup together would be when Tucker or Happ needs a day off. That would see Suzuki going to the outfield, Turner at DH and Busch playing first base. That could happen against either a right-hander or a left-hander. Besides playing first base against a lefty, Turner will be Counsell's go-to pinch hitter late in games. Whether that be for Busch or even PCA, he will see plenty of pinch-hit appearances throughout the season.

He is certainly no longer in his prime, but Turner is still a good baseball player, and he may very well help the 2025 Chicago Cubs get back to the postseason for the first time since 2020.

 

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[Big EZ]

The Cubs lineup is looking solidly better this year, but I think you definitely need Tucker in the two hole followed by Seiya vs. righties or lefties. We need to maximize his number of AB's.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Big EZ said:

The Cubs lineup is looking solidly better this year, but I think you definitely need Tucker in the two hole followed by Seiya vs. righties or lefties. We need to maximize his number of AB's.

Welcome to NSBB!

[Big EZ]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Welcome to NSBB!

Thank you! Really enjoying the content!

[ryanrc]

I must point out that subbing for PCA is usually better than Subbing for Busch against LHPO. I imagine both will occur, but usually better to save PCA as a pinch hitter/runner/fielder, let Busch use his higher projected ops against lefties (about .100 higher than PCA). Also, you have the catchers backwards? But it doesnt matter- catchers usually follow their own starting pitchers rather than worry about ideal bat matchups.

VERSUS LHP: 

1. Jon Berti until Hoerner's Ready - 2B
2. Kyle Tucker - RF
3. Seiya Suzuki - LF
4. Justin Turner - DH
5. Dansby Swanson - SS
6. Ian Happ - CF
7. MICHAEL BUSCH - 1B
8. Matt Shaw - 3B
9. Miguel Amaya - C

VERSUS RHP (Supposing Gage Workman is on the roster and hitting well): 

VS. RHP

1. Ian Happ - LF
2. Kyle Tucker - RF
3. Seiya Suzuki - DH
4. Michael Busch - 1B
5. Dansby Swanson - SS
6. Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF
7. Gage Workman until Hoerner's ready - 2B 
8. Matt Shaw - 3B
9. Carson Kelly - C                            

 

If Shaw can hit .750 OPS or higher, as a second cleanup hitter, this lineup is deadly.

Edited February 22, 2025 by ryanrc

[Andrew Wright]

17 hours ago, ryanrc said:

I must point out that subbing for PCA is usually better than Subbing for Busch against LHPO. I imagine both will occur, but usually better to save PCA as a pinch hitter/runner/fielder, let Busch use his higher projected ops against lefties (about .100 higher than PCA). Also, you have the catchers backwards? But it doesnt matter- catchers usually follow their own starting pitchers rather than worry about ideal bat matchups.

VERSUS LHP: 

1. Jon Berti until Hoerner's Ready - 2B
2. Kyle Tucker - RF
3. Seiya Suzuki - LF
4. Justin Turner - DH
5. Dansby Swanson - SS
6. Ian Happ - CF
7. MICHAEL BUSCH - 1B
8. Matt Shaw - 3B
9. Miguel Amaya - C

VERSUS RHP (Supposing Gage Workman is on the roster and hitting well): 

VS. RHP

1. Ian Happ - LF
2. Kyle Tucker - RF
3. Seiya Suzuki - DH
4. Michael Busch - 1B
5. Dansby Swanson - SS
6. Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF
7. Gage Workman until Hoerner's ready - 2B 
8. Matt Shaw - 3B
9. Carson Kelly - C                            

 

If Shaw can hit .750 OPS or higher, as a second cleanup hitter, this lineup is deadly.

Miguel Amaya has reverse splits, so he is going to play against righties and Carson Kelly kills left-handed pitching so he will play against lefties. PCA needs to play every day to get as much experience and exposure as possible. Jon Berti should never be the leadoff hitter on a team trying to compete for and win a division title.

[ryanrc]

On 2/23/2025 at 11:45 AM, Andrew Wright said:

Miguel Amaya has reverse splits, so he is going to play against righties and Carson Kelly kills left-handed pitching so he will play against lefties. PCA needs to play every day to get as much experience and exposure as possible. Jon Berti should never be the leadoff hitter on a team trying to compete for and win a division title.

Aha, i totally forgot they have reverse splits! Man, thanks. 
As far as Berti leading off, I wsa talking about, like, ten games. I disagree that he cant do that for 10 games- his running ability and solid ops make him a temporary sub at that spot. 

[ryanrc]

remember, Berti actually has outhit Hoerner twice in the past 3 years, really doing solid against lefties.