As the Options Narrow, Stay Cognizant of Breadth of Cubs' Options

[Matthew Trueblood]

It's good to have concrete information, even if it's merely news of interest or discussions, rather than actual moves. With names continuing to come off the board as the offseason winds toward a conclusion, though, the danger is that each bit of concrete news blinds us to the sea of other possibilities teams are entertaining, but we're not hearing about.

Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

There's no time on the calendar when it's easy to consume baseball news in a measured, responsible way. That, alas, is not in the nature of our social media-driven world, and that world, in turn, was shaped by some bad media habits that emerged in the two or three decades before it. This time of year is full of especially deep pitfalls for fans, though, and Cubs Twitter is a perfect place to see that in action lately.

Last weekend, we reported here that the Cubs have had discussions with the Padres about a possible trade for Michael King. That was true. It's true, too, that the team has at least entertained taking on flamethrowing reliever Robert Suarez. It's true that, as has been reported by multiple insiders this week, the Cubs remain interested in Alex Bregman, and that they have also talked to the Padres about Dylan Cease.

Amid those true statements, though, lies the risk of drawing some deeply untrue conclusions. Extrapolating things from one rumor and reading into another can lead you down the wrong path. So can stacking rumors on top of one another. To better understand a complicated situation about which we have profoundly imperfect information, then, it's important that we start figuring out what isn't possible, among the things that have been mentioned—and naming some things that haven't been mentioned, but are distinctly possible, even if improbable.

So, first things first: No, it is not possible that the Cubs will acquire both Cease and Bregman in the days and weeks ahead. That one has gathered some momentum online, thanks to the way both possible moves have bubbled and sloshed toward completion at the same time, but for our edification (and to avoid needless disappointment), let's clarify that situation. The overpowering temptation, when hearing multiple juicy rumors, is to think in terms of 'and', but the reality—and usually, the reason why neither of any two given moves has happened yet—is that the situation is governed by 'or'. 

The most likely scenario is that the Cubs acquire neither Cease nor Bregman, but it's entirely out of the question that they'll acquire both. Cease will make $13.75 million in 2025, and Bregman's absolute floor for a salary is $20 million. The Cubs can't (well, could, but you get the idea; it's not within their budget to) add over $30 million to their payroll from here, and they're not going to trade Nico Hoerner at this last gasp of the offseason just to make room for a player a bit better but four years his senior. The Padres can't eat much of Cease's salary; clearing that money is their primary reason for being willing to deal him. Eliminate that idea from your mind.

Next, I would urge people not to think of Cease and Suarez as a potential package. The most likely way for the Cubs to end up with Suarez is as a low-cost salary dump by San Diego, who signed a catcher (Elías Díaz, for $3.5 million) and thus reduced the likelihood of a three-team deal between themselves, the Cubs and the Twins, but who still need to get money off their books somehow. If the Cubs did get Suarez as part of a package, though, it would almost surely be with King, not with Cease. Suarez is due $10 million in 2025 and has two player options thereafter. That's an easy contract to take on alongside the roughly $8 million King will make this year, but not as easy if taking on Cease's money. This one isn't impossible, like Cease and Bregman are, but consider it extremely unlikely that the Cubs get both Cease and King.

On the other hand, it's worth noting how many things are still possible, beyond the obvious and oft-discussed. If the Cubs don't get Bregman or Cease or King or Suarez, they could still land David Robertson—but, just as importantly, they have other paths to a bullpen upgrade, even if they don't find common ground with Robertson. They had some interest in Jorge Polanco, only to see him re-sign with the Mariners, but they're not out of ways to bolster their infield depth, even beyond Bregman—who became more likely to return to Houston with the elimination of Polanco as an alternative for the Astros. Ha-Seong Kim is also off the market, but when he landed with the Rays, it became fractionally more likely that Tampa would be open to trading Brandon Lowe. Robertson and Lowe, to pick one plausible combination, could fit into the room left in the team's payroll budget.

If that doesn't work out, the Cubs could take a harder look at non-tendered free agent Brendan Rodgers. Enrique Hernández, Yoán Moncada, José Iglesias and, yes, Brandon Drury are all still out there. The Twins have listened on Willi Castro throughout the winter and are still willing to deal him if the price is right; Castro would be a perfect fit for the bench, and arguably a better fit for the overall roster and payroll situation of the team than anyone else available, including Bregman and Cease.

If Robertson were to sign elsewhere, the Cubs could circle back to Kyle Finnegan, where they found the asking price too high as of a couple of weeks ago. They could pivot to Kendall Graveman, Buck Farmer, or Spencer Turnbull. There are still several good options for every need the Cubs really have; some of them are just less sexy than others.

Nor are we done seeing talented players become available. The Dodgers designated Ryan Brasier for assignment to make room on their roster for Kirby Yates. Brasier is old and he's good, rather than great, but he'd clearly improve the Cubs bullpen. By no means will the Dodgers release him; designating him was just a formality. They'll trade him sometime in the next handful of days, and it could well be to the Cubs. If it isn't, that, too, is ok, because the next free-agent deal with a team whose 40-man roster is full. Twenty-four of the 30 teams have at least 40 on their roster, including the Cubs; five teams have a pending deal that will require them to cut or trade someone. Talent not only falls into place on MLB rosters later in the offseason than it used to, but continues to arrive on the market later, too.

Again, I would guess the Cubs acquire none of King, Cease, or Bregman. That doesn't mean that the chances of acquiring any of them are zero—plainly, they are higher than that—and it doesn't mean the Cubs can't complete their roster with a strong final move, or two, or three. The universe of possible moves is wider than the rumor mill can tell us, and that's important to remember. At the same time, it's important to be aware of the boundaries of that universe, so you don't waste time drawing castles in the void beyond it.

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[Statyllus]

Bregman is not likely to return to the Astros because the team no longer needs a third baseman given the reality that they traded for Issac Paredes. 

What they need is a left-handed power hitting corner outfielder. The team leadership has likely come to these dual conclusions already. However, on the off chance the Astros front office and ownership confuses a public relations challenge (fans and local media reaction to the loss of Bregman) with the actual need for a third baseman, the Cubs should be standing ready to assist the Astros.   

The Cubs do need a third baseman because they don’t have an everyday major league third baseman. They do have a minor league middle infielder in Matt Shaw who they are attempting to convert to a major league third baseman while the guy attempts to hit big league pitching for the first time. On a 1 to 10 scale of difficulty- we can all agree that’s at least a 7.  

Coincidentally, the Cubs do have a high level Top 100 prospect corner outfielder who hits with power from the left side, Owen Caissie.  A one for one swap of Paredes and Caissie might seem to favor the Cubs, but bear in mind there are no left handed outfielder options available for the price and control of Caissie. So in the unlikely event, the Astros’ front office decides to address their PR problem by re-signing Bregman; trading Paredes -and his $7MM salary-helps with the Bregman financials while also avoids moving Altuve to LF and Paredes to 2B - a 10 on the Yikes Meter. The Tucker trade - in its final effect - becomes Caissie, Cam Smith and Hayden Wesneski for Tucker.

[SOFNR]

 

7 minutes ago, Statyllus said:

Bregman is not likely to return to the Astros because the team no longer needs a third baseman given the reality that they traded for Issac Paredes. 

What they need is a left-handed power hitting corner outfielder. The team leadership has likely come to these dual conclusions already. However, on the off chance the Astros front office and ownership confuses a public relations challenge (fans and local media reaction to the loss of Bregman) with the actual need for a third baseman, the Cubs should be standing ready to assist the Astros.   

The Cubs do need a third baseman because they don’t have an everyday major league third baseman. They do have a minor league middle infielder in Matt Shaw who they are attempting to convert to a major league third baseman while the guy attempts to hit big league pitching for the first time. On a 1 to 10 scale of difficulty- we can all agree that’s at least a 7.  

Coincidentally, the Cubs do have a high level Top 100 prospect corner outfielder who hits with power from the left side, Owen Caissie.  A one for one swap of Paredes and Caissie might seem to favor the Cubs, but bear in mind there are no left handed outfielder options available for the price and control of Caissie. So in the unlikely event, the Astros’ front office decides to address their PR problem by re-signing Bregman; trading Paredes -and his $7MM salary-helps with the Bregman financials while also avoids moving Altuve to LF and Paredes to 2B - a 10 on the Yikes Meter. The Tucker trade - in its final effect - becomes Caissie, Cam Smith and Hayden Wesneski for Tucker.

The Astros clearly think they can fit Paredes and Bregman into the same infield or they wouldn't still be targeting Bregman. Rumors are Paredes would move to first, which I'm sure he could handle well. Paredes projects to mash in that stadium. They've got no interest in moving him. The Cubs were clearly interested in moving an infielder to open up a opportunity for Shaw all offseason. They aren't going to change course and trade a top 100 prospect to bring back the guy they already traded away.