Did the Kyle Tucker Trade Upgrade the Cubs at One Position, or Two?

[Matthew Trueblood]

When the Cubs decided to trade their prospective right fielder for a much better one, they knew it would mean accepting more risk at another position. As things are panning out, their 2025 fortunes could hinge on whether or not they also got better at third base in the process.

Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

Because of the (needlessly confining) payroll limits placed on the front office by the Ricketts family, the Chicago Cubs knew they would need to trade Cody Bellinger after they acquired Kyle Tucker. In truth, Bellinger would have been a fairly poor fit for the roster after Tucker's arrival, anyway, but because the front office entered the winter determined to make substantial upgrades to the pitching staff and had a smaller budget with which to work than they enjoyed the year before, they were left without much choice but to move Bellinger for pitching depth as part of the maneuver by which they acquired a superstar for the first time in Jed Hoyer's tenure.

To get Tucker, they gave up top draft pick Cam Smith and intriguing hurler Hayden Wesneski, but they also sent the Astros Isaac Paredes, whom they had just acquired in July, ahead of the 2024 MLB trade deadline. Giving up Paredes meant installing Matt Shaw at third base, and ever since the two-step move of trading for Tucker and offloading Bellinger to the Yankees was completed, we've been slowly acclimating to the idea: Shaw is The Plan for this season at the hot corner.

Hoyer did agree to sign Jon Berti for infield depth Wednesday night, and there's always a chance of some other unexpected move, but Berti is very much a bench piece; he's not meant to truly buffet the risk of Shaw not being able to hit the ground running in the majors. While the Cubs got markedly better in right field, then, the key question about this trade might turn out to be: How well will it turn out to facilitate the installation and empowerment of the Cubs' young hitters? In short: Can Shaw outperform Paredes?

At first blush, that seems to be asking a lot—maybe too much. The Steamer projections for Paredes are .244/.346/.439, with 25 home runs. Specifically, that system expects Paredes to be about 17 runs better than an average hitter. It also marks him as a below-average baserunner (giving back two of those runs) and a good-not-great defender (0 runs above or below), but still, the former All-Star is very much in his prime and being 15 runs above average at a position is tough to improve upon.

Shaw's projections aren't bad, by any means. Steamer forecasts .250/.319/.410, with 15 home runs in under 500 plate appearances. For a guy who has never played a day in the majors, that's an ambitious projection. It's only good for about 4 more runs than an average hitter in the same playing time, though, and the system thinks he'll be more or less average both on the bases and in the field.

There are reasons, though, to believe Shaw can be a bit better than this—and, for that matter, to expect Paredes to be a bit worse. He was not the same player for the final four months of 2024 that he had been over the previous two years, and while players are allowed to slump, his unique profile led to extra layers of worry when he ran into trouble. We could easily imagine, I think, Shaw closing the gap between them on offense to about five runs, by making adjustments quickly and claiming more playing time than expected, while Paredes continues a slight regression.

Then, we turn to baserunning and defense. I think it's plausible—maybe even probable—that Shaw returns a lot more value in those areas than a projection system is going to project him to. I'm on the record as a moderate skeptic of Shaw's bat, at least in his rookie season, but he has talked a blue streak about his own dedication to third base this winter, and he looked plenty good there in the high minors last year, playing over 550 innings. With his athleticism, I think he's probably five runs better than Paredes on the dirt, and you could bid me up from there. Shaw was also very aggressive on the bases in 2024, swiping 31 bases in 42 tries. That success rate is discouraging, but I'm a big believer in the two Yankees staffers (Jose Javier and Matt Talarico) the Cubs hired away this winter, who specialize in baserunning and helping players rack up steals. I think Shaw could be five runs better than Paredes on the bases, too, if he's on often enough.

If all this sounds too good to be true, keep in mind: it could be. The tough adjustments the majors will require of Shaw (who is used to using a very high leg kick to generate power and is likely to be forced into something different mechanically against the best pitchers in the world) are very real. Still, on balance, there are good reasons to think Shaw might be 12-15 runs better than an average player this season, and if that's the case, the team probably got better at third in the Tucker trade, in addition to adding one of the game's best right fielders.

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[EStheG]

Need to trade happ.. how he is still on the team is crazy.. dude is below average 

[Brock Beauchamp]

28 minutes ago, EStheG said:

Need to trade happ.. how he is still on the team is crazy.. dude is below average 

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