Horsefeathers: The Chicago Cubs Are Not Finalists for Free-Agent Starter Roki Sasaki

Matthew Trueblood · January 13, 2025

The news trickled out throughout Monday afternoon, and despite some confusion that lingered into the evening, the hammer eventually fell. The Cubs lost out to the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and Toronto Blue Jays for the burgeoning ace righty.

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

All along, we've known that it was a longshot that the Cubs would reel in Roki Sasaki. He's as hotly in demand as any free agent in baseball history, with his price artificially suppressed in a way that amplifies his value to whichever team signs him in a way disproportionate even to his immense talent. The Cubs hung around longer (although only by a few hours) than the Giants, Yankees, Mets, or Rangers, all of whom also found out Monday that they would not be signing Sasaki. It makes no real difference, though. Ultimately, they fell well short of successfully recruiting him.

Now, the team's attention can turn fully to where some of it already had been. There are several remaining ways in which they can upgrade their pitching staff as much as Sasaki would have upgraded it, in the short term, but the costs of those options are all much higher. The only good news is that, to whatever extent they were reserving some of their energy in pursuit of those deals to chase Sasaki, they can now pivot more actively.

That two of the three remaining contenders for Sasaki are in the National League underscores the pressure on the Cubs, here. They already trail the Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, and the team from suburban Atlanta in any credible projection for 2025, and one of those clubs is likely to land Sasaki as a booster to their roster. Then there are the Giants, Diamondbacks, upstart Nationals, and intradivisional threats from the Brewers, Reds, and maybe even Pirates. To separate themselves at all from that thicket and to push themselves into serious contention with the Big Five of the NL, the Cubs have to find those last couple of major improvements.

Breaking them down in depth is tomorrow's work, though. For now, we have to settle in with the idea that another marquee target has eluded the Cubs, and that they remain a serious but flawed contender, with the number of ways they can achieve the needed step up shrinking daily. I've been more circumspect in my projections of how Sasaki would change things for 2025 than just about anyone else, and I stand by that, but it's clear that the organization wanted him badly, and they came up far short. Now, they can pursue players (Jack Flaherty? Tanner Scott? Kirby Yates? Alex Bregman? Ha-Seong Kim? Dylan Cease? Ryan Feltner? Ryan McMahon? Taylor Ward? Kyle Finnegan?) who might actually be better in 2025 than Sasaki, but the stakes of their efforts to acquire any of them have ratcheted up significantly.