2025 ZiPS Projections Paint Chicago Cubs' Path to Being Elite

[Jamie Cameron]

The 2025 ZiPS projections for the Cubs dropped last week. Let’s dive into three takeaways from FanGraphs’s prognostications and discuss the work the Cubs still have to do to cement themselves as NL Central favorites.

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Chicago has had an active offseason thus far. At the midpoint of winter, let’s see where they stand, so we can understand the stakes of their efforts to make more key moves.

ZiPS is in Love With the Cubs Lineup
ZiPS is bullish on the Cubs lineup, valuing the balance of bats and elite defense—resulting in a whopping 32.8 projected WAR just from the positional group, which really doesn’t have discernable weaknesses. The projections have benefited from swapping out Cody Bellinger for Kyle Tucker (duh). There are six different starters projected for an OPS+ of over 100 (Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, and Matt Shaw), with several also carrying great defensive projections. In addition to the splashy Tucker acquisition, the Cubs strength and depth have been augmented by the early portion of the offseason spent upgrading around the margins.

There’s Pitching Work to do, Particularly in the Starting Rotation
The pitching is a different story, particularly the rotation. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele and Matthew Boyd are carrying all the water here. There’s not much to write home about after those three. Having been linked to Luis Castillo, Jesús Lazardo and others this offseason, the Cubs need to finish their offseason work by acquiring a playoff-caliber starter and additional depth. With a strong farm system (the top of which is skewed toward the upper levels of the minors), trading for starting pitching help seems both the most likely route to filling that need, and the most logical. 

The bullpen needs reinforcements, too, with much of its projected value being tied up in risky arms such as Nate Pearson. With a relatively slow-moving relief pitching market this winter, upgrading the floor of the bullpen should be easy to accomplish via free agency.

ZiPS Likes Matt Shaw to Replicate the ‘Michael Busch Effect’ in 2025
After trading away Isaac Paredes to the Astros, one of my questions about the Cubs' projections was how healthy their third-base projection would be. The answer to that is: ZiPS likes Shaw to be a good starter now, much like Busch was in 2024. A 16-home run, 18-steal season with a 100 OPS+, playing slightly below-average defense at third base feels about right, and is an outcome Cubs fans should sign up for, given the opportunity. If Shaw can land somewhere between that projection and his 80th percentile outcome (121 OPS+), he’ll be in the Rookie of the Year discussion in the NL.

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What do you make of the Cubs ZiPS projections? Where would you like to see them focus their remaining offseason energies and resources?

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