Cody Bellinger Trade Rumors: A Breakdown of Yankees Pitching Prospect Will Warren

[Matthew Trueblood]

Though no consequential hot stove news broke Thursday, below the surface, there were indicators that the Cubs were moving toward something big. One new name reached the public sphere, and it's one that has come up in connection with the team before.

Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

It's become clear, over the last two days, that the Cubs' major focus is to complete a trade for Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker. They have sidelined multiple negotiations with free agents for the time being, hoping to get a deal done and have more clarity about their roster before needing to add a new signee to that group and create a space by designating someone for assignment, at what could be an inopportune time. All their energy is going toward big swings in the trade market, and Tucker is the prize. However, they view it as important to trade Cody Bellinger first, since Houston does not value him highly enough to warrant his inclusion in a Tucker deal. Thus, the linchpin of the team's tactical approach to grabbing Tucker is sending Bellinger to one of the other interested teams.

The most likely of those, by far, is the Yankees, where Bellinger could fit at multiple spots and would reduce the Bombers' uncertainty in the lineup, without foreclosing any of the other options they're pursuing. That makes the reports of progress between Chicago and New York Thursday evening important ones, and the inclusion of pitching prospect Will Warren in those discussions is especially compelling.

Warren, 25, has been on the Cubs' radar for a while. He's primarily a sinker-sweeper guy, and his stuff is nasty. He struck out 28% of opposing batters, even in a season in which he posted an ERA just under 6.00 in Triple A and a mark over 10.00 in the majors. Warren doesn't overpower hitters with sheer velocity, but his location of both the sinker and the sweeper is superb, and the movement on the two pitches combined with that command makes for a devastating attack. He also has an average four-seamer, a changeup, and a cutter, making his arsenal deep enough and his swing-and-miss sufficient to slot into the middle of a starting rotation at his best.

As you might expect from someone who works east-and-west the way he does, Warren has a fairly low arm slot. He also has a bit of crossfire to his delivery, with a closed stride that forces his body to sweep around his front leg.

That puts a lot of pressure on his four-seamer, when it comes to getting lefties out. To his credit, after a very rocky start to the season in Triple A, Warren did figure that out, emphasizing the four-seamer more after Jun. 1.

Because his changeup separates from his sinker only in velocity, and not in terms of movement, he needs that four-seamer to set it up to lefties. The sinker does a fine job of putting right-handed hitters into a fork as a partner to his sweeper, but as the season progressed, he even ratcheted up the usage of that four-seamer to righties.

He also virtually scrapped the cutter mid-season. This is adding up to rather a lot of changes. Did they help him pitch better as the year went on?

In short: yes, but it still looks a bit messy. His season breaks down thusly:

• Through 5/31 (AAA): 205 batters faced, 44 1/3 innings, 48 strikeouts, 19 walks, 13 home runs allowed, 8.53 ERA, .918 opponent OPS
• Jun. 1-Jul. 25 (AAA): 220 BF, 51 1/3 IP, 67 SO, 16 BB, 5 HR, 4.03 ERA, .656 opp. OPS
• Jul. 30-Aug. 31 (MLB): 104 BF, 21 2/3 IP, 26 SO, 9 BB, 4 HR, 9.55 ERA, .985 opp. OPS
• Sep. 6-18 (AAA): 61 BF, 14 IP, 21 SO, 4 BB, 1 HR, 4.50 ERA, .662 opp. OPS

After all that, he did make one more forgettable and meaningless appearance in the big leagues to finish the season, but it's not worth further muddying that water. Suffice it to say this: Once Warren tweaked his pitch mix, while he was in the minors, he had a ton of success. However, he's prone to the home run, and hasn't yet solved some of the more complex problems posed by high-level hitters. At least one scouting report also indicated that Warren's sweeper is a pitch uniquely ill-suited to the automated strike zone used for much of the season in Triple A, so he might have been even better than these numbers look once he sorted things out in the minors.

Obviously, Warren is an intriguing arm, with plenty of potential bullpen utility if the starting thing doesn't work out. Predictably, he has significant platoon splits. He would slot somewhere in with Javier Assad, Brandon Birdsell, Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Hayden Wesneski, and Jordan Wicks, the Cubs' gratifyingly deep stable of back-end rotation arms with upside either in the middle of a rotation or the bully portion of a bullpen. Where he fits is a matter of scouting preferences and other considerations, but he'd increase the team's ability to trade from that sector of their roster, which might come in handy, be it in Tucker negotiations with Houston or in pursuit of Dylan Cease from San Diego.

The Cubs hope not to have to eat more than $5 million in the Bellinger trade, to give themselves as much financial flexibility as possible when they turn their attention to other necessary moves. If they succeed in getting the Yankees to take on nearly all the money, Warren would probably be the only piece they get back. That's fine. He has clear flaws, just as the other pitchers in the mix he would join do. However, he'd be a strong return in a trade primarily motivated by the need to free up other options.

View full article