The Cubs Have Control of Pete Crow-Armstrong Through 2030, Based On His Service-Time Shortfall

[Matthew Trueblood]

It's a small thing, but it's important: the Cubs still have control of their center fielder for up to six more seasons.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Somewhat infamously, in 2015, the Cubs waited until the day they could delay Kris Bryant's free agency by a year before they called him up. It wasn't even close to being the first case of such blatant service-time manipulation. It wasn't against the rules. It was, however, a little icky. Since Bryant went on to win the Rookie of the Year Award that season, under new rules added to the collective bargaining agreement three years ago, he would now be given a full season of service time, anyway. At the time, though, Bryant was left without a recourse, other than the grievance he and Scott Boras filed—and, predictably, years later, officially lost.

It doesn't seem as though the team did that with Pete Crow-Armstrong. They did wait until almost the middle of September 2023 to call him up for the first time, but that appears to have been about bringing him along at the appropriate pace and about the competitive circumstances they faced in the moment. Besides, at that moment, it was hard to guess whether he'd be positioned to start the following season with the Cubs. If he did, though, he would certainly get over a year of service time in 2024.

He didn't. After the Cubs re-signed Cody Bellinger in February, Crow-Armstrong began the season with Triple-A Iowa. He got the call when Bellinger was hurt colliding with the wall in April, but didn't play very well, and was sent back down three weeks later when the team got healthy again.

More injuries made way for him again by mid-June, but Crow-Armstrong ended this season with 170 total days of MLB service time, counting 2023 and 2024. A full season of service time is 172 days. In other words, though he's only two years from reaching salary arbitration, Crow-Armstrong is still six years from free agency, just as if he were called up for the first time this April. It's a big deal for the Cubs, because that extra year of team control increases his trade value, their leverage in potential extension negotiations—and, if he pans out the way they hope he started to in the second half of 2024, one extra season of his services if no extension comes to fruition. Crow-Armstrong will turn 23 next March. The season in which these two days of service make a crucial difference, 2030, will be his age-28 campaign. There's every chance that that's still part of his peak; he's likely to remain an elite defensive center fielder at least through that campaign.

Crow-Armstrong is penciled in as the team's starting center fielder for 2025, and he's a key X-factor in any projection of their success next year. His plate discipline is far, far behind his tools. It's still far from assured that he'll blossom into the star the team hopes he can be, but we've seen some glimpses of his upside. That the Cubs have (theoretical) control of his services for 2030 is welcome news, though Crow-Armstrong has every right to feel slightly put out about it.

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