Trade With Astros Could Be Path to Elusive Lineup Upgrade for Chicago Cubs

[Matthew Trueblood]

With Cody Bellinger back in the fold, most positions on the Chicago lineup card are spoken-for, and the team still needs an upgrade. That can change, though, if Jed Hoyer has the courage.

Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-Imagn Images

To best understand the conundrum the 2025 Cubs face, let's sketch their projected Opening Day lineup. With the team's incumbent right fielder locked back in after exercising his player option for next year, there aren't any low-friction ways to shake up this group, but this group is going to look awfully familiar.

1. Ian Happ - LF
2. Seiya Suzuki - DH
3. Cody Bellinger - RF
4. Isaac Paredes - 3B
5. Michael Busch - 1B
6. Dansby Swanson - SS
7. Miguel Amaya - C
8. Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF
9. Nico Hoerner - 2B

You can shuffle those players based on personal preferences with regard to lineup construction, or based on the handedness of the opposing starter and the hurler the Cubs are sending to the mound on a given day, but some version of the above took the field almost every day for the final six weeks of the 2024 season. They were better than they had been in May and June, when depleted by injuries, and they even flashed championship-caliber explosiveness—but it was clear, all along, that they were incomplete and insufficient. It was just a matter of by what degree.

The top two players in this lineup are signed to deals that include no-trade clauses, and besides, they've been the two most consistently strong hitters on this team for the last two years. Trading either would be an odd way of going about the project of improving the offense. The sixth guy also has a no-trade provision, and is on a longer, more onerous contract. In between are three guys who are tough to move, for three different reasons, and below Swanson are three young players whom the team hopes will mature into invaluable pieces for them. So, who's the most removable of a set of settled starters?

I would argue that the first out should be the last one in; that's Paredes. It's not a seniority thing or a matter of Paredes not playing well when he first arrived after the July trade that brought him to the team from Tampa Bay. It's just that he offers the best blend of movability and replaceability—even though getting that right will require threading a needle.

Enough throat-clearing. I came here to propose a trade. Here it is. Let's dig into the concept:

ASTROS GET: 3B ISAAC PAREDES
CUBS GET: OF PEDRO LEÓN, RHP MIGUEL ULLOLA

If you just said, "Who?!", you're probably not alone, but hear me out. In this deal, Chicago would send Paredes—the paragon of pull power, a man made for the Crawford Boxes if ever there was one—to the Astros, who specialize in training the one thing missing from Paredes's offensive profile: bat speed. Houston issued a qualifying offer to Alex Bregman Monday, but the chances of him accepting it are right in line with the chances that he'll receive a standing ovation at Dodger Stadium the next time his new team comes to town. Bregman could still re-sign with Houston on a lucrative long-term deal, and longtime teammate José Altuve has made a public plea that they do so. However, Houston GM Dana Brown has already said the team "might need to get creative" with payroll this year, and that's usually a euphemism for either cutting or working hard to get better without an increase. Certainly, it seems not to fit with a nine-figure expenditure on a player in his early 30s.

Paredes, by contrast, would be a great example of creativity. Given his remaining team control, his relatively modest projected salary, and the fit of his core skill set to the Astros' home park, he could go right back to making All-Star teams upon arriving there, and the team could get right back to reaching the ALCS every year. Let's talk about why the move would make sense for the Cubs.

First and foremost, in this scenario, the Cubs would be the ones to sign Bregman. He's perfect for them. His on-base skills and remaining power are exactly what the top end of their batting order needs. Although it would be just one substitution, this batting order makes so much more sense and induces so much less anxiety that it's well worth spending $25-30 million a year on Bregman, on its own.

1. Happ - LF
2. Bregman - 3B
3. Bellinger - RF
4. Suzuki - DH
5. Busch - 1B
6. Swanson - SS
7. Amaya - C
8. Crow-Armstrong - CF
9. Hoerner - 2B

In the medium-term future, I think Bregman could also slide over and play second base, accommodating the emergence of 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith at the hot corner, if it comes to that. In the short term, though, it's just an expensive but important upgrade at third base. Bregman is a handful of runs better as a batter than Paredes, even if you assume Paredes bounces back from his deep 2024 slump. He's also a better fielder, despite being older, and he's no worse on the bases than the plodding Paredes.

The two players the Cubs would directly receive for Paredes also make the team better at the margins. León, whom the Dodgers signed three and a half years ago out of Cuba, is almost a perfect analog for Alexander Canario, but whereas Canario has had repeated injury issues and is out of options, León has consistently performed well in the top levels of the minors over the last two seasons and stayed very healthy—and he can still be optioned to the minors for the next two seasons.

In practice, though, I think León would spend much of 2025 on the big-league roster. He'll turn 27 next May, and although his cup of coffee with Houston this year was a bitter one, he has big upside. How big? Well, of the players who had at least 25 tracked swings in the majors this year, Giancarlo Stanton had by far the highest percentage of his register at over 78 MPH. Second on the list, out of 532 qualifiers, was León.

There is, as you would guess, a lot of swing-and-miss in León's game, but he accepts his walks at least as well as Canario does, and he's a better outfielder, too. Acquiring him would necessitate trading Canario, but that should have been on the Cubs' to-do list this winter, anyway. Canario belongs on a team with lower aspirations and a stark need for help in the outfield. León would be a much better fit for the Cubs, given their roster and their competitive timeline.

Ullola, meanwhile, is very much a lottery ticket, and is probably available mostly because he has to be added to the 40-man roster this month in order not to be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. He's a live-armed righty who has started throughout his ascent of the minor-league ladder, but who profiles as a reliever. His fastball has high-rise action and a very flat vertical approach angle (VAA), plus a bit of relative cut. He throws a sharp yet deep curveball and a hard slider, plus a changeup with depth. Walks will limit his upside slightly, but getting León and Ullola would neatly unwind the Christopher Morel and Hunter Bigge-for-Paredes trade, with some extra flexibility gained in the bargain.

Trades that only make sense in conjunction with a huge free-agent expenditure are tough to project. This one is unlikely to come to fruition, for that very reason. However, if the Cubs can get Bregman engaged on a long-term deal, they should call the Astros with this framework right away. Swapping out Paredes for Bregman and upgrading from Canario and, say, Trey Wingenter to León and Ullola would be an excellent double-move by Hoyer and company. At the very least, this is the type of creativity the Cubs need to consider throughout this winter, as they try to get better from a position of relative roster stiffness.

View full article