Breaking Down The MLB Trade Rumors Candidates & How They Fit On The Chicago Cubs

[RandallPnkFloyd]

If there’s one thing I detest as a writer, it’s constructing trade proposals. In large part, trade proposals are almost always flawed, if not outright bad. Free agency is easy, by comparison. “This guy is not at all attached to a team, so we can absolutely speculate where he might end up.” Trade talks, however, are a different animal entirely.

Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

We have merely the smallest sense of who could actually be moved. And we certainly don’t know the cost to acquire them. So, I steer clear of them entirely to maintain my brand as the rare quiet, introverted, Smart Baseball Person. 

I don’t mind so much when other people do it, though. Especially when it’s MLB Trade Rumors; their lists tend to be rooted in reality, whether you’re talking about a ranking or a salary projection. So when they dropped their Top 35 Trade Candidates earlier this week, my ears perked up. 

Last year’s iteration of the list focused on 25 players, with six of the top eight and seven overall finding new homes before the winter ran out. The justification for expansion was the volume of players that could be available via rebuilding teams or those that have already declared a desire to cut payroll. You’re looking at the Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, and St. Louis Cardinals among such teams, with clubs like Tampa Bay or Cleveland always looking to be a little busy to save a few bucks. It’s worth noting that Jorge Soler’s name was on the list and was already moved this week. One down!

It's a very interesting exercise to look at the list through Chicago Cubs tinted glasses. Up and down the list, you see names that would look quite sharp in the royal blue pinstripes for one reason or another in 2025. Garrett Crochet, Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley, Bo Bichette. However, there are a couple of issues with parsing through the list while maintaining that specific perspective. 

An even dozen players on the list are either from teams in the National League Central (the bulk of which currently spend their spring & summers in St. Louis) or the White Sox. While I don’t think we should entirely dismiss the notion of the Cubs doing business within their division or city, it’s an objective truth that teams don’t love doing that. So we might as well knock all those names out of the running ahead of time. Another is Cody Bellinger, who remains on the Cubs roster until he isn’t. 

That leaves 21 other names for the organization to pursue off this list. The list also features a few relievers that are set to be a bit pricey. Pete Fairbanks and Ryan Pressly fall on somewhat different ends of the reliever salary spectrum. Still, a reliever with a hefty salary either way isn’t really in the Cubs’ nature (a concept we can debate another time). For the same reason, we can probably knock Jordan Montgomery off the team’s wish list following his miserable 2024. As much as Arizona leadership is trying to disparage him publicly enough not to exercise his player option, he’s not walking away from $22.5 million.

Still, on the side of the arms, both Jesús Luzardo & Chris Paddack are tantalizing. These are both names that have, historically, been mentioned as potential Cub targets. Both have extensive injury histories, however. Luzardo was a likely trade candidate last year but was limited to just 12 starts. Paddack made 17 in his full-time return from a second Tommy John surgery but continued to experience arm trouble throughout the season. I don’t think that their respective histories make either one less intriguing.

But given that some health questions permeate the Cubs’ prospective pitching staff, I’m not sure they’d be inclined to make an upside play when they are probably seeking a little more certainty on the mound. Cross another five names off the list. Only 16 to go. And they’re all position players. Let’s pare it down a bit more.

Let’s first knock off Luis Arráez. The Cubs need more power, in addition to the fact that he’s limited positionally. That one doesn’t work. Additionally, I’m not sure the team is willing to pursue an outfield bat unless they can boost the offensive output, which would rule out Mike Yastrzemski, Wilyer Abreu, Leody Taveras, Chas McCormick, Cedric Mullins, and probably Lane Thomas. Not that those are poor options, necessarily. They’re strong supplementary bats in your lineup. However, the Cubs have enough supplementary offensive profiles throughout their lineup. We’re into the single digits now, with only nine players remaining. 

Those nine read as such: catcher Christian Vázquez, first basemen Yandy Díaz, Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe, and Ryan Mountcastle, third basemen Brett Baty & Eugenio Suárez, shortstop Bo Bichette, and OF/DH Brent Rooker. Not in order, of course, as I’ve already made a right mess of expressing any of this in the order in which MLBTR provides them. But they’re all on there. 

We also don’t know what the Cubs could seek positionally this winter. We know they must inject some life (read: power) into the offense. But what does that look like? A third-base bopper with Isaac Paredes flipped over to the keystone? A corner outfield bat? A first baseman to split time with Michael Busch and spend some time as a DH (if not someone with just a bit more versatility)? 

An addition at third base remains possible, though not as much of a need with Paredes’ arrival. Baty is interesting, given his previous prospect pedigree. Now that he’s officially lost the job to Mark Vientos in Queens, the Mets could try to capitalize on that pedigree. At the same time, should Pete Alonso depart in free agency, perhaps you’re flipping Vientos over to first and giving Baty another run at the hot corner. Baty doesn’t provide the type of pop the Cubs should be seeking, but he’s also the kind of post-hype bat we’ve seen the team have an interest in. 

Interestingly, the Second Half Edition of Eugenio Suárez fits exactly what the Cubs need to add to their lineup. He ISO’d a wild .295 in the second half of the season, and posted a wRC+ of 153. Defensive metrics liked him overall, too, with his FRV & OAA above the average threshold. The power is evident; he’s slugged 30 homers in three of the last four seasons. It’s also an interesting potential move from a logistics standpoint. In acquiring Suárez, you’re essentially moving Paredes over, trading Nico Hoerner, and giving your upper-level prospects some additional time but not blocking them long-term. The combination of his first half and age (33), though, could make the Cubs iffy about pursuit. I’m not sure I hate the idea, though.

The Cubs deciding to go the route of a first base/designated hitter type would be interesting. It’s also dependent on how they feel about Michael Busch. Is he your everyday first baseman? Or are there some platoon considerations? Díaz or Mountcastle could make sense as a short-side guy if you want to give Busch some relief against lefties. However, neither has posted particularly impressive power numbers in recent years. Naylor’s bat is likely the biggest upside of the bunch, but he (as well as Lowe) makes less logistical sense as a lefty without positional versatility. 

That leaves us with Vázquez & Bichette. A well-regarded defensive catcher with only modest offensive upside and an infielder whose current status is based more on name recognition than performance. Suppose the pursuit of a legitimate upgrade behind the dish fails. In that case, Vázquez appears to be at least a worthwhile option, coupled with the apparent offensive rise of Miguel Amaya, until Moises Ballesteros is ready. Bichette could cost a haul even with some of his more recent performance & health woes. He presents a similar logistical fallout to Suárez but with a longer-term blockage of Matt Shaw & James Triantos.

This is all a very long way of saying. I’m unsure how much the Chicago Cubs factor into the Top 35 trade candidates, as MLB Trade Rumors illustrate them. Some names could be targets of the front office. And I imagine we’ll hear the Cubs connected to some of the chatter for any number of these names. However, most of them will require either a bit of compromise (in the case of an inter-division trade) or some logistical work, on the other hand, to make a fit more apparent. 

But while we don’t know how the Cubs will be involved with these specific names on the list, it’s interesting to think about how the list could impact the Cubs in other ways. For example, do moves of some of these names add other names to the list, either from the trading or the acquiring organization? There are layers here. And the offseason is just getting started.

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[Bertz]

I wouldn't be as quick to write off deals with the White Sox as much as deals with the NL Central.  We've seen Kimbrel and Quintana in recent years, plus smaller deals like Tepera.  Especially with just how far the Sox are out of contention the Cubs feel as likely of a Crochet suitor as anyone.

And then generally, I think essentially any pitcher that might provide impact is fair game.  Fairbanks making less than $5M is not expensive at all, and even Pressly at $14M with it only being one year I doubt Jed would bat an eye.  Jed hates years, not dollars.  On the SP front I actually think someone like Luzardo is a great fit.  He has injury concerns sure, but A) the Cubs have pitching depth and B) he's slated to make a salary where you could acquire him as part of a two SP offseason.