Which 3 Free-Agent Hitters Have the Constellation of Skills Cubs Need Most?

[Matthew Trueblood]

And don't say Juan Soto.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

While the Cubs' offense might already be better than it looks based on raw numbers from 2024, everyone acknowledges the need for the team to get better and deeper for 2025. In a perfect world, the team would seriously and persistently vie for the services of Juan Soto, the generational, definitive hitter of the upcoming free-agent class. If it wasn't already gallingly apparent, his transcendent impact on a lineup shone through clearly in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series Friday night Saturday night, when he hit the game-winning three-run home run in the 10th inning of the Yankees' taut battle with the Guardians.

In reality, though, the Cubs aren't going to sign Soto. Doing so would not match Jed Hoyer's well-established approach to free agency or Tom Ricketts's equally obvious budgetary vision, and the two New York teams are plainly ready to pony up for Soto. Cross him off your list. However, there will still be lots of intriguing free agents available this winter, and the team does have money to spend.

One way to figure out which available hitters might be good fits is to look at two statistics that sketch their needs in profile. The first is zone swing rate minus chase rate (ZSw-Chase), which reflects the difference between a player's in- and out-of-zone swing rate. Few skills are more valuable than the ability to tell a ball from a strike, but it's especially helpful to be able to defend the zone against the latter, without going fishing for the former. This is already something the Cubs prioritize; they were fifth in MLB in ZSw-Chase last year, trailing the Dodgers, Rangers, Braves, and Mariners.

Another key indicator, however, is the propensity to hit for pwoer, and especially to give yourself a chance to hit for power. To measure this, we can look at the percentage of swings that ended in hard-hit air balls (line drives and fly balls) to a batter's pull field (PHiA/Sw). The Cubs don't do this one well enough. They were just 20th in that skill last season, and as you can see, that not only left a gap between the other disciplined teams like them, but left them far from the most successful slugging offenses in baseball: the Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Yankees.

It's great to be good at controlling the strike zone, but if you can't make opponents pay by driving the ball when they make a mistake, it becomes much less valuable. The Cubs need to climb the above chart vertically next year. Ideally, they'd do so without sliding to the left much. So, let's focus on free agents who do both of these things well.

Only 21 hitters had both ZSw-Chase and PHiA/Sw values among the best quartile of the league last season. The bad news is that a bunch of them--Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Corey Seager, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Francisco Lindor, Ketel Marte, Ozzie Albies, Marcus Semien--are already signed to contracts that tether them to their teams for many more years. New York's Austin Wells doesn't have a long-term deal, but he's under team control for several seasons and isn't likely to be available.

A few guys (Andrew Benintendi, MJ Melendez, Dylan Moore, Jake Bauers) make this list, but have such dubious other credentials that prying them away from their current teams might not be worth the trouble. Marcell Ozuna is on the list, but he's Marcell Ozuna, and is therefore not worth the trouble. A few more (Brandon Lowe, about whom I wrote yesterday, and two more whom we'll discuss in another post later this week) could be better trade targets, and one guy would be a really great target--except it's Michael Busch, whom the Cubs already have.

That leaves three players, inhabiting the same neighborhood as so many of the stars listed above, who are free agents at the end of the World Series. Here they are, along with some thoughts about how they would fit with the Cubs.

Willy Adames, IF
It's been virtually undiscussed, but Adames is a fascinating potential target for a Cubs team whom so many fans specifically want to see add power. He hit 32 home runs and drove in 112 for the Brewers in his walk year, and while the temptation is to view that as a career year, the reality is that Adames has always had huge power for a middle infielder. He's averaged 28 homers and 31 doubles per season over the last four, with a .210 isolated power (ISO) mark. His selectivity has gotten markedly better over the last two seasons, too, and would fit in gorgeously with the Cubs.

Positionally, of course, the fit is tougher, but Adames's defense took a big step backward at shortstop last year. Even in the short term, he's better cast as a third or second baseman, where he would be brilliant and more able to establish himself in a lasting way. Historically, it's a good bet that the best deal a shortstop will be offered in free agency will come from someone who views them as a shortstop.

That might be changing, though. Carlos Correa nearly signed a deal to become the Mets' third baseman two winters ago. Marcus Semien signed on as a second baseman when he and Corey Seager landed with the Rangers in the same winter the previous year. Regular shortstops over age 30 are becoming almost unheard-of, and that trend figures to continue as the game leans ever more toward youth and athleticism. The Cubs could elect to be the high bidders on Adames, on a deal similar to the one to which they signed Dansby Swanson two winters ago, and move him to second base, anyway. He'd be an even better defender at that spot than Nico Hoerner, and a considerably better hitter with a skill set better matched to the team's needs.

Max Kepler, RF
This possibility hinges quite a bit on whether Cody Bellinger opts out of his deal after the conclusion of the World Series, because Kepler has no secondary position and Bellinger would slot in as the right fielder if he elects to stick around. Should Bellinger elect to test the waters again, though, Kepler would be one relatively modestly priced way for the team to replace him and seek some upside.

Over a decade in Minnesota, Kepler established a reputation for frustratingly underachieving his expected batted-ball numbers and his talent, but when healthy, he can rake. The big hole in Adames's offensive game is the same as the one in most of the hitters who fit this group but aren't superstars: he whiffs a lot, even within the zone. Not Kepler. In fact, there is no glaring weakness in Kepler's offensive game, other than a certain propensity to hit some of his sharpest balls on the ground to the right side.

Staying healthy has been an issue, and he's only had end-to-end strong seasons in 2019 and 2023, but Kepler could be a very good change-of-scenery candidate. He's also a marvelous defender in right field, and would complete arguably baseball's best defensive outfield on a deal that would leave the team plenty of money to attack their needs on the bench and the pitching staff.

Ramón Laureano, OF
We've gone in alphabetical order here, but as it happens, we've also stepped neatly down by tiers. Adames would be a high-dollar, winter-defining addition. Kepler would be a complementary move, but a meaningful one, and he'd come in expecting to play nearly every day. Laureano is not even a lock to become a free agent; he's just a near-lock to be non-tendered by Atlanta. He's been a toolsy, fascinating player throughout his career, but the stocky, strong-armed right-handed slugger has had three below-average seasons at the plate in the last five. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to make $6.1 million via arbitration, and given the fact that Atlanta also dealt for the hefty contract of Jorge Soler this summer, they're unlikely to retain him at that price.

Laureano has never had even 500 plate appearances in a season, though part of the reason for that is the pandemic, and another part is a suspension for using PEDs in 2021. He'd come in to serve as a sometimes-DH and right fielder, spelling and platooning with players like Ian Happ and Owen Caissie, or even Bellinger. He thrived in his brief time with the Braves, though, proving the staying power of his impressive power when it's focused by a smart approach at the plate.

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The Cubs should enter this offseason looking to add more than one new bat, just as they should be looking to add more than one new arm. None of these three players would be exciting as the top move of the winter, but in various versions of the winter, each could fit the team's needs and capacities. They all bring a combination of selective aggressiveness and power to the table, and that makes them worth examining as targets for the Cubs when free agency opens and ramps up over the coming weeks.

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