Cody Bellinger is Finishing Just Strong Enough to Make Opting Out Possible, After All

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Cubs' right fielder is on a torrid September run, and while it's been fueled by some friendly weather and park factors, it just might take him out to free agency again.

Image courtesy of © Chet Strange-Imagn Images

So far in September, Cody Bellinger is hitting .304/.396/.587, with four home runs. Those bombs came on hot nights at Wrigley Field, at Dodger Stadium, and in Coors Field, and the real power behind his power binge is a bit suspect, but it's still of interest. Bellinger has spent much of this season playing banged-up, and it's often shown up in his stat line. Aided by weather and more than his raw batted-ball data might support or not, a string of long hits at the end of the season is making Bellinger a more plausible free agent.

Since fully recovering from the finger injury that sidelined him in July, Bellinger is swinging better. He's generating more bat speed, after a massive dip in August that coincided with terrible production for most of that month.

Come the end of the season, Bellinger can elect free agency, or opt in to a $30-million salary for 2025, while retaining an option for $20 million more in 2026. For most of the last two months, it's been nigh unfathomable--whatever national pundits examining the situation from a great remove and without sufficient specific information--that Bellinger would be better served by opting in. There was always some chance that he and agent Scott Boras would make a massive mistake, but it was clear that the correct choice for them was to opt in.

That's probably still true, really. Bellinger will turn 30 next summer, and September sizzle be damned, his power is faltering a bit. He has just 42 extra-base hits, in 518 plate appearances. Four injuries and declining stats suggest that he's not a center fielder, and his inability to play at an elite level when he's not fully healthy suggests he's not a star worth $30 million per year. The same quirky batted-ball data that kept his market cool last winter will probably keep it cool this winter, and the league's increasing problems with regional TV revenue figure to be bad for it, too.

Still, Bellinger has come around nicely, and if he can continue to slug over the final fortnight of the campaign, his surface-level numbers will look fairly good. If he and Boras remain overconfident, they really might take a leap of faith this winter, figuring that there will be either a similar deal to the one he'd be leaving behind waiting for them--or else, a longer one, albeit at a considerably lower annual average value. It would be good news for the Cubs if Bellinger did pursue that path. They could use more financial flexibility, and if they ended up retaining Bellinger on the other side of an opt-out, it would have to be at a lower price.

It remains more likely that Bellinger sticks around, and that wouldn't be so bad, either. He's still a productive player, and the short-term deal to which he's signed isn't onerous. He's showing the ability to meet the ball squarely, at a level that he didn't for much of the season. Barreling the ball helps make up for the fact that he doesn't swing as fast as most other players who hit for plus power, and while it hasn't resulted in actual plus power consistently this year, Bellinger is making big progress there of late.

The team has plenty of money coming off its books this winter. The only big hurdle Bellinger opting in would create would be a clogged lineup spot. The Cubs need more power. They need to add a big bat or two to their lineup. Bellinger doesn't really count as such a player, and if he returns, they'll need to get more creative to make the needed upgrades. That's why, if Bellinger does stay hot for the balance of September and opt out this fall, it will make the Cubs' life easier.

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[painhertz]

Enough to give up $30M next year?  Nope.