The Dark Side of Miguel Amaya's Phenomenal Second Half for Cubs

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Don’t look now, but the Chicago Cubs might just have their catcher of the future…

 

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

…is a thing I would say, if I were a more optimistic person in matters of this particular franchise. There’s no doubt that Miguel Amaya’s second half has been superb. It’s inarguable. After a first half in which he hit only .201 and ran a paltry 58 wRC+, Amaya has been a massive boon to a Cubs offense that has shown actual signs of life at different times over the last few weeks.

His second-half numbers read as follows: .311/.346/.527, 12.5 K%, 5.0 BB%, .216 ISO, 143 wRC+. Amaya falls in the top 5-7 among qualifying backstops in virtually every category since the start of the second half, with very slim margins separating him from the top in most instances. That illustrates just how legitimate his impact has been since he made some mechanical adjustments and refined the approach.

That’s the component of this stretch of play that has been discussed: the adjustments. We’ve discussed multiple angles of the changes here at NSBB, with Matt Trueblood most recently looking at the chaos present within the nuances of Amaya’s changes that have led to such rapid gains in his offensive performance. Further discussion of the changes, however, is not our purpose here. We’re not even interested in the sustainability of it all, in the more literal sense.

Instead, the focus here is on the implications this could have on the catcher spot moving forward, from an organizational standpoint. More specifically, we’re interested in how this could impact the team’s perspective of the position.

Because there’s a very direct outcome that seems almost too obvious at this point. We all know what it is. Miguel Amaya carries his run through the end of 2024. The Cubs – who reportedly made an inspired pitch to acquire Los Angeles Angels catcher Logan O’Hoppe prior to the trade deadline, showcasing a clear desire to upgrade their future behind the dish – decide that Amaya has now earned a longer runway with which to latch onto the catcher-of-the-future gig. They fill in the backup spot with a glove-first veteran, add their traditional third catcher to stash in Iowa, and call it a day.

Again, it’s almost too obvious. This is a conservative front office. I won’t go as far as saying they’ll choose the path of least resistance. But Jed Hoyer-led leadership has shown a certain degree of loyalty to players already in the organization, at the expense of pursuing outside additions.

Not that there’s exactly a plethora of outside talent to be had on the catching market. In free agency, you’ve got Elías Díaz, Danny Jansen, and an array of players who would serve as a no. 2, at best. They could take another run at O’Hoppe, but the trade market is likely to be even more barren than the free-agent class. Once you have an upper-tier catcher, you’re not likely to let them walk.

With that in mind, I do think that the offseason context would make the obvious approach here simultaneously logical. Amaya has shown that, at his best, you could do far worse. The fear, however, is that the front office doesn’t even make the effort. They’ve seen what they need to see over a two- or three-month span, and move on to examining other avenues of offensive upgrades within the roster. That, dear reader, would be bad business. I wouldn’t go as far as saying dereliction of duty, but I’m also not not saying that.

We’ve seen Miguel Amaya at his best. But we also have a far more extended sample of him at his worst. Perhaps the breakout is real, and he can be an above-average hitter from behind the plate. What that doesn’t mean, however, is that the Cubs should merely hand him the keys to the gig. I don’t think leadership is foolish enough to do exactly that. The fear persists, though. We’ve seen this front office play it safe far too often. Failing to make meaningful additions and then attempting to gas up the upside is how they’ve found themselves mired in offensive mediocrity for almost the entirety of 2024.

I don’t know if Amaya’s adjustments will hold up. And I don’t know if the Cubs can even find legitimate catching help on any market this winter. I do know that this team in the Jed Hoyer Era has a track record with respect to decision-making. And this stretch of play is reigniting those fears.

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

The motivation behind that type of decision(which is missing the apparently copious examples to begin with?) is not some ambiguous loyalty to home grown players, it's about asset allocation through the roster and where it makes sense to put your chips.  Catcher is a position where most backups start 50 games a year, so it does make sense to put resources into the position.  We know Jed thinks this way because he put non-trivial money into Gomes with Contreras still around.  And this offseason there are fewer holes to put resources in than there have been in his tenure, increasing the likelihood that he's not gonna just count on Amaya for 130 starts and call it a day.

[Bertz]

The Athletic literally yesterday pushed back on this.  The Logan O'hoppe news was from a separate Sharma article two weeks two weeks ago that more or less said the Cubs are happy with Amaya's hot streak but catcher is still a top priority this winter.