The Cubs Should Call up Moisés Ballesteros

[Jake Russell]

It's a good time to roll some dice and to maximize the potential challenge for a top prospect--even if the likelihood of a Yahtzee is fairly remote.

Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

From behind the plate have emanated some of the Cubs' worst problems this season. Yan Gomes produced -1.2 fWAR in under 100 plate appearances, and was released in late June. Miguel Amaya has come on of late, but overall, his season is marked by regression from last season, rather than the leap the team hoped he would take. Tomás Nido has been just about the only good defensive catcher the Cubs have rostered all year, but he coupled that with a disqualifying -2 wRC+ and is currently on the IL. Christian Bethancourt has produced strong offense in a minuscule sample, but has almost zero track record of success, and is a poor defensive catcher overall.

Despite Amaya’s hot streak recently, his overall production has still been lackluster. Unless there is a drastic change in his profile, he likely is not going to be a sustainably good hitter–although I also doubt he is as bad as the 58 wRC+ he had before the All-Star Break.

All this to say: Cubs catchers have not been productive. Just one unit as a whole has been less productive than the North Siders' this season–the corps on the other side of town, on the team already eliminated from playoff contention and threatening the modern record for losses. Cubs catchers' 56 wRC+ is third-to-last in the big leagues. According to FanGraphs, they have been the fourth-worst framing unit in baseball; Statcast ranks them as the sixth-worst. They are seventh-worst in overall Statcast Fielding Run Value, which is why I think what I am about to suggest is a little bit less radical than people may think.

Moisés Ballesteros has truly made a name for himself this season. In Double-A, the 20-year-old had a 152 wRC+, walked nearly 10% of the time, struck out less than 15% of the time, and had 9 home runs in a dead-ball league, before earning a call-up to Triple-A Iowa. Ballesteros has had his share of ups and downs, but through 41 games, he carries a slash line of .272/.331/.481, good for a 107 wRC+, including a 103-MPH exit velocity home run last night. Though a 107 wRC+ doesn’t sound crazy, his underlying data supports it, and given his youth and the speed of his promotion, his adjustment curve has been impressively short. Plus, he already has a 109.9 maximum and 105.3 90th-percentile exit velocity–at just 20 years old. The offensive tools are legit.

Of course, there is real cause for concern with Ballesteros. His defense has graded out as subpar. MLB Pipeline gives him a 45 defensive grade, which may be generous. Baseball Prospectus tracks defensive metrics for Minor League Baseball, which is especially useful for catcher defense. In just over 200 innings caught, Ballesteros has been worth about -0.6 runs according to Prospectus. At Double-A, where he caught closer to 230 innings, the figure was -1.6. In total, this is roughly a pace of -6 runs per 150 games. If you're shopping for optimism, TruMedia is much more encouraging, as their model pegs Ballesteros as 3.5 runs better than average in Iowa, albeit in a tiny sample. He's done especially well on high pitches.

Of course, none of these metrics are likely to be as accurate as those available at the MLB level, but it’s a good point of reference. So is the fact that his managers have used him at DH almost as many times (34) as behind the plate (53) this season. Ballesteros, while just 20 years old, has struggled behind the plate in his professional baseball career. But, he just might already be their best offensive option at catcher.

As of this weekend, prospects yet to be promoted to their major-league ballclub this year can be called up, without losing their rookie eligibility for 2025. Thus, such players can still make their teams eligible for Prospect Promotion Incentive draft picks based on their performance next year. I think, at this point, it makes a lot of sense for the Cubs to call up Ballesteros and make him the primary catcher for the rest of the season.

Yes, there are the aforementioned defensive issues, but again, Cubs catchers have been arguably a bottom-five unit in baseball this year, anyway. The team has little to lose by getting Ballesteros the experience at this point. Whatever successes or failures he finds in MLB will be more telling than the same performances in Des Moines.

Of course, he is just 20 years old–but the bat is already advanced beyond his years. Just two other players are even in their 20-year-old seasons in Triple-A this year, and they’re arguably the top two prospects in baseball: Jackson Holliday and Junior Caminero, who are both currently in the majors. Ballesteros is younger than Caminero.

The Cubs should give Ballesteros a shot to prove himself early. Even if he struggles out of the gate in MLB, which is possible, the insight gained could be more valuable than anything they get from Bethancourt. Ballesteros is almost certainly a better hitter than Bethancourt, and Bethancourt is already a poor defender. Plus, he may just be the Cubs best catching option right now, and the Cubs are not completely out of the playoff race yet. This is a move that could help the Cubs as an organization not only in the long term, but right now, as well. It's the kind of boom-or-bust move a team that is already nearly busted ought to consider, and many of the drawbacks to it have faded out of the picture.

View full article

[painhertz]

No. He's 20. He's not on the 40 man roster and he's not rule 5 eligible until after 2027. No value in starting his clock this early.

[Rex Buckingham]