They Got Away With It Saturday Night, But Cubs Need a Better Replay Challenge Process

[Matthew Trueblood]

It's a pretty simple one, too: stop relying so damn much on the video room.

Image courtesy of © Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

In the bottom of the ninth inning of the Cubs' 3-1 win Saturday night, things got off to a chaotic start. Two different fans jumped from the stands onto the playing field during the break between the top and bottom of the frame, requiring security to remove them, and one managed to add injury to their own insult to the game, slowing that process down. Then, when the game resumed, White Sox batter Brooks Baldwin hit a tricky chopper to Michael Busch at first base.

The angle of the grounder required Busch to range to his right to snare it, and the medium speed of it made beating Baldwin to the base impossible. However, Héctor Neris hustled over, and Busch made a well-timed, strong throw that led him right to the bag. Alas, Neris dropped the ball--but then, in an impressive recovery, seized the ball barehanded on a high bounce, while dragging his toe to hold the base in stride.

First-base umpire Larry Vanover, understandably, called Baldwin safe. In real time, it was nearly impossible to anticipate and see that Neris would recover the way he did. On slow-motion replays, though, it was breahtakingly close, and it probably (though we're talking a 52% chance, maybe, not a 95% one) would have been overturned by a challenge. Alas, the Cubs didn't make one. They were caught trying to discern whether there was a good enough chance of that overturn or not, and when they asked for the review, they did so too late.

That's inexcusable, but it's also sadly common. The Cubs aren't alone in this regard, but it's peculiar that it's become a problem at all. It's all born of an overly rigid process. For whatever reason, even knowing the rules that place a firm time limit on the decision to challenge, several teams cleave to a paradigm whereby every close play is subject to the same steps:

1. Hold action with a gesture from the manager to the umps.
2. Put a coach on the phone with the video room.
3. Wait, wait, wait, until the video room staffer renders a decision.

While perfectly sound as a general mode of operation, that system doesn't have sufficient flexibility. Late in games, or when an especially high-leverage play is under consideration, teams need to think less and act more. Waiting for the video room to make a call on a close and unusual play like the Busch-Neris one Saturday night makes no sense at all. Nothing material is lost if the play isn't overturned. The gain if it is, however, is huge.

Counsell has won 14 of 24 challenges this year, but the denominator in that equation for success rate is more important than the numerator. No one wants a manager who blindly challenges everything, even when there's no hope. That's just creating needless delays, in a game newly committed to a crisp pace. When it's a close call whether or not to challenge and it's either past the midpoint of the game or a situation with above-average leverage in terms of win probability, though, teams should be much more aggressive about this, and much less dedicated to waiting out the video room.

Having a fixed process is comforting, but it's also often self-defeating. Only 12 teams have made fewer challenges than the Cubs this year. Call it a coincidence if you wish, but the two teams who have issued the most are the Phillies and Guardians, who boast two of the three best records in baseball. Philadelphia's Rob Thomson has won a league-best 24 of those, and while Stephen Vogt has only won half of his total challenges, that still comes to 18 of them. By being half again as aggressive as Craig Counsell and company, the Guardians staff has earned four extra calls this year.

Most of the complaints of paralysis by analysis in baseball are misplaced. This one isn't. The Cubs, and several other teams, should demand replay reviews more often, and with less deliberation--if only a little bit more and less, respectively.

View full article