Is It Even Possible to Catch Cubs Rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong Stealing?

[Matthew Trueblood]

We know, as of about a year ago, that it was possible. But some things have changed.

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

If the season ended today, Pete Crow-Armstrong would be tied for the fourth-most stolen bases in a season by a player who was not caught stealing during that campaign. He's 21-for-21; the only guys who have gone whole seasons with more steals and no times caught are Chase Utley (23, 2009), Alcides Escobar (22, 2013), and Trea Turner (30, just last season). Obviously, that's cheating a bit, because the rules have changed and bases are bigger, and those two things have made stealing bases easier. It's also cheating because teams used to allow (or even force) fast runners to go more often, decades ago, making it almost impossible to get through a season without being thrown out. You were supposed to run until they started nabbing you. And finally, it's unfair because it's perfectly possible Crow-Armstrong will be thrown out before the season ends, anyway.

Or is it?

Last year, it was possible to catch Crow-Armstrong stealing. In fact, it happened 10 times, between Triple-A and the big leagues. Two of those were in the majors. One was a busted play on a would-be steal of home with runners at the corners. Here's the other one.

Stealing bases is a skill. It requires exceptionally good technique, although the rigors of the discipline are less stern in the age of the pitch timer. Stealing third is an especially tricky skill, too, because the throw down to that base is shorter for the opposing catcher, and because the angle you want to take from your lead off of second base toward the base is a bit different than the one you create when you take off from first and are heading into second. The count of your strides and the timing of your slide should be different going to third. As you can see above, last year, Crow-Armstrong didn't have those skills.

He also just wasn't a very good slider, period. A good headfirst slide is, more than most fans realize, more of a launch than a dive. You don't want to hit the dirt too soon, too far from the base, both because that sudden friction will slow you down much more than gliding low above the ground and because the moment your chest or midsection hits the dirt, you lose all ability to adjust your direction or avoid a tag. In the air, you have more options. Crow-Armstrong, above, slid hard and early, hit the dirt too hard too soon, plowed into his own dislodged helmet, and was unable to change his path to the base. It was his first series as a big-leaguer. We should be gentle. But he lacked technique.

This year, though, he's mastered the rudiments. He's taking aggressive, bouncing leads, and his jumps are making most steal attempts non-events. Opponents are trying stuff, but it's mostly not working. Few of his steals have even been close plays. Let's take a look at those few, to see what we can learn.

Let's start back at third base, again.

This one is almost proof that you could, theoretically, throw out even the skilled-up Crow-Armstrong. He gets a solid jump, but the Phillies aren't quite caught by surprise, and he slides much more efficiently, maintaining his speed all the way to the bag, but it's still pretty darn close. Look how much the ball beat him by.

But, the fact that the ball beat him by this much and he was still safe tells you something, too. Firstly, wow, is Crow-Armstrong fast, and that better headfirst slide lets him decelerate much more smoothly into the base, such that a tagger has to be incredibly quick. The shorter distance on the throw helps, but the timing of the play makes it hard to aim that throw low and slightly to the inside of the base, where it would optimally be. The catcher has to throw to a moving target and knows an errant throw means a run. Most throws to third are chest- or shoulder-high like this, and right on the line, out of a conservatism that won't work against Crow-Armstrong.

Here, though, they come even closer.

The pitch takes Curt Casali nicely into his throw, and Matt Chapman positions his body beautifully for a quick tag. The throw is slightly inside the line, although still higher than you'd put it if you had all day to get it off. Crow-Armstrong's jump was just too good. He had them beaten before the ball even got to Casali.

Because of his sheer speed and the frequency with which he gets such great jumps, teams have tried to anticipate and thwart him. Here, the Cardinals tried an increasingly common tactic throughout the league, with Pedro Pages getting into position to throw before the pitch is even thrown. The thing is, doing that makes it harder to catch the ball.

Another, more traditional approach is the pitchout.

Maybe in some near-future version of the game in which the old fundamentals are more carefully observed, that play will work again. Pitchouts are shockingly rare these days, though, and it shows. Hunter Greene didn't look comfortable throwing the ball there, and Luke Maile didn't make a good throw. If he had, the Reds could have retired Crow-Armstrong. Here's the proof of that.

If that throw is a bit higher--if it can be caught on the fly by Jonathan India, right on that same line--the tag is on Crow-Armstrong's leg before his hand reaches the base. In the real world, though, the throw got to India on a short hop, and his glove was going up instead of down when he caught it. He had no chance to get it back down before Crow-Armstrong reached the base.

Teams are doing everything they can come up with against Crow-Armstrong, but his speed is elite and his baserunning nous has caught up to it. It's almost impossible to catch him now. He stole 10 bases without being caught in Triple-A, in addition to 21 in the majors, and he swiped three bases in as many tries in Cactus League play. He's stolen 34 bases without all that close a call this year.

It's definitely possible, though. Crow-Armstrong can still be thrown out. Here's how we know.

They had him! This was Crow-Armstrong's first big-league steal of the season, and it could have stopped this discussion before it began. Jeff McNeil just had to not trip over the base on the way to the throw. The throw was on the money, and it had Crow-Armstrong dead to rights.

That's not to say it would have been an easy play. McNeil would have caught the ball right above the base, and had to reach out to get Crow-Armstrong before he reached the bag. It was a very makeable play, though. This is just the final wild card of the new version of the game. There's the fact that catchers are selected for framing pitches, rather than throwing; there's the inability to throw over more than once or twice to hold runners, and the way each throw emboldens and empowers them; there's the incredible speed of a player like Crow-Armstrong; and then there's the big old base, which not only makes it easier to reach and hold the bag upon arrival but can pose a hazard to an inattentive fielder.

He can be caught, but these attempts to see how it would happen only underscore how unlikely it is on any given try. Crow-Armstrong should keep running; it's vital to the Cubs' efforts to stay dangerous and balanced all the way to the bottom of the batting order.

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