Take a Good Look at the Twins This Week. One of Them Could Be a Cub in 2025.

[Matthew Trueblood]

This winter will bring change to the Cubs roster. They'll need to be opportunistic and aggressive. One team with whom they might need to get together on a move will occupy the visitor's clubhouse at Wrigley Field for another two days.

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

It's not too early to start thinking about the 2025 Chicago Cubs. In fact, that's what the team should be spending the balance of the 2024 season doing. Their recent promotion of Matt Shaw, James Triantos, and Kevin Alcántara to Triple-A Iowa shows that they're doing just that, and if they want to think a little more concretely about it, they can closely watch their opponents this week: the Minnesota Twins.

We're already a year or two into the slow deflation of the local TV rights bubble in baseball. Bally Sports has been a disastrous partnership for the league, but the cliff over which several teams' rights contracts have careened was coming, either way. Several teams have been limited in their spending power recently by the loss of part of the revenue to which they'd become accustomed from that source, but the Twins are one of the most acutely affected--and that will remain true this coming winter.

Minnesota re-signed in a semi-emergency move with Bally Sports North early this year, but they're not going to be back on that platform in 2025. Already, too, their payouts from Bally have declined. Their revenue streams are thinning and the Pohlad family, who owns the team, have given strict orders for a long-term cap on payroll. This is a fairly recent development, though.

That's important, because right before that cutback went into effect, the team's front office spent rather handsomely. Carlos Correa is on a long-term deal with the team. So is Pablo López. Byron Buxton still has a few years left on his own long-term deal. That's in addition to a fistful of players who are due to start getting paid pretty well via arbitration in 2025, and the cumulative effect is that the team will need to find ways to cut payroll this winter.

Enter the Cubs, who need to think flexibly about how to add high-end talent to their organization. Pairing up with a team in the Twins' position in trade can help them accomplish that in one of two ways:

1. Acquiring a player who would otherwise be unavailable, but whom their current team can't afford to retain; or
2. Taking on a bad contract that gives that team some spending power back, and getting a valuable prospect in the process.

Buxton and Correa are probably off-limits, and the complexity of moving and valuing either of their contracts would be prohibitively difficult. López is getting a big raise next year, but he's the Twins' ace and they value him too much to let him go. There are, however, three players who stand out as good trade candidates.

Ryan Jeffers
At 27, Jeffers is battling through a very difficult season. He's a catcher who takes his duties seriously and acquits himself behind the plate, but he's not a plus defender. At his best, his value has been bat-first, but this year, he's a mess at bat. The timing is bad for the player and the team, because he gained arbitration eligibility this past winter. He's making $2.43 million this year, and that number will go up next season.

If the Cubs are open to a project at a relatively low cost, Jeffers figures to be available this winter, and while he's good enough to earn a tender even from the payroll-limited Twins, his surplus trade value will be low--and the team will be motivated to realize it.

Christian Vázquez
The other catcher for the Twins this year is the man the Cubs tried to outbid the Twins for two winters ago. Minnesota ended up shelling out $30 million over three years for Vázquez, and there's still one year of eight-figure obligation left after this campaign ends. The respected veteran and defensive specialist could be a great fit for the Cubs next year, whether they stick with Miguel Amaya or try to move on to Moises Ballesteros. The Twins need to move one of Vázquez and Jeffers, and if it be the former, it would be a pure salary dump. The Cubs would even need to get more net value in the trade. Normally, that kind of deal just doesn't happen, but the Twins need to get something done.

Jhoan Durán
We saved the best--or at least the most intriguing--for last. Durán is due to become arbitration-eligible this winter, and because he throws a million miles per hour and has racked up an impressive number of saves in his young career, he'll get expensive in a hurry. Nor is he clearly the Twins' relief ace at this point, given the impressive progress of Griffin Jax. This acquisition, of course, would be costly, but if you're among those who have dreamed about Mason Miller at all this year, bend a thought toward Durán. If the Twins are sufficiently enticed, they'll be happy to let a high-octane relief weapon go, given the needle they need to thread financially.

The Cubs need to fill one or more need this winter via free agency, but they'll also need to fill some via trade. The Twins are a promising partner. There might not be a perfect fit, but there are plenty of possible ones to explore.

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