Three Historical MLB Trades To Show The Risks & Rewards Of The Cubs Trading Justin Steele

[Brian Kelder]

The Cubs should entertain offers for all their players, and Justin Steele would be their best chip. With three years of control, current health status, and great production, any team would value Steele and what he would bring down the stretch.  

What could the Cubs expect in return for such a deal? History has few examples of pitchers with years remaining around Justin Steele’s level at the deadline, but they exist. Twitter is chirping with rumors of Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet; the Cubs should explore the return for Justin Steele.

Trade One
Pirates receive Chris Archer for Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and Shane Baz.

Chris Archer, yes, a former Cubs farmhand dealt to Tampa in an ill-fated deal for Matt Garza, is a good comparison to Steele. At his peak, Archer was a low three ERA pitcher with a 252-strikeout season under his belt. The Rays did seem to goof a bit, as his age 27-29 seasons watched him lose his control, with a WHIP around 1.40 for those three seasons.

Cubs fans will recall constant rumors about Archer as a rare, controllable ace, much like Steele, and the comparison is apt. Even when he was traded, Archer had two years left of team control. For a time, he was the controllable theoretical ace who was available.

The Pirates swooped in and saw Archer as the missing piece to their playoff run (he wasn’t). At the time, they dealt the number nine prospect, Austin Meadows, an outfielder who debuted with a .795 OPS, to Tampa. Tyler Glasnow has had a stellar career despite injuries, and even as a control-challenged fireballer who struggled for his first season to a 2.06 WHIP and 6.03 FIP, it was plain to see the former tenth-ranked prospect’s potential. Shane Baz was a young fireballer who served as an object lesson to never deal with the Rays.

The Verdict
As long as the Cubs aren’t dealing with Tampa, this is the trade they must make with Steele. Two top-ten prospects and a high-upside flier would boost the farm system, giving the Cubs a better long-term chance at a hitting star. This would be a great trade for Tampa Bay, and a similar deal would be outstanding for the Cubs.

Another parallel to note is Archer and his health. At age 29, he began to have arm trouble and had thoracic outlet surgery, which was never effective after that. Steele had a Tommy John in the past and a forearm strain last year. Steele misses a month (back, two hamstrings, forearm) every season, and the time is right to move him before he breaks completely.

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Trade Two
Frank Viola to the Mets for Rick Aguilera, Kevin Tapani, David West, Tim Drummond, and Jack Savage

Wow, this fits pretty well, except that Sweet Music Viola had just signed a big-money deal with the Twins and was pitching poorly and alienating his teammates. With three and a half years remaining on the contract, the Twins hit the reset button.

In 1989, the Twins went 80-82, similar to a certain team this website is dedicated to covering. They saw the opportunity to add Rick Aguilera.

Aguilera was a closer, which worked well, winning the World Series two years later and earning 42 saves. Tapani became almost equal to Viola. David West contributed but didn’t break out until he moved to the bullpen and Philadelphia in 1993.

Verdict
There’s no sign that Steele is any sort of diva; if I said that to his face, the Mississippi guys would probably make me feel somewhat uncomfortable. This trade did give a starter, a closer, a prospect, and financial flexibility, which was used to sign Chili Davis. Yes, the Cubs could do a trade like this, but if flexibility is the goal, then deal Jameson Taillon and keep Steele.

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Trade Three
Tigers trade Justin Verlander for Daz Cameron, P Franklin Perez, and C Jake Rogers.

Ouch. All Verlander did was win a World Series, have two more Cy Young quality seasons, and solidify his Hall of Fame candidacy. The Tigers didn’t make a good trade here for an ace with this amount of time remaining. Franklin Perez battled injuries and poor performance and is out of the minors. Cameron toils now as a backup in Oakland, and Rogers is a weak hitting catcher for the Tigers.

The Verdict
The problem here was the upside in the prospects wasn’t there. Only Perez was a top 100 prospect and only ranked 46. The Cubs shouldn’t do this kind of deal. They have enough of that level of prospect already. This trade for Steele would be a future salary dump and set the team back years.

The Cubs should look to deal Steele for a similar package as Chris Archer: two top-ten prospects and a flier. If they can get that kind of return, their trajectory will be altered quickly. Shop Steele and work for a more sustainable future.

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