If Cubs Trade Nico Hoerner, It Should Be to One of These Teams

[Matthew Trueblood]

Though a fan favorite and a player under team and cost control for two and a half more seasons, the Cubs' second baseman might be the best realistic trade chip for the team this month. Four contenders, especially, stand out as potential partners.

Image courtesy of © Jeff Le-USA TODAY Sports

It's been without power, but in the first half of July, Nico Hoerner has appeared to come around a bit at the plate. He's not ever likely to blossom into a powerful hitter, and he seems to be at his best when he understands and embraces that reality, using the whole field and keeping a sound plan at the plate. When pitchers work him away and he can stroke a line drive toward right-center field, he's the best form of himself.

This month, Hoerner is batting .296/.344/.352, and if you go back 30 days, it's .282/.345/.379. That's not as valuable as the .375ish OBP he ran for the last three months of 2023, but it's a dramatic improvement from how he played for much of May and early June, when he seemed hampered by injuries he was electing to play through. Hoerner will be the Cub most worthy of careful watching coming out of the break, because if he's rested and healthy and maintains the approach we've seen lately, he might really take off.

Should that happen, Jed Hoyer will find his phone ringing fairly often over the next 10 days, as he and his staff plot their course toward the trade deadline. Hoerner is a great defender and baserunner. He's 27 years old. Under the terms of the contract to which he and the Cubs agreed last spring, he'll make $23.5 million over the course of 2025 and 2026. He's a valuable middle infielder, though not quite the star the Cubs hoped they could help him become.

There are three playoff-hopeful teams in desperate straits when it comes to second base, and one more who badly needs a shortstop. If they come calling about Hoerner, there might be a fit worth exploring.

Seattle Mariners
This one is already in the streets, as it were, though it got there by way of a fairly speculative report from Jon Morosi. The Mariners have a broad-spectrum need for more offense, but they're also not getting the defensive work they hoped for from offseason import Jorge Polanco. The switch-hitting veteran is a good cautionary tale for lovers of Hoerner, in that he had every tool but true power at his peak, but has not aged gracefully. Like Hoerner, Polanco is a former shortstop whose dearth of arm strength and the loss of half a step has forced him to move to second. This year, as he's turned 31 years old, he's hitting just .206/.302/.326, and he's struggling to stay on the field.

Polanco is on a contract almost exactly as rich as Hoerner's, with a team option attached for 2025. Presumably, the Mariners want out from under those obligations. The Cubs and Seattle could swap the two players, keeping the cash essentially neutral and ensuring the best possible return for Chicago. The Mariners have a roughly average farm system, weighted toward players who are young and far from the big leagues, but they and the Cubs could still match up nicely on a trade. Colt Emerson, whom the M's took 22nd overall last summer, is one name worth watching in such a move, but so is Brody Hopkins, whom they took much later and who converted from the outfield to the mound after transferring during college. Hopkins is a high-ceiling arm who could move quickly through the farm system, and would have to appeal to a Cubs organization still building up its pitching depth.

Boston Red Sox
If possible, the Sox are even more destitute at second than Seattle, with a mélange of bad options through which they've shuffled hopelessly this season. They're in the unique spot of being weak on both sides of the keystone right now, and while their farm system holds hope for those positions in the medium term, new Boston boss Craig Breslow (the erstwhile Cubs guru) didn't acquire those guys, and might not be enamored of those possibilities. Either way, in the meantime, the Sox have possession of a Wild Card berth at the moment, and would surely be willing to swap a little bit of the last front office's farm system for the chance to secure that spot, even as they build toward a more robustly competitive future.

Kansas City Royals
You can't deny it: Hoerner just feels like a Royal. The biggest surprise contender of the season to date, Kansas City has tried a large number of players at second base, but none of them (not Michael Massey, not Nick Loftin, not (unsurprisingly) Adam Frazier) has brought both the caliber of defense they demand and any level of offensive competence.

Hoerner could be a salve for that problem. He'd be a nice medium-term double play partner for the more explosive Bobby Witt Jr., and the kind of buttress they need in the lower portion of their lineup. He'd also thrive in the big spaces of Kauffman Stadium, on a team that loves to steal bases. The Royals' farm system is weaker than most, but it's trended in the right direction this season. Carter Jensen, whom they drafted out of high school in 2021 and have brought along slowly to ensure he sticks at catcher, is hitting .271/.384/.436 in the Midwest League, and should be promoted to Double-A roughly any minute (be it by the Royals, or some acquiring team).

Atlanta
Finally, there's the preseason NL East favorites, who suddenly find themselves lagging well behind the Phillies and who have a hole at shortstop. They're getting a very rude reminder of why Orlando Arcia was so willing to sign a very team-friendly contract extension, as he's hitting .211/.244/.333 this year. Arcia's not going to recover or improve. The team isn't much invested in him, but nor do they have another viable option at the moment. Hoerner would be a huge upgrade for them, and he would essentially be a time-release replacement for the man who bumped him off shortstop a year and a half ago.

Atlanta's farm system is better than it has any right to be, given how consistently excellent and aggressive they have been under Alex Anthoupolos. The question is whether they would view Hoerner as a sufficient step up to justify depleting their depth at the top. The Cubs shouldn't trade Hoerner to Atlanta without getting one of Nacho Alvarez, AJ Smith-Shawver, Spencer Schwellenbach, or Hurston Waldrep, but those four are all either in Triple-A or the majors already. Alvarez is a shortstop, but really only profiles at third base in MLB, and would be an OBP machine but one without power. He's blocked by Austin Riley.

Atlanta might be open to moving him, but whether they'd do so for Hoerner probably depends on what they think they could get out of him, above and beyond what the Cubs have. The other three are potential mid-rotation starters, and are all very close to being so in the big leagues. It's hard to let such players go, when you're in the middle of a long winning window and intend to win another World Series soon.

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Trading Hoerner, like trading Justin Steele, would be part of a multi-faceted maneuver aimed at restructuring and reloading an organization that can't currently compete with the likes of the Brewers--let alone the titans on each coast. Sending him out would allow them to plan for Matt Shaw or Christopher Morel at second base in the next year or two, and perhaps for much longer. Getting a great arm for him might make it easier to trade Steele for the kind of major offensive force missing from the system, and having such a player under cost control (while getting out from under their eight-figure annual obligations to Hoerner) would make it easier to go replace Steele or land a lineup anchor via free agency. Things would have to come together nicely, but the Cubs have already taken some calls on Hoerner, and those won't stop until the deadline comes--unless they move him first.

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[CubinNY]

I’m still beating the Kyle Teel for Nico drum. 

[Matt W]

Matt, do you advocate an approach where Morel would get an opportunity to establish himself at keystone, while also giving Shaw a bit more time in minors?

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, Matt W said:

Matt, do you advocate an approach where Morel would get an opportunity to establish himself at keystone, while also giving Shaw a bit more time in minors?

Yeah, second is the only place where Morel has looked comfortable, right? I would slot him there and see whether the reduced pressure and increased comfort got him back in touch with his offensive talent. In the meantime, I'd probably prep Shaw as a third baseman, understanding that his overall athletic profile would probably make second a natural fit if and when that turned out to be the best place for him.

[Matthew Trueblood]

3 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I’m still beating the Kyle Teel for Nico drum. 

I like that thought too. Catcher feels like an area of need, dunnit? Mo Baller probably isn't a true backstop.

[Billy62]

I am really on the fence here. Two weeks ago I would have said back up the truck and move them out. But then the club began hitting. The pitching was stellar, and even the bullpen started looking like it was breathing again. The team got the best of the Angels, swept the Orioles in Baltimore, and despite losing a doubleheader to the Cardinals, managed a 4-game split with them in St. Louis. So for the last 10 games they have been playing .700 ball. What does this mean? Maybe absolutely nothing. Or perhaps they have turned a corner and are ready to challenge for a playoff spot again. I am not opposed to the concept of dealing Nico, but I don't want the team to just give him away either. A solid catcher or a strong arm would certainly fill some voids, but Nico is a catalyst and if this team is finally making a move , would be a big part of it. But then again if this last 10 games is just a fluke and we go on another losing skid post-break, then its all academic and brings us back to square one. Are we buyers or sellers? Why did grandpa get me started with this team? 🙂

[Matt W]

16 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Yeah, second is the only place where Morel has looked comfortable, right? I would slot him there and see whether the reduced pressure and increased comfort got him back in touch with his offensive talent. In the meantime, I'd probably prep Shaw as a third baseman, understanding that his overall athletic profile would probably make second a natural fit if and when that turned out to be the best place for him.

Matt, does Paredes make any sense as an acquisition target or do you see him as another “half-measure”-type move for an org that needs more of a bona-fide star bat? I know there is also a part effect to consider with him.