Examining the Strengths and Present Weaknesses of the Cubs' Day One Draft Picks

[Jamie Cameron]

What can we make of the Cubs' selections on the first night of the 2024 MLB Draft? What are their strengths and opportunities as they transition into professional baseball? Let’s dig in.

Image courtesy of © Scott Kinser-USA TODAY Sports

The three-day mini-marathon that is the MLB Draft is in the books for 2024. .The Cubs, not blessed with a huge number of picks or a large bonus pool to leverage, leaned into the strength of the class on Day One, drafting two college bats. What can we make of their choices? What are each player's strengths and opportunities for improvement, as they embark on their pro careers?

For each pick, you’ll find their position, age, school, height, weight, handedness, and position on the final consensus board listed below their names.

Cam Smith, 14th Overall Pick
3B, 21, Florida State, 6’3, 230, R/R (14)
Trey Yesavage was the only available player who ranked higher on the final consensus board than Smith when the Cubs were up to pick at 14. While Chicago has had an affinity for power arms in recent drafts, Smith is an unsurprising pick who balances ACC performance, prospect pedigree, and projectable impact at the next level. He hit .387/.488/.654 with 16 home runs (39 extra-base hits), 44 walks, and 48 strikeouts in 66 games in 2024. Smith widened his base and lowered his hand setup in the batter's box, allowing him to access his power with a little more consistency.

Smith reworked his swing significantly between his freshman and (draft-eligible) sophomore season. He has a flattish bat path, and one wonders if the Cubs feel like there is more loft to be created, especially given that he simplified other aspects of his swing, including his two-strike approach. It’s likely that some work on the swing is coming, since the current version doesn’t appear to leverage his strong lower half as much as it could. 

In spite of all this, Smith has an argument to make for the most improved hitter in college baseball in 2024. His strikeout rate fell from north of 28% to 15%; he became more selective; and he found more contact. That level of improvement in two seasons of ACC play bodes well for his transition to professional baseball. All of this, by the way, is underpinned by a stellar Cape track record (22 extra-base hits and a .981 OPS in 44 games).

Some evaluators have argued that Smith’s size and physicality mean a move to first base or a corner outfield spot is likely. I disagree. His lateral movement, arm, and range all play at the hot corner. If he gets much bigger, range might be an issue, but Smith is an excellent athlete. I’d put my money on him staying put. Smith is one of my favorite bats in the class. He profiles as a high-floor everyday player who could tap into substantial in-game power with some polish to his swing.

Cole Mathis, 54th Overall Pick
INF, 20, 6’1, 210, R/R, College of Charleston (68)
Don’t let the position on the consensus board fool you. Mathis was one of the trendy analytical college bats of the 2024 class, and a player we highlighted as likely to be picked higher than the consensus. It’s some serious production (albeit at a smaller school) from a former two-way-player backed up by an otherworldly Cape track record (11 home runs, 1.048 OPS in 38 games)

Mathis was a two-way player until 2024, hitting 97 mph on the mound until switching to focus solely on hitting. After a relatively slow start, he mashed .335/.472/.650, with 14 home runs (33 XBH), 46 walks and 32 strikeouts in 52 games. Mathis is a pretty passive hitter, swinging around 20% less than the D1 average within the zone. That approach will likely change in pro ball as the pitching improves, but it's unlikely he's going to get himself out by chasing as soon as pro pitchers get ahold of him.

Mathis backs this up with good bat-to-ball skills, particularly in the zone. That tool plays well with his patience at the plate. While most of his college power was pull-side, his batted-ball data from the Cape suggests that he could have average to above-average power as a professional. This is more of a hitterish profile than a slugger, though, and Mathis has a number of tools at his disposal to hurt you offensively.

Defensively, Mathis might be a first baseman, and this is where the bat will need to be impactful for him to be a viable professional hitter. The Cubs don’t seem to be afraid of prospects whose swing needs an overhaul (Mathis has a noisy operation at the plate). In Smith and Mathis, they leaned into high-floored college bats on Day One.

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What did you make of the Cubs' pair of picks? Add to this discussion with a comment below.

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