Cubs' Inexperienced Corner Infielders Going in Two Different Defensive Directions

[RandallPnkFloyd]

The Chicago Cubs chose not to pursue an established player for their vacancies on the infield corners this winter. One of the young hitters they plugged in is adjusting and improving nicely. The other, however, is struggling mightily.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

The team deployed seven different players at first base in 2023, with Cody Bellinger’s 59 appearances leading the way. On the opposite side of the diamond, Nick Madrigal’s surprising defense led him to 72 appearances, most among the six players to appear there. Given Bellinger’s primary spot on the outfield grass and the minimal offensive upside presented by Madrigal, neither was projected to spend the bulk of 2024 in the same spot. 

Nevertheless, the Cubs insisted on giving Christopher Morel a shot at third base and acquired Michael Busch from the Los Angeles Dodgers to settle things at first. It was the former’s first opportunity at a full-time defensive home at the top level, while Busch had appeared only sparingly in the big leagues at all. His opportunities had come primarily at second and third base.

Offensive profiles probably had a say in the team’s aims for each spot. Each sports an offensive skill set well-suited for one of the corner spots. But each experiment was going to feature its own transitional period. The hope for Morel was that his arm and athleticism would eventually facilitate acceptable defense at the hot corner, especially with Dansby Swanson to his left. Even with some growing pains, the team hoped to see him figure it out. For Busch, it was more a process of elimination, given Morel being better-suited to third based on the two players' arm strength and the extremely established middle infield. 

I’m probably oversimplifying, but neither move was indefensible, in light of the Cubs’ apparent reluctance to sign Matt Chapman or push for a trade to land someone more established, like Pete Alonso. If they could provide at least some defensive stability, the offense could help to compensate for whatever shortcomings remained. Fast-forward from that spring mindset to July, and most questions seem to have been answered--on opposite ends of the spectrum.

Morel has been the worst defensive third baseman in baseball. Among 14 qualifiers, his -6 Fielding Run Value sits at the bottom. Only Boston’s Rafael Devers has a lower Defensive Runs Saved than Morel’s mark, which also sits at -6. Just in case there was any doubt about the more comprehensive metric, Outs Above Average doesn’t like him either. His -8 OAA mark sits not only as the worst among third basemen, but the fifth-worst among 260 qualifying defenders at any position.

There was some hope that maybe the eye test was more favorable than the metrics, especially as they were bogged down by his transitional period in April. However, even that can’t save Morel at this point. He’s a fourth-percentile defender, lacking in needed hands & instincts. Maybe they can try it again next spring (or later this summer) in right field, or something.

Morel’s woes, though, stand in sharp contrast to his counterpart on the other end of the apron. Busch has not only impressed offensively after a May slog, but has shown quality with the glove at first base.

Defensive metrics don’t love first basemen, but Busch has posted the fourth-best FRV at the position (3). For context, Carlos Santana & Christian Walker lead all players at the position, with 5. His OAA of 5 trails only those two, while his 4 DRS are tied for the second-most at the position. The eye test supports such an improvement as well, between picks/scoops and more general fielding tasks, like ranging to his right (and knowing when not to). He’s showcased enough growth that you feel comfortable with him at first base moving forward.

That presents a very interesting scenario for the Cubs. As few options as they have at third from a farm perspective, they have even fewer at first. Matt Mervis looks like a Quadruple-A player, and B.J. Murray Jr. is in the midst of a down year. It was Busch or an outside solution. At third, the team could eventually turn to Matt Shaw, so I suppose if you had to choose only one to succeed defensively, you’d prefer it to be Busch.

Regardless of all that, though, it’s fairly clear that the defensive outcomes have at least lent some level of clarity to what is needed in the future for this roster. Given Busch’s offensive upside and above-average defense, you can comfortably lock him in at the cold corner for the next few years. Third base doesn’t offer that same luxury. The Cubs will likely have a new player at the position next year. Whether that’s someone like Shaw or an outside solution remains to be seen, but while the context of positional adjustment was similar between Busch and Morel, it’s become very obvious that they're headed in opposite directions.

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[Bertz]

Yeah Morel looks to be settling in as a -10 3B.  That's a level where you shouldn't be afraid to let him play but below where you should be okay with him as an everyday option

I think the plan moving forward should be that one of these guys owns 1B or DH, and the other gets traded.  I don't think they're good enough to where we should consider both 1B and DH locked down, but they're also both too good to resign either to just taking Patrick Wisdom’s spot as the power bat off the bench.

As for which to keep, I think it'd be Busch if you made the call today, but it's not a slam dunk.  The results haven't been there for Morel this year but the arrows under the hood offensively are all pointing up.  I think I'd trade Morel more because other teams may value him as a 2B or COF and less because I'm certain Busch will out OPS him.