His Team Needs Him Badly, and Cody Bellinger is Trying to Answer the Call

[Matthew Trueblood]

You can see it in the way he's playing, but you can also see it in numbers, for proof. With the Chicago Cubs struggling to produce runs and their season in some early peril, their big free-agent prize is doing his utmost to put the team on his back.

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

The Cody Bellinger renaissance last season was rooted deeply in his altered two-strike approach. He drastically reduced his strikeout rate by putting his focus on getting the ball into play when the count reached two strikes. That adjustment begot a highly successful season, and history said he was likely to retain at least some of that improvement.

On the other hand, Bellinger made much lower-quality contact in 2023 than in his best seasons with the Dodgers, which is why he encountered a cold reception when he hit free agency and started shopping his services to the highest bidder. Teams didn't trust that he would continue to produce such impressive results, while not hitting the ball especially hard (or even hitting it hard especially often).

A couple of times over the offseason, Secretary of Cubs Twitter Agriculture and special North Side Baseball contributor Tommy Meyers mentioned his belief that Bellinger would need to adjust again in 2024, and specifically, that he could sustain his 2023 excellence by getting more aggressive early in counts, rather than waiting to protect only with two strikes against him.

By tweaking his approach (we know he identifies pitches just fine so this should be doable), he should be able to maintain his two-strike approach while doing more damage early in the count. This will improve contact quality and maintain contact rate, unlocking a next level.

— FullCountTommy (@FullCountTommy) December 15, 2023

Early this season, Bellinger was a fine hitter, but he didn't show much interest in fulfilling Full Count Tommy's glorious vision of a future with fewer full counts. He continued to take a highly selective approach early in counts and switch into a more aggressive (or, read another way, defensive) mode when pitchers put his back to the wall.

It's not that Bellinger was just up there trying to work walks until he got to two strikes, but he only swung at a small pool of pitches: those he thought he could pull in the air, up and in. Arguably, though, he was too focused on that, and ended up underneath the ball too often, rather than hitting it hard on a line.

Cody Bellinger, Through May 31

Split	Lo/Med/Hi Hit%	Swing%	Promising Cont. %	Hard Hit%	Sweet Spot%
0 & 1 Strikes	23/19/58	45	17	38	28
2 Strikes	25/40/35	74	26	26	37

It's not quite fair to suggest that this approach wasn't working. When the calendars flipped to June, Bellinger was hitting .260/.323/.458. Given the overall offensive environment in MLB so far in 2024, that was pretty good, and that goes double when you account for the fact that Bellinger had to miss time in the middle of that stretch with fractures in his ribcage.

What was working reasonably well for Bellinger, though, wasn't good enough for the Cubs, whose floundering offense needed a go-to guy. Some time in late May, Bellinger recognized that, and he flipped a switch. He's not passive in any way right now. He's decided to don the cape and be this team's superhero, if he possibly can.

There are pitches Bellinger showed very little willingness to attack over the first two months, when he still had strikes to play with, that he's now swinging viciously at. He's in playmaker mode. You can see it not only in the fact that he's swinging hard and doing it early in at-bats, but in how he comports himself once the ball leaves the bat.

These changes mean setting his sights in different parts of the zone, based on situation and the opposing pitcher's stuff, and covering the zone more completely. It's working nicely for him, over the first fortnight of this month.

Cody Bellinger, June 2024

Split	Lo/Med/Hi Hit%	Swing%	Promising Cont. %	Hard Hit%	Sweet Spot%
0 & 1 Strikes	18/35/47	49	24	41	35
2 Strikes	27/46/27	71	27	40	47

It wasn't until the count reached two strikes that Bellinger cashed in for a game-winning home run Wednesday night, but he's had good luck getting much more aggressive in other big situations recently.

Now, there's an obvious but important caveat to consider: Bellinger's aggressiveness borders on counterproductive at times. He's been bizarrely consistent if you break his performance for the season down by month, but it's a patina of consistency that you can see right through with some close inspection. What's really happening is a rapid, unpredictable, partially inscrutable evolution, whereby Bellinger is trying to become more of what he knows his team needs him to be: a proactive slugger. He's hitting very differently, by getting after the ball early in counts and seeking more damage, even if that's costing him some of the balanced aspects that defined him last year.

Month	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%	Hard-Hit%	Sweet Spot%
Mar./Apr,	97	0.226	0.32	0.44	16	11	37	33
May	98	0.29	0.327	0.473	16	5	30	30
June	43	0.3	0.326	0.45	21	2	41	41

By gearing up for a wider variety of pitches and locations with zero or one strike on him, Bellinger has seen his overall swing rate skyrocket, and he's more vulnerable to a good changeup than he is when he's in a more patient mindset.

This is still not the more wonderful version of Bellinger @FullCountTommy predicted we might see, but he's closing ground. If Bellinger can now adjust a bit more, to keep the newfound aggressiveness and better zone coverage without suddenly striking out a lot or something, he might have another second half akin to the one that made him the team's MVP last year. At the very least, he's materially changing, trying to get better by finding the hittable pitches early in at-bats.

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[Billy62]

This team is not scoring runs at any kind of even close to satisfactory pace. Sure, Bellinger is trying to lead the charge to bring the team back into contention. But he is not alone, the whole team seems snake bit. Add to that a bullpen that currently cannot hold leads. Take the series in Tampa for example. The starting nine played well enough to sweep this series. Instead the bullpen blew two late inning leads, and if it weren't for a laser beam from Bellinger, this team could have been swept in return. As it was they lost the series and continue to tumble into the depths of sub-mediocrity. If your not scoring runs, and the bullpen can't hold leads, you are not going to win many ballgames.