Nick Madrigal's Roster Utility Just Keeps Dwindling, Alongside His Skill Set

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His sterling defense in a first season-long exposure to a new position was, in a sense, a good enough reason to keep a former first-round pick and valued trade acquisition for a year. When even that little value bump won't stick to him anymore, though, all that's left to say is goodbye.

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve written about Nick Madrigal – and the Cubs’ third-base situation, at large – several times over the past several months. With Madrigal, in particular, I’ve been on different ends of the spectrum. From generous about his future to questioning his purpose on the roster, I’ve been willing to maintain some flexibility when it comes to the team’s shortest position player. 

Let's dispense with that, in favor of something more concrete: Nick Madrigal should not be a member of this Chicago Cubs roster.

It wasn’t one specific play that led to this idea taking root for me. That would be reactionary. Even if Madrigal’s error on a would-be double play proved to be the death knell for the Cubs on Monday afternoon, in the big picture, it’s the broader problem(s) with this team in recent days/weeks that make his ongoing presence untenable.

They can’t score runs. An important function of baseball, you need to score more runs than your opponent to generate wins. And if you’re not going to score runs, you absolutely need to prevent them at an elite level to have any hopes of making progress in the standings. By that definition, the Chicago Cubs have outgrown any justification for Nick Madrigal’s presence here. 

Offensively, he offers you very little--maybe even nothing. There are 329 players with at least 80 MLB plate appearances thus far in 2024. Madrigal’s .037 ISO is one of the five worst. His 18.1 HardHit% is one of the six worst. It’s soft contact, while putting the ball onto the ground almost 60 percent of the time. When your skill set requires you to hit your way on base, it would behoove you to… hit your way on base.

But with a player like Madrigal, there’s an excuse to be made for regular appearances if the defense is up to snuff. Especially when you’re coming off a strong defensive year at a position where the starter is still making a transition to full-time duty. It’s logical. However, even that has run its course to a pretty astonishing extent.

Again, Madrigal had a nice 2023 in his first year at third base. He posted a FRV of 8, an OAA of 10, and a DRS of 8. Regardless of your metric of choice, he was great. There were those who were less sure of the metrics based on the eye test. Regression has largely proven those folks to be correct.

Madrigal’s broad metrics include a -2 in each of FRV & OAA and a flat 0 in DRS. More troubling, though, is his success rate at the hot corner. At third base, he’s maintaining a success rate of 69 percent against an estimated success rate of 74 percent. It’s worse when he has to move in either direction. To his right, his success rate is 67 percent against an 83 expected figure. To his left, it’s 67 percent and 73 percent expected. So while he’s been fine in plays that don’t require movement (75 percent vs. 73 percent expected), he hasn’t offered any real upside there. 

Morel has shown improvement but has still struggled with adjusting profitably in the big picture. If you’re looking for a defensive presence for late situations, shouldn’t that instead be going to defensive whiz Luis Vázquez, who has toiled purposelessly on this roster for the better part of a week? Simply put, the defensive justification for Madrigal being a part of this roster goes out the window between the overall output and the more specific miscues like we saw Monday.

When the Cubs hired Craig Counsell this winter, they positioned themselves as a serious baseball team. They didn’t follow that up with genuine roster upgrades that might have further cemented that mindset. I fear that continuing to roster Madrigal, in particular, unravels any hypothetical seriousness altogether.

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