Make It a Long, Slow Day Off: Cubs Resume Hard, Fast Schedule Friday

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Chicago Cubs' off day Thursday is their first since Apr. 22, and their last until May 19. They faced the ferocious heat of Dylan Cease and Robert Suárez against the Padres Wednesday, which is doubly difficult during such a long stretch with so few days off. Here's the thing: it's about to get worse.

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

On Wednesday, the Pittsburgh Pirates announced that Paul Skenes (the No. 1 overall pick in last year's MLB Draft and the best pitching prospect in baseball) will make his debut for them on Saturday. They didn't announce the corollary, but any simple reader of the schedule can see it: Skenes is almost certain to make his second career start against the Cubs, too, the following week. If the Pirates use a six-man rotation in the short term (which seems likely, given their current group and the caution with which they've handled their top young arms), the Cubs will also see flamethrowing rookie starter Jared Jones twice in the next 10 days.

Late in games against Pittsburgh, they'll see Aroldis Chapman and David Bednar. In between series against the Bucs, they'll take on Atlanta, and over the next fortnight, they could well see Chris Sale twice, too. That's after catching Dylan Cease for a second time this season on Wednesday. We've already discussed the fact that the Cubs are right in the middle of the toughest stretch on their entire season's schedule. The way the pitching matchups have fallen, especially around so few days off, has magnified that.

It's not a figment of your imagination or an overreliance on anecdote we're talking about, either. Cubs hitters have seen the hardest average fastballs of any team in baseball this season, at 94.9 miles per hour. They're trying to overcome seeing better velocity than anyone else, but that's very hard to do when your lineup isn't at full strength, and harder still when the schedule has been so grueling.

This can't excuse losing (or even eking out 2-1 wins) in all of the upcoming contests against overpowering aces. If the Cubs want to demonstrate that they're a playoff-caliber team, worth being taken seriously, they need to do so by putting together competitive at-bats and scoring some runs even against opposing aces. If they can't do that, anyone who has been feeling especially bullish on this first-place team should revise their estimates of their potential downward. While Cease pitched well Wednesday, the Cubs failed, too. A good team having a good day puts up a better fight than the one Chicago mounted, even when a good pitcher is going well.

It's hard (and often wrongheaded) to evaluate a lineup during a stretch of so few days off and so many formidable opponents, but the Cubs have put themselves in this position. They could have (and absolutely should have) spent anywhere from $25 million to $50 million more this winter to improve their offense and their pitching depth. If they had, they would have two more wins than they have now, and the stakes of the stretch just ahead would be lower--not just because a little bit higher a percentage of the wins needed to reach October would be in the bank, but because everyone could be more confident that the team is good enough to get that far.

As things stand, this is a team that entered the season with well-founded projections of a record right around .500. They've won games at a better clip than that so far, but some unsustainable performances are propping up the record, and some of the biggest questions about this team have yet to be answered in any encouraging degree. 

The Cubs have a tough draw here. It would be maximally fair to this roster to keep expectations low for the rest of the month, and to hope they can catch fire when the schedule softens up slightly in late May and June. The schedule doesn't soften as much as it used to, though, especially when it comes to fastball velocity, and this team isn't good enough to casually accept a prolonged period of mediocre play. The team will have to savor and make the most of its off day. Starting tomorrow, the job remains difficult, but there are no excuses for not getting it done--other than the undesirable one that they just aren't good enough.

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[Bertz]

Call me crazy but I'm not worried about Skenes.  The Pirates have babied him so excessively to start the year it's pretty doubtful he even goes a full 5.  Like long term yeah worry away, but in the immediate sense I'm just not quaking in my boots.

Really interesting note about the Cubs facing the top velo in the league.  I saw an Eno Sarris tweet earlier this week about the clubs facing the top stuff overall and was a bit surprised the Cubs weren't on there given the schedule so far.  This would suggest their slate has been quite tough and I'm not imagining things.