Article: Should Nick Madrigal Still Be the Backup Third Baseman?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Despite a huge play Wednesday night that briefly rescued him from the bad books of Cubs fans, the team's backup third baseman is becoming almost unplayable. Is that role also becoming less important, anyway?

Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

If you’ve followed this space for any length of time, you know the Chicago Cubs’ third base situation is something on which I’ve maintained a steady eye. That goes back to the spring, when the team decided to give Christopher Morel a more extended run there than we saw under the previous regime.

While Morel has grabbed the bulk of the starts, we’ve continued to see a good amount of Nick Madrigal. Patrick Wisdom – late to the party due to a back injury in March – has only been used sparingly, at least at third base. Overall, this is how the position’s distribution looked through April:

• Morel: 22 appearances, 22 starts
• Madrigal: 22 appearances, 9 starts
• Wisdom: 2 appearances, 0 starts

It’s at least slightly different than we may have anticipated. Instead of mixing in Morel on a more occasional basis, Craig Counsell has essentially handed over the reins of the position full-time from the jump. This has come primarily at Madrigal’s expense. He only has 39 plate appearances to date, being deployed mainly as a late-game defensive substitute. In the grand context of things, that certainly makes the most sense. It might just be a little sooner than we initially thought, given how much promise Madrigal did show with the glove in 2023. 

But Madrigal, of course, poses a very specific problem. As our friend Tommy Meyers (@FullCountTommy) pointed out, his offensive output as a Cub has not been anything resembling acceptable. And as unimpressive as the total body of work may be, 2024 specifically has been a rough stretch for our favorite small-in-stature Oregon State Beaver.

Madrigal’s offensive profile has always been that of the slap hitter. He’s contact-oriented, but doesn’t offer a ton otherwise. This year – albeit in that very small 39-PA sample – has shown how far south things can go when you don’t compensate with any other tools as a hitter. His slash includes a .194 average & .256 on-base percentage. He’s carrying a wRC+ of 49, thanks largely to the fact that he’s putting the ball on the ground 58.8 percent of the time and making hard contact at a mere 20.6 percent rate.

We shouldn't expect a ton from a bench bat--let alone Madrigal’s bat, specifically. Nor have we expected his offensive profile to fit that of a typical third baseman. But as Tommy pointed out as part of his Twitter discussion, it’s less a matter of him producing in a broad context and more a matter of if he’s even a rosterable player at this point. It’s a harsh question, but one with merit. 

There are 369 players who have at least 30 plate appearances to their name this season. Madrigal’s HardHit% is in the 40 lowest, while his GB% is in the 20 highest. His wRC+ ranks 322nd of that group. Given those data, we can't treat a .206 BABIP as a bad luck situation. Even with Madrigal’s impressive contact rate, he has to make better contact to be even moderately effective. His Soft% (20.6) is the highest it’s been since he made 109 plate appearances with the White Sox in 2020. While it’s by a slim margin, it's also notable that he’s making contact at the lowest rate of his career, while chasing at the highest.

The defense hasn’t even been there to compensate. He’s at a -2 Fielding Run Value, while also coming in below average in the more familiar OAA & DRS metrics. It’s a small sample, especially in a defensive context, but everything we’re discussing here is. He's looked better than that, by the eye test, and he saved the game for the team Wednesday night, but he has to be great to hold onto any value with his bat where it's been so far.

There’s obviously a world in which Nick Madrigal is a useful bench bat. Theoretically, his high-contact bat should be a boon for this group, given some of the whiff tendencies elsewhere on the roster. But his production has been even more absent than his previous injury-shortened seasons with the organization, and the trends don’t indicate a single thing that offers optimism.

My original intention here wasn’t to go in on Madrigal quite to that extent (Tommy covered that well enough on his own). I love living in the abstract world where maybe, potentially, hopefully, Madrigal can be a useful bench player. That isn’t reality right now. A team with division title aspirations shouldn’t live in that abstract world.

Instead, my intention here is to ponder exactly what the Cubs need out of Christopher Morel before they pivot to a more useful offensive player in a bench role. Unfortunately, the question is probably an unanswerable one. Morel’s defensive output this year doesn’t look terrific. His -3 FRV is tied as the league’s worst mark and Baseball Savant has him at a -5% success rate added. But Madrigal’s also at a -2 FRV & -8% success rate added. Our eyes tell us just how much improvement Morel has made in a short time. With that in mind, the Cubs could move on, like, tomorrow without their late-game third baseman and (probably) be just fine.

In that case, they’d also have to be comfortable moving forward with Wisdom as the No. 2 man at the position. He was well below average in 2022, across 900+ innings (-9 FRV) and half as bad in half the time in 2023 (-4 FRV). But you’re not necessarily talking about an extended run, either. The odd off day for Morel isn’t going to present many opportunities for Wisdom’s lackluster defense to hurt you. Plus, there’s always the opportunity for his career .254 ISO to offer literally anything at the plate, against the entirely bereft profile of Madrigal. If Madrigal’s defense was at the level the metrics showed us last year, this becomes a tougher argument to make. 

It's important to acknowledge that such a move isn’t imminent. The Cubs are running on a shorter bench at present, given the injuries to Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger. But their respective absences also illustrate the need for offensive depth. A lineup with Wisdom stepping in for Morel – even on the rarest of occasions – offers far more upside.

My ultimate point here is this: when healthy, Morel’s defense is reaching a point where he’s the full-time guy at the position. It won’t be without hiccups, but he’s reaching the point where Counsell won’t need the safety net of a late-game substitute. And that should lead to more direct opportunities for Wisdom to find his way into the lineup over Madrigal. If those opportunities become reality and the Cubs become healthy, I think then we’re reaching a point where the Cubs can be comfortable with a third base picture – on both sides of the ball – that doesn’t involve Madrigal.

And – perhaps unfortunately, given that alternate reality in which I’d prefer to live – the team will be better for it.

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[Bertz]

I do feel a bit bad for Madrigal because he does seem to perform when given regular playing time but when he's given regular playing time his hamstring explodes.

Ultimately I would probably swap in Mastrobuoni.  He's not going to give you as much contact or as much defense as Madrigal, but he's still a plus in both respects and he's a LHH bat.  With how well Tauchman is playing there aren't really any lefties on the bench when everyone is healthy.  And I don't really want Wisdom as the backup 3B.

Another thing I've been thinking about on the bench is something TT brought up in giving Curt Casali the 3rd catcher role.  Gomes is looking pretty cooked to start the year.  And realistically because Hoerner is a built in backup SS there's usually one bench spot that tends to go pretty neglected on this roster.  When Seiya and Bellinger are back I'd look to run a bench of:

Gomes, Casali, Mastro, Wisdom, Tauchman

Let Casali get as ingrained with the staff as possible and start picking up some Gomes starts.  If Yan isn't able to turn it round sometime in June we start really thinking about dropping down to an Amaya/Casali backstop pairing.

[squally1313]

36 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I do feel a bit bad for Madrigal because he does seem to perform when given regular playing time but when he's given regular playing time his hamstring explodes.

Ultimately I would probably swap in Mastrobuoni.  He's not going to give you as much contact or as much defense as Madrigal, but he's still a plus in both respects and he's a LHH bat.  With how well Tauchman is playing there aren't really any lefties on the bench when everyone is healthy.  And I don't really want Wisdom as the backup 3B.

Another thing I've been thinking about on the bench is something TT brought up in giving Curt Casali the 3rd catcher role.  Gomes is looking pretty cooked to start the year.  And realistically because Hoerner is a built in backup SS there's usually one bench spot that tends to go pretty neglected on this roster.  When Seiya and Bellinger are back I'd look to run a bench of:

Gomes, Casali, Mastro, Wisdom, Tauchman

Let Casali get as ingrained with the staff as possible and start picking up some Gomes starts.  If Yan isn't able to turn it round sometime in June we start really thinking about dropping down to an Amaya/Casali backstop pairing.

Are there a lot of opportunities for Wisdom in that scenario? He doesn't do enough defensively to be the guy to replace Morel late game, he's definitely second on the DH pecking order behind Tauchman against all lefties and most RHP (and probably behind Mastro for the rest). In a full strength line up you're basically just using him as a PH for the catcher a few times a week, and those situations (guys on base, high velocity reliever) tend to line up pretty badly, in my opinion, for a guy with a 35% K rate.

If we go three catchers, I probably lean Madrigal over Wisdom for the time being. I think Madrigal is a 'we need a ball in play' cheat code and the overall body of evidence at third still points to a solid upgrade defensively. It's entirely possible that that piece is a mirage and goes away, and then yeah, let's reconsider. But maybe by then we're in the thick of a division race and start prioritizing the contributions of a Caissie/PCA/etc over regular PAs. 

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Are there a lot of opportunities for Wisdom in that scenario? He doesn't do enough defensively to be the guy to replace Morel late game, he's definitely second on the DH pecking order behind Tauchman against all lefties and most RHP (and probably behind Mastro for the rest). In a full strength line up you're basically just using him as a PH for the catcher a few times a week, and those situations (guys on base, high velocity reliever) tend to line up pretty badly, in my opinion, for a guy with a 35% K rate.

If we go three catchers, I probably lean Madrigal over Wisdom for the time being. I think Madrigal is a 'we need a ball in play' cheat code and the overall body of evidence at third still points to a solid upgrade defensively. It's entirely possible that that piece is a mirage and goes away, and then yeah, let's reconsider. But maybe by then we're in the thick of a division race and start prioritizing the contributions of a Caissie/PCA/etc over regular PAs. 

I think you'd start Wisdom against most lefties and a decent number of righties, guys like Houser from yesterday.  

I do feel like his runway on this roster probably isn't too much longer though.  I'd be a little surprised if he was still around in August.  You've got the kids coming up behind him plus the strong possibility of a deadline acquisition.  That three catchers situation would certainly be temporary and free up one roster spot, but the other would have to come down between Wisdom’s power and someone like Madrigal or Mastrobuoni's versatility.

[squally1313]

Just now, Bertz said:

I think you'd start Wisdom against most lefties and a decent number of righties, guys like Houser from yesterday.  

I do feel like his runway on this roster probably isn't too much longer though.  I'd be a little surprised if he was still around in August.  You've got the kids coming up behind him plus the strong possibility of a deadline acquisition.  That three catchers situation would certainly be temporary and free up one roster spot, but the other would have to come down between Wisdom’s power and someone like Madrigal or Mastrobuoni's versatility.

I feel like that's taking too many ABs away from Tauchman, who is obviously unsustainably good right now but has made progress that should carry over (and was a 107 wRC already last year). Yeah, maybe you just make the outfield a four man rotation, even five man with Busch/Belli at first as an option....but I think all of those guys are definitively better than Wisdom.