Article: Nico Hoerner's Jekyll-And-Hyde Month Of April

[RandallPnkFloyd]

My favorite type of hitter is the patient one. I believe that hitters with strong plate discipline showcase demonstrate an intellectual component that I’m fascinated with. They’re calculated. At the same time, I can also appreciate the (seemingly rare) hitter who can swing at a majority of pitches but find himself on base with regularity all the same. 

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Nico Hoerner has been both of these hitters in a single month. 

On April 13^th, Hoerner was hitting .171. His wRC+ was only 77; his ISO was .024. In the broad way in which we typically evaluate hitters, it wasn’t getting off to the kind of start he might’ve aimed for. Especially given his revamped approach. While Hoerner was hitting only .171, his on-base percentage sat at .352. His walk rate (16.7 percent) exceeded his strikeout rate (13.0 percent). 

That was all intentional. Hoerner wanted to walk more. He wanted to work the count and find his way on base beyond hitting himself there. The results were part of that process. His Swing% was just 40.1, including a mere 23.1 on pitches outside the strike zone. He only whiffed at only 7.8 percent of pitches. That’s an important thing to note about his early-season output. The walk rate was a positive byproduct of limiting chase, even if the results in actually swinging the bat didn’t come along with it. Even with a Contact% lingering around 80, he was still able to contribute meaningfully. 

Since that point in the timeline, though, Hoerner has instead crept back toward his free-swinging ways. His Swing% has jumped up by a full 10 percent (50.3) over the past 10 or so days. Along with it, his O-Swing% crept up to 40.4. What’s absurd within that is that Hoerner hasn’t lost anything. In fact, he’s only gained traction. His Contact% is 89.7 over that stretch. His Whiff% is just 5.2 percent. It’s a stretch that’s brought his cumulative plate discipline figures closer in line with his career norms. As of this writing, his Swing% for the season sits at 44.8; his chase rate is 30.8, and his whiff rate is 6.6 percent.  His contact rate is 85.1. 

There’s some further nuance here, too. Hoerner is demonstrating slightly less hard contact now that he’s making more of it. The walk rate is also down to just 2.2 percent. He is, however, hitting to all fields with more regularity. All three parts of the field come in at least 30 percent in his distribution. His strikeout rate is also lower than it was in the first half of April. 

This recent stretch probably isn’t a version of Nico Hoerner that we should grow accustomed to. A Swing% at or above 50 hasn’t been on his stat sheet since 2019. He’s always been able to maintain patience and limit whiffs while simultaneously offering high contact rates. If anything, perhaps the revamped approach was an overcorrection for him, hoping to drive up the walk rate. I suppose there’s merit in trying to enhance a specific element of your game, especially given the depth offered by simply being a hitter in baseball. 

It’s something of a pick-your-poison situation. Do you want the patient hitter who walks a bunch and doesn’t strike out but whose patience might be limiting balls in play? Or do you want the contact-oriented approach, with only occasional walks but sprays hits all over the field? 

I imagine that’s the case for the Cubs’ skipper, too. Craig Counsell has intermittently deployed Hoerner out of the leadoff spot throughout the year, even before Ian Happ’s recent hamstring issue. I’d be willing to bet there’s merit in leading off your more aggressive contact monster and your uber-patient walk machine, depending on the matchup. When that’s appropriate, though, is well above my paygrade. 

View full article