Article: A First Bad Stretch for Michael Busch

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With any semblance of protection from the rest of the lineup dwindling due to injury, the Chicago Cubs' rookie slugger has hit a rough patch this week. Why? And how can he get out of it?

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

A stretch like this was always inevitable. Of course, to even call this a stretch would be, in fact, a stretch. But Michael Busch has gone four consecutive games without recording a hit. He’s struck out nine times across those four games, including eight in this three-game set against Houston. 

Not that this is cause for any panic. As recently as Saturday, Busch was slashing .328/.405/.656. His streak of five straight games with a home run was just a week and a half ago. He was, arguably, the most exciting hitter in the Cubs’ lineup. It is worthwhile, however, to take a quick glance under the hood of this last set of games, to see if there’s anything that we should maybe (at the very least) monitor.

There isn’t much you’re going to glean from such a small sample. Obviously. But there are at least a couple of things we can point to as interesting, given the lackluster outcomes. 

Fastballs have been, by a wide margin, the pitch type Busch has seen most often this year; he’s seen about 52% heaters, against roughly 30% and 18% breaking and offspeed, respectively. In the last four games, Busch has seen his lowest percentage of fastballs in consecutive games. He’s had individual games where opposing pitchers have avoided the hard stuff. This is the first instance of it happening over multiple games, though. The Marlins found a way to sequence and attack him; the Astros had one in advance.

If this is an adjustment that opposing pitchers are making, it’s a logical one. Breaking pitches are the group against which Busch has generated the least hard contact (though a 36.4 HardHit% is still cromulent). It’s also the subset most likely to generate a strikeout from Busch. He’s whiffing at those pitches at a 36.4% clip.

Busch has also expanded the zone more often than we had seen prior to the last few days. Impressively, his chase rate resisted the inflationary pressure of a long road trip, but after coming home and seeing teams switch up the mix against him, Busch's plate discipline has finally cracked a bit. His chase rate was 21.2% through Saturday, but since then, it's 33.3%. The overall Swing% is up only slightly, so the fact that he’s chasing and whiffing is at least notable.

Overall, it’s not as if a four-game stretch – even in the ultimate small sample that April represents – is going to damage Busch’s output. His ISO (.280) still sits in the top 10 among qualifying position players. His 4.5 pitches per plate appearance is still a mark well above league average. The strikeout rate is up there, but not skyrocketing horrifically in the wake of his brief (to date) struggles. The stat sheet still looks good in more places than it doesn’t. 

What becomes important for Busch at this point, though, is the adjustment to be made. We’ve seen him adjust at each level. Those adjustments have also come after an extended run, however (2021 to 2022 in Double-A, 2022 to 2023 in Triple-A). If the “trends” over a four-game sample are indicative of a larger adjustment on the part of opposing pitchers, then Busch is going to have to demonstrate the ability to make quick counteradjustments.

It’s not as if the Cubs have a wealth of thriving offensive talent at present. They might have had that on Opening Day, but now, too much of that talent is on the IL. Busch can (and likely will) adjust, if necessary. It just needs to happen fast, for this team.

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