Article: 2024 NL East Preview: Two Playoff Spots Spoken For?

[Jason Ross]

Here on Opening Day, we complete our preview of the rest of the National League by looking at the NL East. While the Braves are the presumptive favorites, teams just below them could create trouble for the Cubs in the Wild Card race, if they fail to grab the NL Central title.

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

In 2023, the powerful Atlanta Braves easily won the National League East. Winning a whopping 104 games, the Braves ran away with the division. Behind them, however, two teams finished over ,500 and a third was within shouting distance of a winning record. Despite the Braves walking away with the division, they fell early in the playoffs and the upstart Diamondbacks stole the NL pennant.

As we enter 2024, the division, on paper, should result in a similar outcome. If the Dodgers had the flashiest offseason in baseball, the Braves had the most utilitarian, re-signing a few of their own role players, bringing in a former top prospect and a former Cy Young winner, and overall, bolstering their already impressive roster. The East didn't see a ton of big acquisitions in the offseason outside of Atlanta, so the standings aren't likely to change much. With that said, there is plenty of intrigue in the division, especially if the Cubs fail to take the NL Central crown.

Atlanta Braves:
Projected Record: 97-65 (FanGraphs), 101-61 (Baseball Prospectus)
Offseason Moves:

• Notable Additions: Chris Sale, SP; Jarred Kelenic, OF; Aaron Bummer, LHP
• Notable Losses: Eddie Rosario, LF; Kirby Yates, RHP

Scouting Report:
This might be the deepest lineup in baseball. With superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. headlining the batting order, he's surrounded by All-Star-level talents such as catcher Sean Murphy, third baseman Austin Riley, second baseman Ozzie Albies, first baseman Matt Olson, and center fielder Michael Harris II. It's terrifying just thinking about it. Once you get past the upper crust, you're still left with players like 2023 breakout Orlando Arcia and former top prospect Jarred Kelenic. There's very little letup in the lineup, and it would take a massive rash of injuries to truly derail the offensive output. Will they be able to repeat 100 wins? I'm not sure it entirely matters, but the expectation is this team wins the division going away regardless.

The Big Question: Can the rotation stay healthy?
Behind their lineup, the Braves are a little thinner in the rotation, as they rely on a few oft-injured arms such as Max Fried and Chris Sale behind perennial Cy Young contender Spencer Strider. It was interesting to see a rotation that likely needed a bit more stability target Sale as their big anchor, but if he can stay healthy, the Braves could be a scary team on the mound, as well. 

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Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Record: 85-77 (FanGraphs), 84-78 (Baseball Prospectus)
Offseason Moves:

• Notable Additions: Spencer Turnbull, SP; Kolby Allard, RP; Whit Merrifield, UTIL
• Notable Losses: Rhys Hoskins, 1B; Craig Kimbrel, RHP

Scouting Report: 
Same old Phillies, really. They re-signed Aaron Nola to kickstart their offseason, but other than that, Dave Dombrowski played it very cool, for once. The team returns their entire core from the 2023 season--one that saw them win 90 games last year. Returning the vast majority of that team means this iteration will have similarly high expectations: to at least make the playoffs and give the Phillies a chance at a World Series run. The Fightin's may also get contributions from top prospects such as Mick Abel if they have troubles on the mound, and they have enough prospect depth to swing a midseason trade. This is a team who will be favorites for one of the coveted NL Wild Card spots this season.

The Big Question: Do the Phillies have enough? 
The Braves, on paper, are a juggernaut. The Dodgers, on paper, are a juggernaut. Can the Phillies make it a three-headed-monster on the top of the National League, or are they just not good enough? They were a bottom-five defensive team according to Defensive Runs Saved last season, and with an extra year of age on their key players' tires, they don't project to get any better. Can they legitimately hit and pitch well enough to make up for it? Or are the Phillies going to be the team of "just not enough"? They made the World Series in 2022, fizzled in the playoffs in 2023... Where do they go from here?

New York Mets
Projected Record: 81-81 (FanGraphs), 84-78 (Baseball Prospectus) 
Offseason Moves: 

 

• Notable Additions: J.D. Martinez, DH; Sean Manaea, SP; Luis Severino, SP; Harrison Bader, OF
• Notable Losses: None 

Scouting Report:
The Mets truly were the example of "winning the offseason does not equate to winning the regular season" in 2023. Making headlines with their big spending, the Mets fell well short of expectations and had a massive sell-off at the trade deadline. The 2024 version of the team is constructed very differently, bringing in David Stearns to run the show and signing some under-the-radar bounce-backs instead of the bona fide studs. There's still star power here, with Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and upstarts like Francisco Alvarez, but the team is going to need some positive outcomes (especially on the mound) to reach the playoffs. If the team can stay afloat long enough, they could make a run midseason, but they feel like they're more built to tread water and then sell off their one-year contracts in July instead. 

The Big Question: Can Stearns's pixie dust transfer to the Big Apple?
The biggest addition the Mets made this year is, arguably, Stearns. Coming over from Milwaukee, Stearns was the architect of a team who consistently outperformed projections and made do with less. The Mets are trying to do the same, relatively speaking, and how much Stearns is able to achieve with the Mets in 2024 will dictate how well they are positioned to either make a run at the playoffs or pivot toward the future come July. If he can pull an Andrew Friedman and turn the Mets into the Dodgers East, the National League will be in trouble.

Miami Marlins
Projected Record: 80-82 (FanGraphs), 80-82 (Baseball Prospectus)
Offseason Moves: 

• Notable Additions: Vidal Bruján, 2B; Christian Bethancourt, C
• Notable Losses: Jorge Soler, DH; David Robertson, RHP; Jacob Stallings, C

Scouting Report:
A big surprise in the 2023 season, the Marlins are coming off an over-.500 season. Buoyed by Luis Arráez and his insane bat-to-ball skills; what feels like an endless supply of young, interesting starting pitchers; and a few additions midseason (like slugging third baseman/first baseman Jake Burger), they made a run to the playoffs. However, after losing powerful designated hitter Jorge Soler, and with injuries to key arms such as Sandy Alcántara, this feel like a team poised to take a step back in the 2024 season. 

The Big Question: How do the Marlins overcome the loss of Sandy Alcántara?
The 2022 Cy Young Winner, Alcantara is set to miss the entirety of the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery. The sinker-changeup specialist was the anchor of the Marlins' rotation, and even though the results were a little disappointing last year (likely due to injury), he leaves behind a massive hole. The Marlins have arms such as Jesús Luzardo remaining, as well as intriguing arms like Eury Pérez (who is also dealing with elbow discomfort, but so far dodging the surgeon's scalpel), and Edward Cabrera, but how the team weathers the loss of their ace will determine their trajectory.

Washington Nationals
Projected Record: 66-96 (FanGraphs), 58-104 (Baseball Prospectus) 
Offseason Moves:

• Notable Additions: Joey Gallo, OF/1B; Nick Senzel, 3b/OF; Eddie Rosario, OF
• Notable Losses: Dominic Smith, 1B

Scouting Report:
The Nationals are the only team in the East who won't even tease the .500 mark in 2024. If not for the Rockies, they would be considered the worst team in the entire National League as we enter the 2024 season. That isn't to say there isn't some hope or some interesting players--just that the overall roster has plenty of holes in it. The Nats still have a few young players who are set to play most (if not all) of their 2024 on the parent club, such as shortstop CJ Abrams, catcher Keibert Ruiz and first baseman Joey Meneses, but overall, the roster has all of the hallmarks of a 65-win team (or worse). This will not be Washington's year.

The Big Question: How will the young players continue to develop? 
The Nationals may not have a great roster, but they do have some interesting players. The aforementioned Abrams and Ruiz will start the year in Washington, but the Nats also boast some of the best prospects in baseball--namely, outfielders James Wood and 2023 first-round selection Dylan Crews. Both are likely to make their debuts this summer, and could be followed by Robert Hassell, Brady House, and Cade Cavalli if they develop correctly. If the Nationals begin to get contributions from their top prospects, while they won't challenge for NL Wild Card glory in 2024, they could become a dark horse team to make life difficult for others at the tail end of the season.

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The East seems certain to claim one of the NL Wild Card berths, leaving just two for the other two divisions. After the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Giants all got significantly better late in the offseason, the lane is narrow for any NL Central team trying to squeeze into a Wild Card spot. The Cubs had better win the division, then.

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