Article: 5 Cubs Players You Should Target in 2024 Fantasy Baseball Drafts

[Josh Illes]

It's fantasy draft season. If you're like me, you want to win, and ideally, you want to do so while rostering some of your favorite North Siders. It just makes the long season more fun. Here are the best ways to do that in 2024.

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Have there been times when rostering too many Cubs has hurt me? Yes. Do I regret those times, though? Uh.. also yes. Like I said, I want to win. With that in mind, I’ve decided to take a look at some different types of leagues and isolate one Cubs player in each whom I feel is undervalued for the format, and should remain that way in most drafts--unless you are drafting with a bunch of other Cubs fans I suppose.

Standard Roto Redraft League Target: Nico Hoerner
Hoerner is eligible at both second base and shortstop in the vast majority of leagues heading into the 2024 season. He is currently being drafted as the 57th player overall, which makes him the fifth-ranked second baseman and the ninth shortstop off the board, according to FantasyPros ADP. Looking at ATC projections in a 5x5 format, Hoerner is projected for the following stat line:

84 Runs

9 HR

61 RBI

34 SB

.281 AVG

I think that is a fair projection for the most part, but I also believe that there is a decent chance that Hoerner will end up batting leadoff for this year’s team because, as this Matt Trueblood article points out, the adjustments that he made in his plate discipline over the second half of last season are in line with someone trying to make more contact at the expense of some power. Would this hurt his home run numbers? It could, but you’re not drafting him for home runs, you’re drafting him for what he can provide you in three categories: runs, steals, and batting average. Based on his growth as a hitter over the course of last season, I would expect all three of those statistics to be much better than the projections, while his home runs and RBIs will stay right in line with them. That would make him significantly more valuable than the 57th player off the board, possibly returning third-round value on a player you should be able to acquire in the fifth.

Points Leagues Target: Shota Imanaga
Some projection systems don’t like Imanaga, but they all agree that his strikeout totals will be high. Personally, especially after watching him so far this spring, I think those projections are going to end up being way too pessimistic, but in the spirit of this exercise I think it’s worth considering that they may end up being right. A lot of Japanese pitchers struggle at the beginning of their first season in the U.S., when they go from pitching every sixth day to every fifth. So, in season-long rotisserie leagues, for instance, you’d have to be a little hesitant about using him early in the year so you don’t carry those numbers all season long. 

Back to his whiffs, though, I would be willing to gamble that he will put up strikeout numbers similar to what he was putting up in Japan. His stuff is too good, and his preparation is also too good, for those numbers not to translate fluently. In points leagues, the value of a strikeout can often outweigh a pitcher’s rate-statistic weaknesses, so he should be going much higher than his current ADP, which is the 58th starting pitcher off the board.

To my point, so far in spring training, his totals are: 

       9 2/3 IP, 2 walks, 19 strikeouts

He is absolutely dealing. Grab him around SP 45 and thank me later.

 

Shota Imanaga was striking EVERYONE out ? pic.twitter.com/EJDSNfsv7s

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) March 14, 2024

Keeper League Target: Seiya Suzuki
This is my pick for breakout player on this Cubs team. His value heading into next season’s drafts will be significantly higher than his current value. So whatever you pay for him, whether it’s an eighth-round pick, a 10th-round pick, or an auction number around $16, he will be worth keeping at that price next season, in my estimation. 

The reason I believe this is simple. The projections are not properly accounting for the adjustment that Suzuki made near the beginning of August last season, an adjustment that we all saw happen, and one we all saw make a huge, tangible difference in his results. From April through the end of July, Suzuki hit 8 home runs in 376 plate appearances. In the final two months of the year, he hit 12 home runs in just 207 plate appearances. That home run rate over a full season would have netted him 33 dingers on the year, instead of the 20 with which he finished.

Projections for this year have him around 22 home runs for the year. Take the over, and take Suzuki.

Dynasty League Target: Cade Horton
I’ve made no secret of the fact that I’m extremely high on Cade Horton. For a pitcher of his caliber to be undervalued in dynasty leagues is a little unheard of, but the numbers are bearing out that he is going way too late in drafts. A quick comparison between him and another starting pitching prospect, Ricky Tiedemann, shows exactly what I am talking about. In most prospect rankings, Horton is above Tiedemann.

Rotoballer Fantasy ranked their top starting pitching prospects and has them as follows:

       2. Horton

       5. Tiedemann

MLB Pipeline rankings for overall prospects has it:

       26. Horton

       29. Tiedemann

Keith Law at The Athletic has them in his top 100 prospects as:

       49. Horton

       52. Tiedemann

My main point is that Horton is at least on par with Tiedemann, so their ADP should also be similar, right? Well, let’s take a look at it, according to FantasyPros:

       412. Tiedemann

       528. Horton

This just seems wrong, and while I think some of this is due to playing-time projections, I can’t in all honesty say that Tiedemann is more likely to pitch substantial innings in the majors than Horton this year. As a matter of fact, I think the Cubs will end up needing the services of Horton more than the Blue Jays need Tiedemann. To me, that makes Horton a steal at his ADP, and someone you can confidently take almost 120 picks earlier than he is currently being drafted. Feel free to bump him up your boards.

Two-Catcher Leagues: Miguel Amaya
Miguel Amaya is ready to become the number one catcher on the team, which could greatly increase his playing time. I wrote about this earlier this week. If you extrapolate Amaya’s baseline 5x5 numbers out to account for that increased playing time, it could look something like this:

56 Runs

15 HR

56 RBI

7 SB

.244 AVG

For reference, this is the full-season projection for the Rangers’ Jonah Heim:

56 Runs

18 HR

64 RBI

2 SB

.246 AVG

These numbers are shockingly similar, especially when you consider that Heim is being drafted 12th among catchers, whereas Amaya is going 44th. So, even in two catcher leagues, Amaya isn’t currently being drafted as a starter. None of this is a given, obviously, and if I took Amaya as my second catcher I would certainly make sure I had a backup plan. For instance, I may choose to roster both Amaya and Yan Gomes (going 30th among catchers), assuming I had room on my bench, and just see how it plays out. Honestly, if your league has daily moves, this strategy may work regardless of playing time, as new manager Craig Counsell seems a lot less likely to use his backup catcher as the DH than former manager David Ross, meaning you should know which of the two of them to start on your team every day.

Quick Fantasy Nuggets

- Christopher Morel will add 3B eligibility early in the season, making him eligible at 2B, OF, and 3B in most leagues. So if you are in a deep league and position flexibility matters, you should bump him up.

- In a Saves+Holds league, the value of Héctor Neris goes WAY up. He should be the primary eighth-inning guy when the team is ahead, and could vulture some saves when Adbert Alzolay is unavailable.

- In dynasty leagues, now is the time to pounce on Jefferson Rojas. He’s already made one huge offseason jump up the Cubs prospect rankings, and another stellar season could see him enter the overall MLB top-100 lists.

- I almost added a sixth option in the meat of this article for especially deep leagues, and if I had, my pick would have been Michael Busch. My reason for doing so would have been mostly based on playing time speculation, which I think will be much higher than most projection systems are giving him. I’m just unsure about what his production will be, so I didn’t add the category. But if you are in a super deep league, or an NL-only league, Busch should be drafted.

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What are some of the strategies that you’ve picked up on? Let me know in the comments. And good luck to those drafting this week!

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